By Kirk Maltais


--Soybeans for November delivery rose 0.8% to $13.18 1/4 a bushel, on the Chicago Board of Trade on Thursday, with futures climbing on light volumes as traders got into position ahead of tomorrow's WASDE report.

--Corn for December delivery rose 0.4% to $4.96 1/4 a bushel.

--Wheat for September delivery rose 0.4% to $6.37 3/4 a bushel.


HIGHLIGHTS


Little Moved: Moves in grain futures today were limited, with traders mostly in position ahead of tomorrow's WASDE report from the USDA. 'Narrow action', or limited volumes in trading ahead of the big report, is typical before important WASDE reports like this one - which is expected to show how hot and dry weather has affected crops, and how storm systems that have passed through in recent weeks has helped revive those parched crops, said AgriSompo in a note.

Steady Footing: Today's export sales report from the USDA showed better business than in previous weeks, which was a steady source of support for grains. "Weekly export sales were neutral/slightly positive," said Rich Nelson of Allendale. "Along with positive recent change for U.S./Brazil pricing, we may make up a part of our current new crop corn/soybean export sales deficits." The USDA's weekly grain export inspections report has shown volumes being moved from U.S. ports being below last year's level, particularly for corn.

Cranking Up the Heat: The past two weeks have been wet and cooler in crop-growing regions of the U.S. - allowing for some drought-ridden crops to recover from that damage. While wet and cool conditions are expected to extend into next week, a new wave of heat is expected for crops after that, which provided grain futures with support. Near-term, the expected rainfall comes at a key time for development - with both corn and soybeans filling kernels/bean pods, said agricultural research firm DTN in its weather forecast.


INSIGHT


New Work-Around: Traders are watching to see how the introduction of 'temporary' shipping corridors in the Black Sea will play out - the chief question being if Russia will allow them to transit peacefully. Implementation of these corridors comes after Russia's exit from the Black Sea Grains Initiative, which was an effort to keep grain shipments moving overseas from Ukrainian ports. The effort stems from Ukraine working with the International Maritime Organization - although the safety of these ships cannot be guaranteed. "The IMO's involvement provides a sense of protection under international maritime law, although Ukraine clearly states that risks remain from mines in the water as well as possible Russian strikes," said Arlan Suderman of StoneX in a note.

Mixed Bag: Extreme drought conditions are spreading in some Corn Belt states, according to data from the U.S. Drought Monitor. The agency forecasts that this week, extreme and exceptional dryness is expected to expand in states like Wisconsin, Nebraska, and Texas. Meanwhile, drought conditions in Missouri appear to be easing, and Indiana and Ohio both look largely out of the woods when it comes to drought. Adequate precipitation has been a focus of grain traders this summer.

Better Odds: Forecasters are increasing the odds that El Niño will turn 'strong' this fall and winter - assessing a 66% chance that the system will increase average water temperature by over 1.5 degrees Celsius in October and November. A deviation over the 1.5 degrees Celsius mark is considered 'strong' by the National Weather Service's Climate Prediction Center. The odds of a strong event decreases in the following months. El Niño is a factor affecting weather in crop-growing areas, turning many areas around the world drier.


AHEAD


--The USDA will release its monthly World Supply and Demand Estimates report at noon ET Friday.

--The CFTC will release its weekly Commitment of Traders report at 3:30 p.m. ET Friday.

--The USDA will release its weekly grains export inspections report at 11 a.m. ET Monday.

--The USDA will release its weekly crop progress report at 4 p.m. ET Monday.


Write to Kirk Maltais at kirk.maltais@wsj.com


(END) Dow Jones Newswires

08-10-23 1510ET