Talking Points
- AUDUSD opening range takes shape above key support
- Scalp bias bearish sub-9440
- Event risk on from China, US & Australia
AUDUSD Daily Chart
![AUDUSD July Range Targets Key Support- Shorts Favored Sub 9440](https://media.dailyfx.com/illustrations/2014/07/08/Forex-AUDUSD-July-Range-Targets-Key-Support--Shorts-Favored-Sub-9440_body_Picture_2.png)
Chart Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0
Technical Outlook
- AUDUSD reversal off Fibonacci resistance / weekly key outside reversal last week- bearish
- Monthly opening range set between 9330-9500- bearish invalidation
- Key support 9307/9337- bullish invalidation
- Subsequent support targets at 9208/18, 9080
- Breach above June ORH targets objectives at 9568, 9620
- Daily momentum divergence / support trigger break- bearish
- Event Risk Ahead: Chinese Inflation data tonight and FOMC Minutes & Australian Employment tomorrow
AUDUSD 30min Chart
![AUDUSD July Range Targets Key Support- Shorts Favored Sub 9440](https://media.dailyfx.com/illustrations/2014/07/08/Forex-AUDUSD-July-Range-Targets-Key-Support--Shorts-Favored-Sub-9440_body_Picture_1.png)
Notes: Last week’s key outside weekly reversal candle at Fibonacci resistance shifts our broader focus to the downside for the Aussie. With that in mind, there remains some key support barriers the pair would need to get through to validate the reversal, the first of which is the 9308/37 support zone. With the monthly opening range now set, we’ll look for a break of this region to validate our bias heading into the close of July trade with short scalps favored sub-9440.
Bottom line: we’ll look to sell rallies while below the monthly high with only a breach invalidating our medium-term bias. Divergence on the intra-day momentum signature suggests the pair may be vulnerable for a turn-over heading into Asia trade. Caution is warranted heading into the middle of the week with Chinese CPI data tonight and FOMC minutes/Australian employment tomorrow likely to fuel added volatility in the pair. Follow the progress of this trade setup and more throughout the trading week with DailyFX on Demand.
* It’s extremely important to give added consideration regarding the timing of intra-day scalps with the opening ranges on a session & hourly basis offering further clarity on intra-day biases.
Key Threshold Grid
Entry/Exit Targets | Timeframe | Level | Technical Relevance |
Resistance Target 1 | 30min | 9415 | 50% Retracement |
Bearish Invalidation | Daily / 30min | 9437/42 | 61.8% Retrace / June, Nov Swing Highs / (7/2 close) |
Break Target 1 | 30min | 9460/66 | 78.6% Retracement / April High / Weekly R1 |
Break Target 2 | Daily / 30min | 9498-9504 | 76.4% Retracement / July ORH |
Break Target 3 | Daily / 30min | 9568/75 | 1.618% Extension / Weekly R2 |
Break Target 4 | Daily / 30min | 9618/32 | 50% & 88.6% Retracement(s) / Oct 23rd Close |
Support Target 1 | 30min | 9395 | 38.2% Retrace / Asia High |
Support Target 2 | 30min | 9369 | 23.6% Retracement |
Bullish Invalidation | Daily / 30min | 9337/40 | Weekly, July ORL / 61.8% Retrace / TL Sup / 50DMA |
Break Target 1 | Daily / 30min | 9321 | 61.8% Retrace / June Swing Low |
Break Target 2 | Daily | 9308 | 100% Ext / July 2013 High (9317) |
Break Target 3 | 30min | 9271 | 78.6% Retracement |
Break Target 4 | 30min | 9242 | 88.6% Retracement |
Break Target 5 | Daily / 30min | 9207/17 | 61.8% & 50% Retrace / 78.6% Ext / April, May Low |
Average True Range | Daily (20) | 58 | Profit Targets 15-17pips |
*ORH: Opening Range High
*ORL: Opening Range Low
Other Setups in Play:
- EURUSD July Opening Range Play- Shorts Favored Sub 1.37
- AUDCHF Rebounds Off Key Support- Longs Favored Above 8360
- GBPJPY Testing Key Inflection Zone- Shorts at Risk Above 172.70
- GBPCAD Scalps Target Weekly Range- Bullish Bias at Risk Sub 1.8480
- GBPAUD Scalps Favor Buying Dips Post June Range Break
- GBPNZD Weekly Opening Range Play- 1.96 Resistance in Focus
- AUDJPY Long-bias at Risk Sub 96- BoJ / China Data On Tap
- EURAUD at Fresh 2014 Lows- Reversal Risk High Above 1.4420/40
---Written by Michael Boutros, Currency Strategist with DailyFX
For updates on this scalp and more setups follow him on Twitter @MBForex
To contact Michael email mboutros@dailyfx.com or Click Here to be added to his email distribution list
Join Michael for Live Scalping Webinars this week Wednesday & Thursday on DailyFX Plus (Exclusive of Live Clients) at 12:30 GMT (8:30ET)
Interested in learning about Fibonacci? Watch this Video
original source