Performance summary* | 31 Aug 2016 |
NAV per share** (USD): | 0.869 |
Change (Quarter-on-quarter) | -7.96% |
Change - Adjusted (Quarter-on-quarter)*** | 1.45% |
Total NAV** (USD 'm): | 342.2 |
Share price (USD): | 0.62 |
Market cap (USD 'm): | 238.0 |
Premium/(discount) | -28.7% |
* Figures in USD. Return percentages are for the period, not annualized ** NAV and NAV per share data are calculated on a quarterly basis *** Change of NAV per share adjusted for the distribution of capital in June 2016 (USD35.06m or USD0.0876 per share) |
As at 31 August 2016, VNL's unaudited net asset value (NAV) was USD342.2million or USD0.869 per share. VNL's share price increased 3.3% to USD0.62 from a closing price of USD0.60 in July 2016. The Company's share price to NAV discount is currently 28.7% compared to 31.0% in July 2016. VNL repurchased and cancelled 4.3 million ordinary shares in August 2016, bringing the total since October 2011 to 116.1 million ordinary shares or 23.2% of the total shares in issue prior to the commencement of the share buyback program.
Fund updateCumulative change (% change) | ||||
3mth | 1yr | 3yr | 5yr | |
NAV per share | -8.0 | -3.2 | -10.4 | -35.1 |
NAV per share adjusted for the distribution of capital | 1.4 | 6.7 | -1.3 | -28.5 |
Share price | -8.8 | 17.0 | 44.6 | -18.4 |
Share price adjusted for the distribution of capital | 4.7 | 34.3 | 66.0 | -6.4 |
On 15 August 2016, VNL announced that it divested its stake in the Resort Project. VNL disposed of its entire stake at a total valuation 1.0% below the 30 June 2016 unaudited net asset value and 66.8% below the net asset value at the time of VNL's previous extraordinary general meeting (EGM) in November 2012, including adjustments for additional investments over this period. This transaction resulted in net cash proceeds of USD7.0 million to VNL which were received. The combined proceeds will be used to cover VNL's commitments including operating costs and distributions to shareholders between now and November 2016.
While the market remains buoyant there has been some discussion around liquidity in the property sector and whether banks look to reduce credit exposure in this sector in the next 6-12 months. Meanwhile, VNL continues to work on several disposals and expects to close these in the next two quarters. The board is continuing to develop
Quarterly performance history (% change) | |||||
2016 (Adjusted)*** | 2016 | 2015 | 2014 | 2013 | |
Q1 | 0.6 | 0.6 | -3.3 | -0.4 | -1.0 |
Q2 | 1.4 | -8.0 | 1.1 | 1.2 | -9.7 |
Q3 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.6 | 0.0 | -1.1 |
Q4 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 3.9 | 0.0 | -1.0 |
YTD | 2.1 | -7.4 | 2.2 | 0.8 | -12.4 |
*** Change of NAV per share adjusted for the distribution of capital in June 2016 (USD35.06m or USD0.0876 per share) |
the new strategy for a term that would commence at the next EGM likely to be held in
November 2016.
VNL's ongoing residential developments continued to record more sales in August to
capitalize on the improving market confidence, particularly at Azura in Danang and Dai Phuoc Lotus in Dong Nai. As at 31 August 2016, 100% of Azura Danang (225 apartment units) have been sold while apartment handovers to buyers and sale collections are still on schedule.
Real estate market updateDuring August 2016, new supply was limited across all segments due to "Ghost Month" in Vietnam (the seventh lunar month is seen to be an inauspicious time for making
Key investments | |||
Project | Location | Type | % portfolio NAV |
Pavilion Square | South | Mixed Use | 12.6% |
VinaSquare | South | Mixed Use | 12.4% |
Dai Phuoc Lotus | South | Township | 12.1% |
Times Square Hanoi | North | Mixed Use | 9.8% |
Aqua City | South | Township | 8.2% |
Trinity Garden | South | Residential | 7.5% |
Capital Square | Central | Mixed Use | 7.4% |
Green Park Estate | South | Mixed Use | 6.5% |
Phu Hoi City | South | Residential | 4.9% |
Total | 81.3% |
large purchases). However, according to CBRE Vietnam, absorption rates have remained stable because developers have provided more incentives, numerous promotional
NAV and share price performance Distribution of Capital in Jun 20161.40
1.20
1.00
0.80
0.60
0.40
0.20
-
0.87
0.62
VNL portfolio by sector (NAV %) VNL NAV by sector (USDm)Additional portfolio information | |
Current assets | 19 |
Divestments | 27 full and residential unit sales |
Debt | Fund level (ZDPs): 9.1% of NAV |
Project level (Bank): 11.6% of NAV | |
Shares outstanding | 383,838,461 |
Residential Mixed Use Township Hospitality
30.1%
3.1%
16.7%
50.1%
160
120
80
40
0
Hospitality Township Mixed Use Residential
Total Investment NAV Bank Debt
campaigns and flexible payment terms to stabilise sales and lease performances. Regarding the landed property segment, the volume of successful transactions in both
Year-on-year and month-on-month inflation (%)Hanoi and Ho Chi Minh City are expected to improve during the second half of 2016,
especially in developments with consistent construction progress and quality, according to Savills Vietnam. Infrastructure projects in Hanoi and Ho Chi Minh City, including urban railway systems and ring roads, are in various stages of construction and will improve accessibility to outlying areas. This ameliorates commuting times and improves convenience, making future supply even more sought after.
Macroeconomic updateVietnam's economy continued to grow in a stable and sustainable manner in August, with favourable conditions for upward movement over the remainder of the year. The Nikkei Purchasing Managers' Index rose from 51.9 to 52.2, the ninth straight month of steady manufacturing expansion, and continued to outperform regional peers. The Index of Industrial Production grew moderately at 6.9% y-o-y in August, with manufacturing production rising more strongly at 10.6% and the mining sector, which includes oil, declining 6.9%. Disbursed foreign direct investment increased 9% y-o-y in August, totalling USD9.8 billion within the first eight months of this year, with nearly three- quarters of that targeted toward the manufacturing sector. On the consumer side, retail
7.0
6.0
5.0
4.0
3.0
2.0
1.0
0.0
YoY CPI
8
6
4
2
-
2013 2014 2015 2016
YoY CPI MoM CPI
Quarterly GDP growth (%)MoM CPI
3
2
1
0
(1)
sales continued to be healthy, up 9.3% y-o-y in nominal terms, 7.3% in real terms.
In terms of trade, Vietnam continued to run a surplus of USD700 million in August, bringing the surplus to approximately USD2.5 billion for the first eight months of the year. Mobile phones, textiles and computer parts led exports. Inflation remained stable in August, rising just 0.1% month-over-month, and hitting its lowest level of the year.
Year-to-date inflation stood at 2.6%. The Vietnamese dong (VND) remained steady against the US dollar. Interestingly, since the start of the year, the Chinese yuan has depreciated 5% while the VND has barely moved. It was just a year ago that China devalued the
yuan by 5% at one time, causing the VND to also devalue; this year, both countries have transitioned to a managed float, allowing the markets to more easily absorb such moves.
Looking ahead, we believe that the macroeconomic trends will continue to move ahead steadily. While the government's target GDP growth of 6.7% for 2016 is unlikely to be achieved, the pieces are in place for growth of between 6.0-6.3%. The fourth quarter typically sees increased activity, particularly as public investments are approved and initiated. Issues that bear monitoring include a possible US Fed interest rate hike at year's end as well as possible effects from the La Niña on the already battered agricultural sector.
Mar Jun Sep Dec Mar Jun Sep Dec Mar Jun Sep Dec Mar Jun Sep Dec Mar Jun Sep Dec Mar Jun Sep Dec Mar Jun 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
Purchasing Managers' Index60
55
50
45
40
Jan-12 Jul-12 Jan-13 Jul-13 Jan-14 Jul-14 Jan-15 Jul-15 Jan-16 Jul-16
Registered and disbursed FDI (2016, USDbn)16
14
12
10
8
6
4
Macroeconomic indicators | ||||
2015 | Aug-16 | 2016 YTD | Year-on-year | |
GDP growth1 | 6.7% | |||
Inflation (%) | 0.54% | 0.1% | 2.6% | 2.6% |
FDI commitments (USDbn) | 22.8 | 1.4 | 14.4 | 7.7%3 |
FDI disbursements (USDbn) | 14.5 | 1.3 | 9.8 | 8.9%3 |
Imports (USDbn) | 165.6 | 15.0 | 109.7 | 6.1% |
Exports (USDbn) | 162.4 | 15.2 | 112.2 | 5.0% |
Trade surplus/(deficit) (USDbn) | (3.2) | 0.2 | 2.5 | |
Exchange rate (USD/VND)2 | 22,450 | 22,260 | 0.8% | |
Bank deposit rate (VND) | 5.0% | 6.0% | 100 bps | |
Sources: GSO, Vietnam Customs, SBV, VCB | 1. Annualized rate, updated quarterly 2. (-) Denotes a devaluation in the cur- rency, Vietcombank ask rate |3. Compared to the first 8 months of 2015 |
2
0
00
00
-
00)
00)
00)
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug
Monthly trade balance (USDm)Feb-15 Mar-15 Apr-15 May-15 Jun-15 Jul-15 Aug-15 Sep-15 Oct-15 Nov-15 Dec-15 Jan-16 Feb-16 Mar-16 Apr-16 May-16 Jun-16 Jul-16
Aug-16
Source: GSO, Bloomberg
Board of Directors | VinaCapital Investment Management Ltd | ||
VNL's Board of Directors is composed entirely of independent non-executive directors. | |||
Member | Role | Member | Role |
Michel Casselman | Non-executive Chairman | Don Lam | Chief Executive Officer |
Nicholas Brooke | Non-executive Director | Brook Taylor | Chief Operating Officer |
Nicholas Allen | Non-executive Director | David Blackhall | Managing Director, VNL |
Charles Isaac | Non-executive Director | Anthony House | Deputy Managing Director, Real Estate |
Tran Trong Kien | Non-executive Director | Oai Nguyen | Deputy Managing Director, Real Estate |
Fund background | |||
ISIN | KYG936361016 | ||
Bloomberg | VNL LN | ||
Reuters | VNL.L | ||
Fund summary | |||
Fund launch | 22-Mar-06, current term is up to a maximum of 1 year and commenced 21 November 2015 | ||
Term of fund | Originally seven years, but now subject to shareholder vote for continuation, with the next such vote to occur no later than 21 November 2016 | ||
Fund domicile | Cayman Islands | ||
Legal form | Exempted company limited by shares | ||
Investment manager | VinaCapital Investment Management Ltd | ||
Structure | Single class of ordinary shares trading on the AIM market of the London Stock Exchange plc | ||
Auditor | PricewaterhouseCoopers (Hong Kong) | ||
Nominated adviser | Grant Thornton UK LLP | ||
Custodian and Administrator | HSBC Trustee (Cayman) Limited, Standard Chartered Bank (Singapore & Vietnam) | ||
Registrar and Transfer Agency | Orangefield (Cayman) Limited | ||
Brokers | Numis Securities (Bloomberg: NUMI) | ||
Lawyers | Gowling WLG (UK), Maples and Calder (Cayman Islands) | ||
Base and incentive fee | The base (management) fee is USD390 thousand per calendar month. There is an accrued but unpaid performance fee related to disposals contracted prior to 21 November 2015, and a disposal fee of 2.8% of distributable proceeds arising from new disposals contracted after 21 November 2015 which is linked to distributions to shareholders. | ||
Investment policy | The Fund is now in a cash return period and will not make any investments, except where funds are required for existing projects. The Fund will seek to realise assets in the existing portfolio and continue with the development of selected projects to maximize value. | ||
Investment objective by geography | All existing investments are located in Vietnam. There will be no new investments during the current cash return period. |
2016 VinaCapital Group. All rights reservied.
Important Information
This document, and the material contained therein, is not intended as an offer or solicitation for the subscription, purchase or sale of securities in VinaCapital Vietnam Opportunity Fund Limited (the "Company"). Any investment in any of the Companies must be based solely on the Admission Document of that Company or other offering document issued from time to time by that Company, in accordance with applicable laws.
The material in this document is not intended to provide, and should not be relied on for accounting, legal or tax advice or investment recommendations. Potential investors are advised to independently review and/or obtain independent professional advice and draw their own conclusions regarding the economic benefit and risks of investment in either of the Companies and legal, regulatory, credit, tax and accounting aspects in relation to their particular circumstances.
The securities of the Companies have not been and will not be registered under any securities laws of the United States of America nor any of its territories or possessions or areas subject to its jurisdiction and, absent an exemption, may not be offered for sale or sold to nationals or residents thereof.
No undertaking, representation, warranty or other assurance, express or implied, is given by or on behalf of either of the Companies or VinaCapital Investment Management Ltd or any of their respective directors, officers, partners, employees, agents or advisers or any other person as to the accuracy or completeness of the information or opinions contained in this document and no responsibility or liability is accepted by any of them for any such information or opinions or for any errors, omissions, misstatements, negligence or otherwise.
No warranty is given, in whole or in part, regarding the performance of either of the Companies. There is no guarantee that investment objectives of any of the three Companies will be achieved. Potential investors should be aware that past performance may not necessarily be repeated in the future. The price of shares and the income from them may fluctuate upwards or downwards and cannot be guaranteed.
This document is intended for the use of the addressee and recipient only and should not be relied upon by any persons and may not be reproduced, redistributed, passed on or published, in whole or in part, for any purposes, without the prior written consent of VinaCapital Investment Management Ltd.
ir@vinacapital.com
+84 8 3821 9930
www.vinacapital.com
Broker
Numis Securities
+44 (0)20 7260 1000
funds@numis.com
Vinaland Ltd. published this content on 13 September 2016 and is solely responsible for the information contained herein.
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