By Kirk Maltais
--Corn for March delivery fell 1%, to $6.74 1/2 a bushel, on the Chicago Board of Trade on Thursday, dropping despite the USDA reporting strong corn export sales in this week's report.
--Wheat for March delivery were virtually unchanged at $7.60 a bushel.
--Soybeans for March delivery rose 0.9% to $15.34 1/4 a bushel.
HIGHLIGHTS
Not Quite Enough: Traders shrugged off a strong performance for corn in this week's export sales report from the USDA. While sales of 1.76 million metric tons across the 2022/23 and 2023/24 marketing years for the week ended Jan. 26 were strong for U.S. corn, traders poked holes in how relevant the figure is. "Overall sales were above a trade range, but crop-year to date commitments are still lagging," Terry Reilly of Futures International told the WSJ. Other factors, such as lower crude oil prices and a stronger U.S. dollar, also pressured corn for much of the day.
Fund Flow: The movement of money by fund traders again dictated the trend for grain futures today. "The CBOT has been about the flow of money since the start of the year with traders struggling with the back and forth of price -- depending on whether the money comes or leaves," said AgResource in a note. Grains have been catching the lift seen in the equity markets and elsewhere, on the sentiment of a slowing pace of interest rate increases by the Federal Reserve.
INSIGHT
Wet or Dry: Soybeans caught support from general uncertainty surrounding weather conditions - with forecasts oscillating between wet and dry, said Tomm Pfitzenmaier of Summit Commodity Brokerage. However, further upside for soybeans looks to be limited, Mr. Pfitzenmaier said. "The meal and soybean market are at historically high prices for this time of year and we would be cautious about chasing either market at these prices," he said in a note. Scattered showers are forecast for Argentina through the rest of the week, with another dry spell coming afterwards, says DTN in a forecast issued Thursday.
Tight Outlook: Officials at agriculture company Corteva say global grain and oilseed stocks are expected to remain tight because of dry weather in North America and Russia's war in Ukraine this past year. This is expected to be one of the best years ever for farm income, but below 2022, and demand for corn and soybean oil is expected to grow in 2023, CEO Chuck Magro said on a call with analysts. "Farmers are financially healthy with strong liquidity and they will continue to prioritize yield to meet market demand and offset inflationary pressures," he said.
Shipment Surge: Shipments of grains via rail in Canada are well-above where they were at this time last year, according to Canadian Pacific. In a statement, the railway says that over 15 million metric tons of grains have been shipped in the 2022/23 crop year, which is up 45% from this time last year. Additionally, 2.29 million tons were shipped in January alone, which is a record for the month. The increased rate of shipping comes after a $500 million investment by the rail service into higher-capacity hopper cars. Even so, weather issues in port cities like Vancouver are still impacting volumes seen this year, the railway said.
AHEAD
-The CFTC will release its weekly Commitment of Traders report at 3:30 p.m. ET Friday.
--The USDA will release its weekly grains export inspections report at 11 a.m. ET Monday.
--Green Plains Inc. will release its fourth-quarter earnings report at 6:30 a.m. ET Wednesday.
--Ingredion Inc. will release its fourth-quarter earnings report before the stock market opens Wednesday.
--Bunge Ltd. will release its fourth-quarter earnings report before the stock market opens Wednesday.
Patrick Thomas contributed to this article.
Write to Kirk Maltais at kirk.maltais@wsj.com
(END) Dow Jones Newswires
02-02-23 1532ET
