Speculation about a rate cut in the spring of 2024 has redoubled following statements made on Tuesday by a member of the FED - Christopher Waller - who spoke of an easing in the cost of money if all conditions are met in 2024... while reminding us that 'for the time being, inflation is still too high'. while reminding us that 'for the time being, inflation is still too high'.

The Dollar resumes its slide and the $-Index falls below 103 (-0.30% to 102.9), while the Euro rises symmetrically by +0.27% to 1.0987, the Swiss Franc by +0.2% and the British Pound by +0.5%.
And for the second session in a row, the Yen broke away with a gain of +0.75% to 147.50, a "high" since September 18.

US "macro" figures seem to have weighed rather against the greenback: prices of single-family homes continued to rise in September in the USA, albeit at a slower pace than expected, according to the S&P/Case-Shiller index published on Tuesday.

This index, which measures price variations in the country's 20 main urban areas, rose by 0.3% month-on-month, below the 0.7% rate expected by economists.

The Conference Board's closely-watched 'confidence' barometer rebounded by +3pts in November (after 3 months of decline) on the back of a small brightening in household expectations.

According to the monthly survey by the Conference Board employers' organization, the confidence index reached 102 this month, compared with 99.1 (revised from 102.6) in October.

The expectations sub-index improved to 77.8 from 72.7 last month, while the current situation sub-index eased to 138.2 from 138.6

The expectations sub-index fell below the 80-point threshold for the 3rd consecutive month, a level that usually heralds the onset of a recession within a year, warns ConfBoard.

According to the association, two out of three consumers now consider a recession to be 'very likely' or 'somewhat likely' over the next 12 months.


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