USDA Forecasts Wheat World Supply to Rise More Than Expected -- Update

By Paulo Trevisani

The U.S. Agriculture Department raised its estimate for world wheat inventories by more than analysts had expected, citing increases for India, Russia, and the EU.

In its latest monthly world supply and demand report, the USDA forecast 2023-24 global wheat ending stocks would be 270.7 million metric tons, up from its previous estimate of 264.3 million tons. Analysts polled by The Wall Street Journal had expected anything between 260 million and 267.3 million tons.

In the U.S., the USDA raised its estimate for wheat inventories, putting ending stocks at 562 million bushels, compared with 556 million bushels for the new crop in the May forecast. The new forecast was in line with WSJ consensus of 525 million to 627 million bushels.

The agency raised its estimates for 2023/24 U.S. soybean beginning and ending stocks. It forecast beginning stocks at 230 million bushels, up from May's estimate of 215 million bushels, and ending stocks at 350 million bushels, versus 335 million bushels previously.

"Higher beginning stocks reflect reduced exports for 2022/23, down 15 million bushels to 2.0 billion based on lower-than-expected shipments in May and competition from South America," the USDA said.

The USDA said it sees no use changes for the U.S. 2023/24 crop and increased supplies of soybeans.

Analysts had expected ending stocks between 269 million and 375 million bushels.

Soybeans futures on the Chicago Board of Trade were recently up 1.6%, to $13.85 a bushel, while corn was down 0.8%, to $6.06 a bushel, and wheat was up 0.1%, to $6.27 a bushel.

Write to Paulo Trevisani at [e-mail]

(END) Dow Jones Newswires

06-09-23 1308ET