By Kirk Maltais


-Wheat for March delivery fell 3.2% to $5.96 1/2 a bushel, on the Chicago Board of Trade on Monday, falling back after the U.S. Department of Agriculture did not confirm any new export sales to China.

-Corn for March delivery fell 1.4% to $4.54 1/2 a bushel.

-Soybeans for March delivery fell 0.8% to $12.45 3/4 a bushel.


HIGHLIGHTS


In Absentia: CBOT wheat led the way lower for the agricultural complex, due in large part to a letdown over China's appetite for U.S. wheat exports. In recent weeks, China has been an active buyer of large volumes of these exports. However, rumors of further purchasing have proven incorrect, cutting into this momentum. "The market had rallied last week on rumors of China buying U.S. wheat - but there is no confirmation of new China buying," said Naomi Blohm of Total Farm Marketing in a note.

Chasing the Depths: Soybeans found their lowest level in over two years today. With ample rainfall arriving to Brazilian growing areas, fund traders are seen as adding short positions, according to the latest CFTC Commitment of Traders report issued on Friday. "There is no doubt that the soybean market has become oversold, but the market has shown little interest in any upward correction at this point," said Tomm Pfitzenmaier of Summit Commodity Brokerage in a note. "The improvement in the South American weather situation has the trade liquidating long positions with the funds establishing short positions in soybeans."

Fading System: The El Niño climate system is expected to fade as the winter progresses, potentially signaling an ideal planting season in the U.S. in April. "The current El Nino is still borderline strong, and it may still have some surprises for us, but the expectation is that it has peaked and that it will decline into the spring," said Arlan Suderman of StoneX in a note.


INSIGHT


New Figures: Multiple agencies are expected to report new estimates for the Brazilian crop size this week--which may have a big impact on the movement of CBOT grains going forward. Both the USDA and Brazilian crop agency Conab will be reporting--providing more clarity on how a recent run of wetter weather may have improved those crops. One question is how close the USDA and Conab estimates will be, as the USDA has had consistently higher estimates for Brazilian output.

A Good Start: The value of commodity markets have started 2024 with a near-record value, JPMorgan Global Commodities Research said in a note. The firm says that the total value of $1.15 trillion the commodities markets opened at in 2024 is second only to 2022. "This represented a 0.7% increase week over week, marking the first increase after two prior weeks of significant decline," JPMorgan said. Open interest in commodities has improved versus the end of 2023, with returning trader interest to energy futures offsetting lower metals and slightly lower agriculture open interest.


AHEAD


-The EIA will release its weekly ethanol production and stocks report at 10:30 a.m. ET Wednesday.

-The USDA will release its weekly export sales report at 8:30 a.m. ET Thursday.

-The USDA will release its monthly WASDE report at noon ET Friday.

-The USDA will release its quarterly grain stocks report at noon ET Friday.

-The CFTC will release its weekly Commitment of Traders report at 3:30 p.m. ET Friday.


Write to Kirk Maltais at kirk.maltais@wsj.com


(END) Dow Jones Newswires

01-08-24 1602ET