Financials Ecopetrol S.A. Nyse

Equities

EC

US2791581091

Oil & Gas Exploration and Production

Market Closed - Nyse Other stock markets 16:00:02 2024-05-10 EDT			5-day change	1st Jan Change
11.64 ^USD	-0.94%		+0.87%	-2.35%

05-10	Canacol Energy not in talks with Ecopetrol over gas assets, chief executive says	RE
05-08	Colombia election authority magistrates call for probe into Petro's 2022 campaign	RE

Valuation

Fiscal Period: December	2019	2020	2021	2022	2023	2024	2025	2026
Capitalization ¹	136,301,843	92,306,980	110,603,909	99,502,401	96,213,066	93,129,313	-	-
Enterprise Value (EV) ¹	165,841,206	131,760,980	189,487,781	198,074,055	96,213,066	178,509,337	173,001,399	169,441,659
P/E ratio	10.3 x	58.2 x	6.63 x	3.15 x	-	4.46 x	4.48 x	3.99 x
Yield	5.43%	0.76%	9.03%	20.1%	-	14.2%	13.2%	16.8%
Capitalization / Revenue	1.92 x	1.85 x	1.21 x	0.62 x	0.67 x	0.68 x	0.7 x	0.72 x
EV / Revenue	2.34 x	2.63 x	2.07 x	1.24 x	0.67 x	1.3 x	1.31 x	1.31 x
EV / EBITDA	5.33 x	7.82 x	4.52 x	2.63 x	1.58 x	3.01 x	2.8 x	3.15 x
EV / FCF	11.9 x	-71.6 x	19.6 x	12.8 x	-	8.15 x	6.78 x	7.31 x
FCF Yield	8.38%	-1.4%	5.11%	7.83%	-	12.3%	14.7%	13.7%
Price to Book	-	-	1.54 x	1.15 x	-	0.99 x	-	-
Nbr of stocks (in thousands)	41,116,695	41,116,695	41,116,695	41,116,695	41,116,695	41,116,695	-	-
Reference price ²	3,315	2,245	2,690	2,420	2,340	2,265	2,265	2,265
Announcement Date	20-02-26	21-02-23	22-03-01	23-02-28	24-02-29	-	-	-

¹COP in Million²COP

Estimates

Income Statement Evolution (Annual data)

Fiscal Period: December	2019	2020	2021	2022	2023	2024	2025	2026
Net sales ¹	70,846,769	50,027,000	91,744,000	159,474,000	143,079,000	136,865,222	132,357,118	129,152,389
EBITDA ¹	31,108,000	16,840,000	41,967,000	75,244,000	60,718,000	59,310,661	61,739,327	53,851,088
EBIT ¹	22,163,000	7,633,000	29,594,000	60,381,000	43,746,000	44,461,280	41,067,871	38,063,047
Operating Margin	31.28%	15.26%	32.26%	37.86%	30.57%	32.49%	31.03%	29.47%
Earnings before Tax (EBT) ¹	19,099,000	4,710,000	26,322,000	54,026,000	36,788,000	30,624,832	38,454,300	37,351,937
Net income ¹	13,251,000	1,688,000	16,695,000	33,406,000	19,062,000	18,328,951	16,204,748	15,184,114
Net margin	18.7%	3.37%	18.2%	20.95%	13.32%	13.39%	12.24%	11.76%
EPS ²	322.3	38.60	406.0	768.7	-	507.4	505.4	567.4
Free Cash Flow ¹	13,900,915	-1,839,000	9,685,405	15,504,000	-	21,889,759	25,507,448	23,191,061
FCF margin	19.62%	-3.68%	10.56%	9.72%	-	15.99%	19.27%	17.96%
FCF Conversion (EBITDA)	44.69%	-	23.08%	20.6%	-	36.91%	41.31%	43.07%
FCF Conversion (Net income)	104.9%	-	58.01%	46.41%	-	119.43%	157.41%	152.73%
Dividend per Share ²	180.0	17.00	243.0	487.0	-	321.3	299.7	379.5
Announcement Date	20-02-26	21-02-23	22-03-01	23-02-28	24-02-29	-	-	-

¹COP in Million²COP

Estimates

Income Statement Evolution (Quarterly data)

Fiscal Period: December	2021 Q3	2021 Q4	2022 Q1	2022 Q2	2022 Q3	2022 Q4	2023 Q1	2023 Q2	2023 Q3	2023 Q4	2024 Q1	2024 Q2	2024 Q3	2024 Q4
Net sales ¹	23,333,000	31,761,000	32,473,000	43,885,000	43,438,336	39,678,000	38,853,579	34,300,183	35,130,000	34,794,000	31,302,000	32,036,276	32,491,472	32,090,385
EBITDA ¹	10,371,000	13,981,000	15,896,000	22,211,000	21,142,000	15,996,000	17,842,000	14,585,000	16,038,000	12,251,000	14,238,000	14,052,000	14,909,000	14,014,000
EBIT ¹	7,104,000	10,423,000	12,530,000	18,608,000	17,222,000	12,016,000	13,721,000	10,499,000	11,816,000	7,700,000	9,802,000	11,338,661	11,465,884	10,517,337
Operating Margin	30.45%	32.82%	38.59%	42.4%	39.65%	30.28%	35.31%	30.61%	33.64%	22.13%	31.31%	35.39%	35.29%	32.77%
Earnings before Tax (EBT) ¹	6,518,000	9,106,000	-	-	15,587,000	10,377,000	12,557,000	-	-	4,326,000	7,997,000	9,363,000	10,602,000	9,421,000
Net income ¹	3,807,000	6,077,000	6,573,000	10,470,000	9,513,000	6,851,000	5,660,000	4,087,000	5,086,000	4,228,000	4,012,000	5,133,405	5,568,223	5,056,074
Net margin	16.32%	19.13%	20.24%	23.86%	21.9%	17.27%	14.57%	11.92%	14.48%	12.15%	12.82%	16.02%	17.14%	15.76%
EPS ²	92.60	147.8	-	254.6	231.4	122.8	137.7	99.40	123.7	-	119.7	130.3	137.4	122.5
Dividend per Share	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
Announcement Date	21-11-09	22-03-01	22-05-11	22-08-03	22-11-08	23-02-28	23-05-10	23-08-08	23-11-07	24-02-29	24-05-07	-	-	-

¹COP in Million²COP

Estimates

Balance Sheet Analysis

Fiscal Period: December	2019	2020	2021	2022	2023	2024	2025	2026
Net Debt ¹	29,539,363	39,454,000	78,883,872	98,571,654	-	85,380,023	79,872,085	76,312,346
Net Cash position ¹	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
Leverage (Debt/EBITDA)	0.9496 x	2.343 x	1.88 x	1.31 x	-	1.44 x	1.294 x	1.417 x
Free Cash Flow ¹	13,900,915	-1,839,000	9,685,405	15,504,000	-	21,889,759	25,507,449	23,191,061
ROE (net income / shareholders' equity)	24.2%	3.11%	27%	43.2%	-	21.1%	21.4%	19.3%
ROA (Net income/ Total Assets)	10.3%	1.23%	8.7%	12.3%	-	7.93%	8.41%	8.24%
Assets ¹	129,262,159	137,436,900	191,837,016	272,608,575	-	231,076,034	192,684,275	184,250,868
Book Value Per Share ²	-	-	1,745	2,095	-	2,285	-	-
Cash Flow per Share ²	674.0	223.0	548.0	881.0	-	1,962	1,036	-
Capex ¹	13,810,852	11,026,000	12,850,616	20,731,000	-	22,142,497	21,407,510	19,858,581
Capex / Sales	19.49%	22.04%	14.01%	13%	-	16.18%	16.17%	15.38%
Announcement Date	20-02-26	21-02-23	22-03-01	23-02-28	24-02-29	-	-	-

¹COP in Million²COP

Estimates

EPS & Dividend

Year-on-year evolution of the PER

Year-on-year evolution of the Yield

Change in Enterprise Value/EBITDA

Ratings for Ecopetrol S.A.

Trading Rating

Investor Rating

ESG Refinitiv

More Ratings

Analysts' Consensus

Sell

Buy

Mean consensus

HOLD

Number of Analysts

Last Close Price

2,265 COP

Average target price

2,633 COP

Spread / Average Target

+16.24%

Consensus

EPS Revisions

Estimates Revisions

Quarterly earnings - Rate of surprise

Company calendar

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