For Immediate Release
BEA Releases January 2012 Issue of "Economic Analysis"Report Discusses the Global Economic Outlook for 2012
Hong Kong, 18th January, 2012 - The Bank of East Asia ("BEA") has today
released the January 2012 issue of its "Economic Analysis".
The report indicates that, two years into the European debt
crisis, the rot has continued to spread. Such conditions will
threaten markets in the short-run. In addition to the growing
impact of the credit squeeze in the coming months, many
European countries are implementing steep budget cuts.
European economies will be in recession for most of 2012.
In the US, the economy is recovering and the business sector
is borrowing once again. Yet, in view of the deleveraging of
American household debt and the high unemployment rate, US
firms are expanding abroad instead of domestically to tap
growing demand in emerging markets. Thus, only moderate
growth is expected in the US this year.
The European debt crisis and slow economic recovery in the US
are weighing on the Chinese economy. The focus of China's
policy in 2012 will be establishing a balance between
sustaining correction in the housing market and assisting
small and
medium-sized enterprises ("SMEs"). In addition to a moderate
reduction of 150 basis points in the deposit reserve
requirement ratio, which is expected within this year, the
government will resort to fiscal measures and administrative
means to assist SMEs. BEA forecasts China's GDP to grow by
8.2% and inflation to ease to 3% in 2012.
Given the weakness of overseas economies, Hong Kong's real
export growth will be reduced to 0% in 2012. Furthermore, the
Mainland factor will continue to support Hong Kong's economy.
Under the "Going Out" policy of the Chinese government, many
Chinese companies use Hong Kong as a platform for overseas
investment, fuelling the demand for commercial services in
the city. The strong purchasing power of Mainland tourists
also supports employment growth, which helps boost local wage
levels and sustain private consumption. Hong Kong is
therefore forecast to achieve GDP growth of 3.5% in 2012,
with inflation at 3%.
Published on a quarterly basis, BEA's "Economic Analysis"
provides investors with an in-depth look into current market
and economic issues. Copies of the report can be downloaded
via BEA's homepage: www.hkbea.com / Corporate Information /
Economic Research.
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For press enquiries, please contact:
Mr. Paul Tang
Chief Economist
Economic Research Department
Strategic Planning & Control Division
The Bank of East Asia
Tel.: (852) 3608 5036
Email: tangpso@hkbea.com
BEA - Operator of one of the largest banking networks in Hong Kong2
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