By Kirk Maltais


--Corn for December delivery rose 1.1%, to $4.88 1/2 a bushel, on the Chicago Board of Trade on Thursday, with traders short-covering ahead of tomorrow's quarterly Grain Stocks report from the USDA.

--Wheat for December delivery fell 0.1%, to $5.78 3/4 a bushel.

--Soybeans for November delivery fell 0.2%, to $13.00 1/2 a bushel.


HIGHLIGHTS


Last Day: Trading volumes were light, with one last day of positioning ahead of tomorrow's quarterly Grain Stocks report from the USDA. This data typically introduces "market-moving surprises that often defy logic," said Arlan Suderman of StoneX in a note. The report is regarded as an important indicator of what the balance sheet for U.S. crops looks like. Trading was also affected by the coming end of the month and quarter, which introduced volatility to futures movement.

Shutdown Looms: A potential shutdown of the U.S. government at the start of next month is another factor behind the pressure seen in CBOT grain futures, with a potential absence of reports from the USDA coming at a critical time in the season, as farmers harvest and begin selling crops and analysts attempt to understand the size of U.S. farm output. "USDA/NASS could be impacted which could halt the reporting of U.S. export sales/shipments and key monthly crop reports," said AgResource in a note.


INSIGHT


Planting Commences: Planting for the next crop of corn and soybeans in South America got underway this month, and will have optimal weather conditions in the coming days, said DTN in its updated weather forecast. The firm said a front entering Brazil has introduced new rainfall to planting areas, but overall conditions remain good. In Argentina, DTN says that dryness this weekend will allow farmers into their fields, but rainfall coming next week looks well-timed to provide much-needed soil moisture to nascent crops, the chief competitors to U.S. crops on the export market.

Looking Shallow: Low water levels on the Mississippi River are creating issues for navigating barges, which in turn is driving up farmers' transportation costs and may affect demand for U.S. grain exports. In order to compensate for lower water levels, barge loads are down by roughly 25%, and average tow sizes are reduced by as much as over a third. "Combined, this means more barges will be needed to move the same quantity of products...pressuring capacity and slowing downstream user efficiency," said the American Farm Bureau Federation in a note, adding that this is "especially problematic" as farmers move into the heart of harvest season.

Mixed Bag: Export sales of U.S. soybeans disappointed some traders as results were on the low-end of estimates. The USDA reported soybean sales for the 2023/24 marketing year of 672,200 metric tons for the week ended September 21. Weighing on results was a cancellation of 334,800 tons of soybeans previously sold to unknown destinations, with the 'unknown destinations' moniker generally understood by traders and analysts to mean China. In a note following the report's release, Doug Bergman of RCM Alternatives described this week's figure as "weaker bean exports than we'd like to see this time of the year."


AHEAD


--The USDA will release its quarterly Grain Stocks report at noon ET Friday.

--The USDA will release its monthly Agricultural Prices report at 3 p.m. ET Friday.

--The CFTC will release its weekly Commitment of Traders report at 3:30 p.m. ET Friday.


Write to Kirk Maltais at kirk.maltais@wsj.com


(END) Dow Jones Newswires

09-28-23 1548ET