* Brazil's Mato Grosso soy production sees significant yield drop
* Wheat traders eye Black Sea production estimates
* Red Sea conflicts lengthening freight transit times
(Rewrites throughout, adds quote, updates prices, changes byline, adds bullets, changes headline, changes dateline from PARIS/HAMBURG)
CHICAGO, Dec 20 (Reuters) -
Chicago soybean futures were mixed to lower on Wednesday, as market participants kept tracking weather forecasts in drought-hit Brazil and adjusted their positions ahead of the holidays.
Corn futures were down on choppy trading, pressured by weakness in the wheat market, analysts said.
Questions over production problems in top soybean exporter Brazil continue, as farmers there have struggled with an El Niño-related drought and
are expected to reap
153 million metric tons of soybeans in the 2023/24 cycle - 5 million tons below a previous forecast.
Recent rainfall has been below average over most of the country, and top farm state Mato Grosso is forecast to "drop around 20% in relation to (the state's yield) potential," said Itau BBA analysts.
But whether production levels will drop sharply enough to have international buyers turning to U.S. exports to fill the gap is still unknown, say market analysts.
Meanwhile, growing conflicts in the Red Sea are leading to longer freight transit times, and may create temporary tightening of commodity supplies, said StoneX chief commodities economist Arlan Suderman.
Iran-backed Houthi militants in Yemen have
stepped up attacks on vessels
in the Red Sea to show
support for Hamas
as Israel's military offensive in Gaza continues.
It also "does increase the costs of the commodities and goods that are delivered" Suderman said, noting that such problems are also being amplified by low-water levels in the Panama Canal. "That adds an element to inflationary pressures, while also increasing uncertainty in the supply chains."
The most-active soybean contract on the Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT) was up 0.21% at $13.15-1/4 a bushel by 1632 GMT. CBOT corn was down 0.32% to $4.71-1/4 a bushel.
Meanwhile, wheat futures eased as analysts boosted Black Sea production estimates, traders said.
CBOT's most-active wheat contract was down 1.08% to $6.16 a bushel. (Additional reporting by Peter Hobson in Canberra and Sybille de La Hamaide in Paris; Editing by Rashmi Aich, Sonia Cheema, Shweta Agarwal and David Gregorio)
