CLASQUIN : 2023_01_19 Kepleur

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Clasquin Buy

France | Support services

Target Price:	EUR79.00
Current Price:	EUR56.40
Up/downside:	40.1%
Market data:	17 January 2023

Release date: 18 January 2023

Baptiste de Leudeville Equity Research Analyst [phone]

MCap: EUR129.1m

Bloomberg: ALCLA FP	Reuters: ALCLA.PA
Free float	45%
Avg. daily volume (EURm)	0.1
YTD abs performance	-5.4%
52-week high/low (EUR)	75.80/45.60

Expands in Africa

Key points:

• Clasquin is acquiring Timar Group, an important road transporter and logistics agent in Morocco and the Euromed region.
• With this deal, Clasquin extends its footprint in north Africa. The acquisition of Timar comes after a series of acquisitions made since 2015 to enhance services offering in Africa (LCI, Favat, Transport Petit International, CVL).

 Clasquin specifically spotted Africa/Maghreb as an axis for growth. The strategy is unfolding well.

Clasquin extends footprint in Africa

• Historically, Timar Group has operated mainly as a road transporter in Morocco (its core business). The company also offers freight forwarding services (sea and air freight) and logistics services (logistics, events logistics, and customs brokerage).
• Timar is a leader in transport and Logistics in Morocco where it has a strong footprint. The company is listed on the Casablanca stock exchange.
• The company employs 450 people across its 13 subsidiaries in Morocco, France, Portugal, Spain, Tunisia, Mauritania, Mali, Senegal, and the Ivory Coast.
• Clasquin and Timar have been cultivating a strong business relationship for few years, particularly since the 2015 takeover of LCI.
• With this acquisition, Clasquin:
• 1) strengthens its road brokerage/RORO business (RORO = Roll-on /Roll-off: refers to heavy goods vehicles or trailers driven on and off specifically designed chips). The road brokerage/RORO generated EUR12m in 2021, 10% of group's GP.
• 2) expands its service offering to Timar's existing clients, thus creating opportunities to grow these accounts.
• 3) acquires a valuable asset in North Africa (renowned brand, strong positionning, integrated network) as a platform to boost its development strategy in the Euromed region.
• The acquisition of Timar comes after a series of acquisitions made since 2015 to enhance the group's service offering in Africa (LCI, Favat, Transport Petit International, and CVL).
• Timar generated consolidated sales of EUR50m in 2021 (c. 7% of Clasquin's consolidated sales) and EUR1.1m in net profit (c. 6% of Clasquin's consolidated net profit).
• Clasquin is acquiring 63.57% of Timar's share capital from the Puech family. A mandatory takeover bid will follow on the remaining shares.
• Olivier Puech, the CEO will remain on board to ensure continuity of the business.
• We assume that Clasquin will spend c. EUR10m to acquire 100% of shares (c. 10x P/E).

KEPLER CHEUVREUX and the issuer have agreed that KEPLER CHEUVREUX will produce and disseminate investment research on the said issuer as a service to the issuer.

IMPORTANT. Please refer to the back of the report for important	keplercheuvreux.com
information and disclosures.	This research is the product of Kepler Cheuvreux, which is authorized and
regulated by the Autorité des Marchés Financiers in France.

This document is being provided for the exclusive use of Baptiste DE LEUDEVILLE - Kepler Cheuvreux - generated at 2023-01-19 10:02:01

Clasquin Buy | Target Price: EUR79.00

Appendix 1: Research framework			Last model update: 28 July 2022
		Investment case		Valuation Methodology
		Clasquin capitalises on its differentiating profile in the				DCF (7.7% WACC, 3% terminal growth, 13% conversion
		freight forwarding industry (medium-sized global player),				ratio).
		which enables it to offer end-to-end solutions like industry				Target multiple: 25x P/E on 2026E, corresponding to ten-
		giants do, but with higher degrees of customisation and			year average multiple (7.7% discount rate).

		flexibility.
			Risk to our rating
		In recent history, revenues at Clasquin have usually grown
			Lower freight rates due to overcapacity.
		faster than those of competitors.
		In 2021, as well as in the first half of 2022, the disrupted
		supply conditions appear supportive for Clasquin (and
		the freight forwarding industry in general). Clasquin is
		able to reap bigger profits per load as a result of a
		shortage of options for shippers. We anticipate a
		normalisation of gross profit yields from H2 2022.

Catalysts

• Surge in freight rates due to high demand and tight supplychain conditions.
• Broadening of offering (logistics, supply chain, digital offer).
• Business ramp-up in fast-growing regions for trade.

Appendix 2: Company description

Appendix 3: share price perf.

Clasquin is an air and sea freight forwarder with a focus on Asia/Europe flows.

Management	Hugues Morin, CEO | Philippe Lons, CFO | Laurence Ilhe, General Secretary
Key shareholders	Free float: 45.00% | Yves Revol: 41.90% | Employees: 12.60% | Others: 0.50%

Appendix 4: SWOT analysis

Strengths

 International integrated network (US, Europe, Asia).

• Differentiated profile (family-owned business, medium- size company).

 Diversified and balanced customer base (first customer <3% of GP).

 Strong presence in China.

Opportunities

 Disruption of global supply chain.

 Development of niche expertise /verticals (e.g. wine, fine arts).

 Broadening of offering (overseas logistics, consulting, etc.).

Weaknesses

 Limited presence in the US.

• Lower volume shipped, GP/volume, and conversion rate than competitors.

Threats

 Ukraine war/inflation and potential impact on consumption.

 High volatility of sea freight rates.

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This document is being provided for the exclusive use of Baptiste DE LEUDEVILLE - Kepler Cheuvreux - generated at 2023-01-19 10:02:01

Clasquin Buy | Target Price: EUR79.00

Appendix 5: Key financials								Last model update: 28 July 2022
								Market data date: 17 January 2023
FY to 31/12 (EUR)	12/17	12/18	12/19	12/20	12/21	12/22E	12/23E	12/24E	na	na
Income Statement (EURm)
Sales	290.6	308.3	331.3	392.0	752.2	847.8	795.1	776.1	na	na
% Change	23.6%	6.1%	7.4%	18.3%	91.9%	12.7%	-6.2%	-2.4%	na	na
EBITDA adjusted	7.4	9.3	13.9	16.7	38.2	39.2	33.8	30.7	na	na
EBITDA adj. margin (%)	2.5%	3.0%	4.2%	4.3%	5.1%	4.6%	4.2%	4.0%	na	na
EBIT adjusted	5.4	5.8	8.3	9.6	27.3	32.3	27.1	24.1	na	na
EBIT adj. margin (%)	1.9%	1.9%	2.5%	2.5%	3.6%	3.8%	3.4%	3.1%	na	na
Net financial items & associates	0.8	0.8	1.1	-0.4	-0.3	-0.3	-0.3	-0.3	na	na
Others	-1.4	-1.1	-1.7	-1.2	-1.9	-1.9	-1.9	-1.9	na	na
Tax	-1.9	-2.1	-3.2	-2.6	-6.1	-9.9	-8.1	-7.2	na	na
Net profit from continuing operations	2.9	3.4	4.5	5.4	18.9	20.2	16.7	14.7	na	na
Net profit from discontinuing activities	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	na	na
Net profit before minorities	2.9	3.4	4.5	5.4	18.9	20.2	16.7	14.7	na	na
Net profit reported	2.5	2.8	3.9	5.1	17.4	18.7	15.2	13.2	na	na
Net profit adjusted	2.5	2.8	3.9	5.1	17.4	18.7	15.2	13.2	na	na
Cash Flow Statement (EURm)
Levered post tax CF before capex	2.4	4.4	16.2	2.1	15.5	23.7	26.2	22.7	na	na
Capex	-3.6	-3.6	-2.5	-1.5	-1.9	-3.4	-3.2	-3.1	na	na
Free cash flow	-1.2	0.8	13.7	0.6	13.6	20.3	23.0	19.6	na	na
Acquisitions & divestments	0.1	-1.8	-7.1	0.3	-0.1	0.0	0.0	0.0	na	na
Dividend paid	-1.9	-2.6	-1.7	-0.6	-3.2	-8.1	-8.1	-8.1	na	na
Others	-3.4	-2.1	-1.2	-2.5	-1.2	-0.8	-0.8	-0.8	na	na
Change in net financial debt	6.5	5.7	-3.7	2.2	-9.2	-11.4	-14.1	-10.7	na	na
Balance Sheet (EURm)
Intangible assets	19.6	22.0	30.6	29.6	32.2	31.2	30.1	29.0	na	na
Tangible assets	5.1	5.7	14.9	13.5	16.9	14.7	12.6	10.4	na	na
Financial & other non-current assets	2.8	2.6	2.3	2.8	2.5	2.5	2.5	2.5	na	na
Total shareholders' equity	22.9	24.5	26.8	30.9	45.4	57.6	66.2	72.9	na	na
Pension provisions	0.9	0.8	1.1	1.3	1.2	1.2	1.2	1.2	na	na
Liabilities and provisions	99.0	111.9	144.4	161.9	241.4	252.6	230.9	217.7	na	na
Net debt	13.6	16.8	40.0	30.0	27.8	16.4	2.3	-8.3	na	na
Net financial debt	12.7	16.0	29.3	19.8	15.5	4.1	-10.0	-20.7	na	na
IFRS 16 debt	0.0	0.0	9.7	9.0	11.1	11.1	11.1	11.1	na	na
Net working capital	8.7	11.3	22.1	17.9	31.6	35.6	33.4	33.6	na	na
Invested capital	33.3	39.0	67.7	61.0	80.7	81.5	76.1	73.1	na	na
Per share data (EUR)
EPS adjusted	1.08	1.21	1.68	2.22	7.60	8.17	6.63	5.76	na	na
EPS adj and fully diluted	1.08	1.21	1.68	2.21	7.53	8.10	6.57	5.71	na	na
% Change	56.5%	12.3%	38.1%	31.8%	240.8%	7.6%	-18.8%	-13.2%	na	na
EPS reported	1.08	1.21	1.68	2.22	7.60	8.17	6.63	5.76	na	na
Cash flow per share	1.04	1.92	7.01	0.91	6.79	10.36	11.46	9.93	na	na
Book value per share	8.57	9.31	9.53	11.68	17.07	22.39	26.17	29.08	na	na
Dividend per share	0.80	0.65	0.00	1.30	3.40	3.40	3.40	3.40	na	na
Number of shares, YE (m)	2.30	2.30	2.30	2.30	2.29	2.29	2.29	2.29	na	na
Ratios
ROE (%)	12.5%	13.6%	17.9%	21.0%	52.7%	41.4%	27.3%	20.9%	na	na
ROIC (%)	10.6%	9.8%	9.1%	10.1%	28.5%	26.8%	23.1%	21.7%	na	na
ND(F+IFRS16) / EBITDA (x)	1.7	1.7	2.8	1.7	0.7	0.4	0.0	-0.3	na	na
Gearing (%)	55.7%	65.2%	109.2%	63.9%	34.1%	7.1%	-15.1%	-28.4%	na	na
Valuation
P/E adjusted	30.7	30.1	20.6	13.8	7.0	6.9	8.5	9.8	na	na
P/E adjusted and fully diluted	30.7	30.1	20.6	13.9	7.0	7.0	8.6	9.9	na	na
P/BV	3.9	3.9	3.6	2.6	3.1	2.5	2.2	1.9	na	na
P/CF	31.9	19.0	4.9	33.6	7.8	5.4	4.9	5.7	na	na
Dividend yield (%)	2.4%	1.8%	0.0%	4.2%	6.4%	6.0%	6.0%	6.0%	na	na
FCF yield (%)	-1.6%	1.0%	17.1%	0.8%	11.2%	15.7%	17.8%	15.2%	na	na
EV/Sales	0.3	0.3	0.4	0.3	0.2	0.2	0.2	0.2	na	na
EV/EBITDA adj.	12.8	11.3	9.2	6.4	4.3	4.1	4.3	4.4	na	na
EV/EBIT adj.	17.3	18.1	15.4	11.0	6.0	4.9	5.4	5.6	na	na

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This document is being provided for the exclusive use of Baptiste DE LEUDEVILLE - Kepler Cheuvreux - generated at 2023-01-19 10:02:01

Clasquin Buy | Target Price: EUR79.00

Research ratings and important disclosures

The term "KEPLER CHEUVREUX" shall, unless the context otherwise requires, mean each of KEPLER CHEUVREUX and its affiliates, subsidiaries and related companies (see "Regulators" table below).

The investment recommendation(s) referred to in this report was (were) completed on 18/01/2023 07:47 (GMT) and was first disseminated on 18/01/2023 08:00 (GMT).

Unless otherwise stated, all prices are aligned with the "Market Data date" on the front page of this report.

Disclosure checklist - Potential conflict of interests

Company Name	ISIN	Disclosure
Clasquin	FR0004152882	KEPLER CHEUVREUX and the issuer have agreed that KEPLER CHEUVREUX will produce and disseminate investment
		research on the said issuer as a service to the issuer

Organizational and administrative arrangements to avoid and prevent conflicts of interests

KEPLER CHEUVREUX promotes and disseminates independent investment research and have implemented written procedures designed to identify and manage potential conflicts of interest that arise in connection with its research business, which are available upon request. The KEPLER CHEUVREUX research analysts and other staff involved in issuing and disseminating research reports operate independently of KEPLER CHEUVREUX Investment Banking business. Information barriers and procedures are in place between the research analysts and staff involved in securities trading for the account of KEPLER CHEUVREUX or clients to ensure that price sensitive information is handled according to applicable laws and regulations.

It is Kepler Cheuvreux' policy not to disclose the rating to the issuer before publication and dissemination. Nevertheless, this document, in whole or in part, and with the exclusion of ratings, target prices and any other information that could lead to determine its valuation, may have been provided to the issuer prior to publication and dissemination, solely with the aim of verifying factual accuracy.

Please refer to www.keplercheuvreux.com for further information relating to research and conflict of interest management.

Analyst disclosures

The functional job title of the person(s) responsible for the recommendations contained in this report is Equity/Credit Research Analyst unless otherwise stated on the cover. Name of the Research Analyst(s): Baptiste de Leudeville

Regulation AC - Analyst Certification: Each Equity/Credit Research Analyst(s) listed on the front-page of this report, principally responsible for the preparation and content of all or any identified portion of this research report hereby certifies that, with respect to each issuer or security or any identified portion of the report with respect to an issuer or security that the equity research analyst covers in this research report, all of the views expressed in this research report accurately reflect their personal views about those issuer(s) or securities. Each Equity/Credit Research Analyst(s) also certifies that no part of their compensation was, is, or will be, directly or indirectly, related to the specific recommendation(s) or view(s) expressed by that equity research analyst in this research report.

Each Equity/Credit Research Analyst certifies that he is acting independently and impartially from KEPLER CHEUVREUX shareholders, directors and is not affected by any current or potential conflict of interest that may arise from any KEPLER CHEUVREUX activities.

Analyst Compensation: The research analyst(s) primarily responsible for the preparation of the content of the research report attest that no part of the analyst's(s') compensation was, is or will be, directly or indirectly, related to the specific recommendations expressed by the research analyst(s) in the research report. The research analyst's(s') compensation is, however, determined by the overall economic performance of KEPLER CHEUVREUX.

Registration of non-USAnalysts: Unless otherwise noted, the non-US analysts listed on the front of this report are employees of KEPLER CHEUVREUX, which is a non-US affiliate and parent company of Kepler Capital Markets, Inc. a SEC registered and FINRA member broker-dealer. Equity/Credit Research Analysts employed by KEPLER CHEUVREUX, are not registered/qualified as research analysts under FINRA/NYSE rules, may not be associated persons of Kepler Capital Markets, Inc. and may not be subject to NASD Rule 2711 and NYSE Rule 472 restrictions on communications with covered companies, public appearances, and trading securities held by a research analyst account.

Research ratings

Kepler Cheuvreux rating split as of 18 January 2023

Rating Breakdown	A	B
Buy	58%	70%
Hold	34%	27%
Reduce	7%	2%
Not Rated/Under Review/Accept Offer	1%	2%
Total	100%	100%
Source: Kepler Cheuvreux

1. % of all research recommendations
2. % of issuers to which material services of investment firms are supplied

12 months rating history

The below table shows the history of recommendations and target prices changes issued by KEPLER CHEUVREUX research department (Equity and Credit) over a 12 months period.

Company Name	Date	Business Line	Rating	Target Price	Closing Price
Clasquin (EUR)	07/04/2022 05:02	Equity Research	Buy	79.00	69.00
Credit research does not issue target prices. Left intentionally blank.

Please refer to the following link https://research.keplercheuvreux.com/disclosure/stock/ for a full list of investment recommendations issued over the last 12 months by the author(s) and contributor(s) of this report on any financial instruments.

Equity research

Rating system

KEPLER CHEUVREUX equity research ratings and target prices are issued in absolute terms, not relative to any given benchmark. A rating on a stock is set after assessing the twelve months expected upside or downside of the stock derived from the analyst's fair value (target price) and in the light of the risk profile of the company. Ratings are defined as follows:

Buy: The minimum expected upside is 10% over next 12 months (the minimum required upside could be higher in light of the company's risk profile).

Hold: The expected upside is below 10% (the expected upside could be higher in light of the company's risk profile).

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This document is being provided for the exclusive use of Baptiste DE LEUDEVILLE - Kepler Cheuvreux - generated at 2023-01-19 10:02:01

Clasquin Buy | Target Price: EUR79.00

Reduce: There is an expected downside.

Accept offer: In the context of a total or partial take-over bid, squeeze-out or similar share purchase proposals, the offer price is considered to be fairly valuing the shares.

Reject offer: In the context of a total or partial take-over bid, squeeze-out or similar share purchase proposals, the offered price is considered to be undervaluing the shares.

Under review: An event occurred with an expected significant impact on our target price and we cannot issue a recommendation before having processed that new information and/or without a new share price reference.

Not rated: The stock is not covered.

Restricted: A recommendation, target price and/or financial forecast is not disclosed further to compliance and/or other regulatory considerations. Due to share prices volatility, ratings and target prices may occasionally and temporarily be inconsistent with the above definition.

Valuation methodology and risks

Unless otherwise stated in this report, target prices and investment recommendations are determined based on fundamental research methodologies and relies on commonly used valuation methodologies such as Discounted Cash Flow (DCF), valuation multiples comparison with history and peers, Dividend Discount Model (DDM).

Valuation methodologies and models can be highly dependent on macroeconomic factors (such as the price of commodities, exchange rates and interest rates) as well as other external factors including taxation, regulation and geopolitical changes (such as tax policy changes, strikes or war). In addition, investors' confidence and market sentiment can affect the valuation of companies. The valuation is also based on expectations that might change rapidly and without notice, depending on developments specific to individual industries. Whichever valuation method is used there is a significant risk that the target price will not be achieved within the expected timeframe.

Unless otherwise stated, models used are proprietary. Additional information about the proprietary models used in this report is accessible on request.

KEPLER CHEUVREUX' equity research policy is to update research rating when it deems appropriate in the light of new findings, markets development and any relevant information that can impact the analyst's view and opinion.

Regulators

Location	Regulator	Abbreviation
KEPLER CHEUVREUX S.A - France	Autorité des Marchés Financiers	AMF
KEPLER CHEUVREUX, Madrid branch	Comisión Nacional del Mercado de Valores	CNMV
KEPLER CHEUVREUX, Frankfurt branch	Bundesanstalt für Finanzdienstleistungsaufsicht	BaFin
KEPLER CHEUVREUX, Milan branch	Commissione Nazionale per le Società e la Borsa	CONSOB
KEPLER CHEUVREUX, Amsterdam branch	Autoriteit Financiële Markten	AFM
KEPLER CHEUVREUX (Switzerland) SA, Zurich branch	Swiss Financial Market Supervisory Authority	FINMA
KEPLER CAPITAL MARKETS, Inc.	Financial Industry Regulatory Authority	FINRA
KEPLER CHEUVREUX, London branch	Financial Conduct Authority	FCA
KEPLER CHEUVREUX, Vienna branch	Austrian Financial Services Authority	FMA
KEPLER CHEUVREUX, Stockholm branch	Finansinspektionen	FI
KEPLER CHEUVREUX Oslo branch	Finanstilsynet	NFSA
KEPLER CHEUVREUX, Bruxelles branch	Autorité des Services et Marchés Financiers	FSMA

KEPLER CHEUVREUX is authorised and regulated by both Autorité de Contrôle Prudentiel and Autorité des Marchés Financiers.

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