Market Update-Europe expected to be in the green after a difficult week
June 17, 2024 at 02:02 am
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Europe's main stock markets are expected to open higher on Monday, following last week's sharp decline due to financial turbulence linked to the upcoming legislative elections in France.
Early indications suggest that the Paris CAC 40, which lost 2.66% on Friday, could gain 0.38% at the opening.
Futures contracts point to a rise of 0.23% for the Dax in Frankfurt, 0.39% for the FTSE in London and 0.35% for the Stoxx 600.
Risk appetite is expected to pick up on Monday after a difficult week for stock markets, particularly in France, where the prospect of a victory for far-right or left-wing parties in the parliamentary elections of June 30 and July 7 has led to considerable tension. In particular, the yield spread between French and German ten-year bonds DE10FR10=RR climbed to a seven-year high of over 82 basis points on Friday.
French banks were particularly hard hit, with BNP Paribas, Société Générale and Crédit Agricole losing between 12% and 16% last week, the biggest decline since the banking crisis of March 2023.
Against this backdrop of uncertainty, and with the first-round election campaign starting this Monday, European Central Bank (ECB) officials have no intention of discussing the use of its emergency bond-buying program to help France, and believe it is up to French politicians to reassure investors, five sources told Reuters.
On the macroeconomic front, markets will take note on Tuesday of final consumer price data for the eurozone, as well as US retail sales figures and interest rate decisions from several central banks.
STOCKS TO WATCH :
ON WALL STREET
The New York Stock Exchange ended mixed on Friday, with investors catching their breath after several sessions of consecutive gains.
The Dow Jones Index .DJI gave up 0.1%, the broader Standard & Poor's 500 .SPX was flat 0% and the Nasdaq Composite .IXIC advanced 0.1%.
ASIA
Asian stock markets retreated on Monday after two mixed Chinese economic indicators pointed to a sluggish recovery in the world's second-largest economy.
China's industrial output rose by 5.6% year-on-year in May, slowing from +6.7% in April, while house prices fell at their fastest pace in over 9 1/2 years, despite government efforts to support property developers.
On a more positive note, retail sales in China exceeded forecasts, rising by 3.7% in May.
In China, the Shanghai Stock Exchange composite index fell by 0.55% and the CSI 300 large-cap index dropped by 0.16%.
The Hong Kong Stock Exchange gained 0.19%.
The Tokyo Stock Exchange retreated by 1.86%, awaiting details of the next steps to be taken by the Bank of Japan, which announced on Friday that it would begin to reduce its bond purchases and that it would announce a detailed plan to reduce its balance sheet in July.
RATES/CHANGES
The yield on ten-year Treasuries rose by 3.7 basis points to 4.2460%.
On the currency markets, the dollar was stable against a basket of reference currencies, as was the euro, which had been battered last week by the political turmoil in France, trading at $1.0703.
OIL
Oil prices fell after data released on Friday showed a decline in US consumer sentiment, and as crude production rose in May in China, the world's largest importer of crude.
Brent crude declined by 0.4% to $82.32 a barrel, while West Texas Intermediate (WTI) lost 0.4% to $78.17.
MAIN ECONOMIC INDICATORS ON MONDAY JUNE 17: COUNTRY GMT INDICATOR PERIOD CONSENS PRECEDENT
US ENT EZ 09h Q1 growth n.a. +3.1% salaries
00 wages
Labor costs Q1 n.a. +3.4% US ENT
USA 12h Empire state index June -9.25 -15.60
30
(Written by Diana Mandiá, edited by Blandine Hénault)
BNP Paribas is France's largest banking group. Net banking product (NBP) breaks down by activity as follows:
- retail banking (54%): retail banking activity in France (24.1% of NBP), in Belgium (14.6%), and Italy (10.2%). The remainder of the NBP (51.1%) is from international activities and specialized financial services activities (consumer loans, real estate credit, leasing credit, car fleet management, computer equipment leasing);
- finance and investment banking (34.4%): consulting and capital market activities (83.7% of NBP; merger-acquisition consulting, activities related to the stock, interest, and exchange markets, etc.) and financing (16.3%; financing for acquisitions, projects, raw material transactions, etc.);
- institutional and private management and insurance (11.6%): asset management, private banking activity (No. 1 in France), real estate and on-line brokerage services, insurance and securities services (No. 1 in Europe for retained securities).
At the end of 2023, BNP Paribas was managing EUR 988.5 billion in current deposits and EUR 859.2 billion in current loans.
Net banking product is distributed geographically as follows: Europe, Middle East and Africa (82.9%), America (9.8%) and Asia/Pacific (7.3%).