By Kirk Maltais


--Wheat for March delivery fell 0.5%, to $7.58 a bushel on the Chicago Board of Trade on Friday after momentum coming from Russia's latest offensive in Ukraine lost steam midway through the trading session.

--Corn for March delivery was unchanged at $6.53 1/2 a bushel.

--Soybeans for January delivery rose 0.4% to $14.79 a bushel.


HIGHLIGHTS


Numb to Events: Developments in the Russia-Ukraine war temporarily propped up wheat futures. Russia targeted energy infrastructure in Kyiv and other cities in its latest barrage, according to The Wall Street Journal. However, that boost lost its potency throughout the trading session, resulting in wheat closing lower. "The market is numb to events in the Black Sea and if it can't get momentum today, we're not sure what will move this market," said Charlie Sernatinger of Marex in a note.

Stuck in Range: Soybeans moved higher, while corn and wheat lagged. For soybeans, there appears to be more enthusiasm among buyers, said Arlan Suderman of StoneX. "Buyers continue to emerge on soybean price breaks to support the oilseed," said Mr. Suderman in a note. However, he adds, that enthusiasm hasn't managed to push soybean prices past the $14.90-a-bushel mark. "The longer-term trend has been higher, but that trend has hit a significant ceiling, and thus far it has been unable to break through, as Chinese buying is expected to dry up quickly in the next few weeks," said Mr. Suderman.


INSIGHTS


Pressure to Continue: The surge of Covid-19 outbreaks in China after the government pulled back from its Covid-zero enforcement is expected to keep pressure on commodities as a whole through the first quarter of 2023, said Capital Economics in a note. "The slowdown will be accompanied by investor risk aversion, which will further undermine commodity prices," said the firm. "However, as global activity growth starts to recover from around the second quarter, we expect improved commodity demand growth and investor risk appetite to push prices higher." Natural gas is among the commodities likely to be an exception to this, with cold snaps expected to keep prices elevated amid tight global supply.

Lagging Progress: Grain traders this week put much of their focus on the outlook for the Argentinian crop, amid drought conditions there. The weather has slowed down the planting pace for corn and soybeans there, according to data from the Buenos Aires Grain Exchange. Only 43% of corn there has been planted so far, versus a three-year average of 55%. Soybeans, meanwhile, are 51% planted, versus a three-year average of 68%. Additionally, the exchange reports that the condition of wheat growing there is well below normal, with only roughly 10% of its wheat in good-or-excellent condition, down from over 60% last year.


AHEAD:


-The USDA will release its weekly grains export inspections report at 11 a.m. ET Monday.

--The EIA will release its weekly ethanol production and stocks report at 10:30 a.m. ET Wednesday.

--The USDA will release its weekly export sales report at 8:30 a.m. ET Thursday.

-The USDA will release its monthly Cold Storage report at 3 p.m. ET Thursday.

-The USDA will release its monthly Livestock Slaughter report at 3 p.m. ET Thursday.


Write to Kirk Maltais at kirk.maltais@wsj.com


(END) Dow Jones Newswires

12-16-22 1525ET