Thai Oil Public Company Limited
Q2/23 Analyst Presentation
17 Aug 2023
Time : 10:00 - 12:00 hrs.
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Disclaimer
The information contained in this presentation is intended solely for your personal reference. Please do not circulate this material. If you are not an intended recipient, you must not read, disclose, copy, retain, distribute or take any action in reliance upon it.
Some statements made in this material are forward-looking with relevant assumptions, which are subject to uncertainties, which may cause the actual result/performance to be materially deviated from any future result/performance implied by such forward-looking statements. Please note that the company and management/staff are not capable to control and guarantee if these forward-looking statements will be accurately materialized, they are subject to various risks and uncertainties.
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Presentation Agenda (Q2/23)
KEY HIGHLIGHTS
PERFORMANCE ANALYSIS
OUTLOOK
FINAL REMARK
Key Market Highlight
Softer GRM/GIM due to limited Russia's supply disruption
Key Highlights | Performance | Outlook | |
Key Market Highlight | Key Performance Highlights | Key Business Highlights | Strategy - 3Vs |
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Final Remark
Recovery in Global Oil Demand
recovered product demand led by jet/kero
Global Oil Demand Growth | ||||
120% | (avg.2019 = 100%) | Gasoil | ||
Pre-COVID level (2019) | ||||
100% | Gasoline | |||
80% | ||||
60% | Jet | |||
40% | ||||
20% | ||||
2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 |
Source : FGE (Apr'23)
Crude balance turn to deficit in Q3
Driven by extra Saudi supply cut
MBD | 2023 Demand 101.2 MBD (+1.8 MBD YoY) | MBD |
2023 Production 101.3 MBD (+1.4 MBD YoY) |
104 | 4.0 | |||||
102 | 3.0 | |||||
2.0 | ||||||
100 | ||||||
1.0 | ||||||
98 | 0.0 | |||||
96 | Saudi Cut | (1.0) | ||||
(2.0) | ||||||
94 | Extra Cut in Q3'23 | |||||
(3.0) | ||||||
92 | (4.0) | |||||
Q1/21 | Q3/21 | Q1/22 | Q3/22 | Q1/23 | Q3/23 |
Source : EIA (May'23)
Dubai Price ($/BBL) | 77.8 | |||||
Limited Russia's supply disruption | ||||||
$2.5/BBL (QoQ) | ||||||
Q1/19 | Q4/19 | Q3/20 | Q2/21 | Q1/22 | Q4/22 | Q3/23 |
Murban OSP ($/BBL) | 2.8 |
Limited Russia's supply disruption | |
$2.2/BBL (QoQ) |
Low Global Product Inventory | |||||||||||
with stock below 5-year average | |||||||||||
US/ARA/Singapore | US/ARA/Singapore | ||||||||||
Middle Distillates Inventory | Mbbl | Gasoline Inventory | |||||||||
Mbbl | |||||||||||
250 | 300 | ||||||||||
200 | 280 | ||||||||||
260 | |||||||||||
150 | 240 | ||||||||||
100 | 220 | ||||||||||
Jan | Mar | May | Jul | Sep | Nov | ||||||
Jan | Mar | May | Jul | Sep | Nov | ||||||
5yr-range | Avg. 18-22 | 2022 | 2023 |
Potential release of new China's export quota
to offset recovery in demand
MBD | China Product Export | ||||||||
2.00 | |||||||||
1.50 | |||||||||
1.00 | Avg 2022 | Avg 2023 | |||||||
0.50 | |||||||||
0.00 | Apr-20 | Jul-20 | Oct-20Jan-21 | Apr-21Jul-21 | Oct-21 | Jan-22Apr-22Jul-22 | Oct-22 | Apr-23Jul-23Oct-23 | |
Jan-20 | Jan-23 |
Q1/19 | Q4/19 | Q3/20 | Q2/21 | Q1/22 | Q4/22 | Q3/23 |
SG GRM ($/BBL) | ||||||
Softer middle distillate cracks | ||||||
4.0 | ||||||
$4.2/BBL (QoQ) | ||||||
Q1/19 | Q4/19 | Q3/20 | Q2/21 | Q1/22 | Q4/22 | Q3/23 |
Key Performance Highlight | 5 | ||||
Softer GIM from Weaker Refinery and Lube Business | |||||
Key Highlights | Performance | Outlook | Final Remark | ||
Key Market Highlight | Key Performance Highlights | Key Business Highlights | Strategy - 3Vs | ||
Aromatic | ||
& LAB | ||
0.9 | ||
Acc. GIM ($/BBL) | ||
Refinery | Q2/23 | |
4.2 | ||
0.8 | ||
2.5 vs Q1/23 = 8.3 $/BBL |
Lube
Unit: $/BBL
- Softer crude oil price on limited Russia's supply disruption and concerns over demand growth
- Softer gasoline spread from weak demand in China and higher China's export
- Softer middle distillate cracks from limited Russia's supply disruption
- Softer crude premium on limited Russia's supply disruption and concerns over demand growth
- Increasing PX margin from higher demand for PET bottle production and lower supply from schedule maintenance in China and South Korea
- Softer BZ margin from weak downstream demand such as SM
- Improving LAB spread on higher Asian demand during summer
- Softening Base Oil and Bitumen margin from slower-than-expected demand growth and limited budget for infrastructure improvement
Crude Price
Murban OSP
5.0 | 2.8 | 5.7 | 3.9 | |||||||
Dubai Price | 101.8 | |||||||||
80.3 | 77.8 | 79.0 | ||||||||
Q1/23 | Q2/23 | 1H/22 | 1H/23 |
Market GRM
10.0 | 4.5 | 16.1 | 7.2 |
Q1/23 | Q2/23 | 1H/22 | 1H/23 | ||||||
Stock G/(L)
(3.5) | (2.0) | 11.8 | (2.7) |
Q1/23 | Q2/23 | 1H/22 | 1H/23 | |
GIM
Mkt | 11.8 | 6.1 | 17.0 | 9.0 | |||||||||||||||
Acc | 8.3 | 4.2 | 28.7 | 6.3 | |||||||||||||||
0.7 | |||||||||||||||||||
0.4 | |||||||||||||||||||
1.1 | 0.8 | 27.6 | 1.0 | ||||||||||||||||
0.9 | 0.9 | ||||||||||||||||||
6.4 | 0.9 | 4.5 | |||||||||||||||||
2.5 | |||||||||||||||||||
Q1/23 | Q2/23 | 1H/22 | 1H/23 | ||||||||||||||||
Refinery | Aromatic & LAB | Lube | |||||||||||||||||
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Disclaimer
Thai Oil pcl published this content on 17 August 2023 and is solely responsible for the information contained therein. Distributed by Public, unedited and unaltered, on 21 August 2023 07:30:05 UTC.