OnTheMarket : Property Sentiment Index – October 2023

Property Sentiment Index

October 2023	Chief Executive Officer
	Jason Tebb
(reporting on September 2023 data)

Housing market holding up as interest rate hold adds welcome stability

74% of active buyers in		61% of sellers in the UK
the UK were confident		were confident that they
that they would purchase		would sell their property
a property within the next		within the next 3 months
3 months

The housing market has been nothing if not consistent in recent months with our data showing that September saw no real shift in sentiment among buyers and sellers, as those motivated to move got on with it. The Bank of England's decision to pause consecutive interest rate hikes, keeping base rate at 5.25 per cent, was well received and helped bring some welcome stability. Consumers are hoping that we've seen base rate peak, with the worst of the pain behind us. While rock- bottom deals are long gone and we must get used to paying more for our mortgages, it's only when there is some stability and borrowers become less concerned about further rate hikes that they will get off their hands and make big decisions such as whether to move.

Our data shows that buyer and seller sentiment proved extremely resilient in September. Nearly three-quarters of buyers (74%) were confident that they'd purchase a property within the next three months compared to 75% in August. Seller confidence was less strong, perhaps reflecting the relative power of buyers compared with sellers but even so, 61% of UK sellers were confident that they'd sell within the next three months in September, unchanged from August. This resilience is further underlined when you consider that just over a third of properties (37%) were Sold Subject to Contract within 30 days of first being listed in September, only marginally down from 38% in August. The figure may be lower than the 53%

in September 2022 when the market was more buoyant, but given prevailing economic headwinds, the high cost of living and elevated mortgage rates, this consistency and stability is noteworthy. Clearly, those properties which are priced sensibly are attracting buyers within a sensible timeframe.

37% of properties were		Rate hold boosts
Sold Subject to Contract (SSTC)		confidence in ability
within 30 days of first being		to get a mortgage as
advertised for sale, compared		lenders trim rates
with 53% in September 2022

Further competition is edging into the mortgage market, which bodes well. Lenders have money to lend and are keen to do so, with many reducing fixed-rate mortgages and easing criteria, offering better terms to self-employed borrowers and improved loan-to-income multiples to help with affordability. Sub-5 per cent fixes are available and more are expected in the fourth quarter.

While the markets expect another rate hold at the Bank's November meeting, all eyes will be on inflation figures before then to see whether they continue moving in the right direction. Yet despite continued economic uncertainty, serious property seekers are proceeding regardless. The current market is not all about plummeting prices and transactions - far from it. Motivated buyers are still seeking properties, and so serious sellers who want to attract them must price sensitively, taking advice from an experienced local agent.

State of the Nation

The housing market is not a single entity but comprises many different regional markets, and we're delighted to reflect this by including views from agents across the country in this month's report (from page 8).

While the regions are different, sentiment is often similar with Melfyn Williams at Williams & Goodwin in Wales observing that movers are 'getting on with it but with caution… with some becoming more realistic with pricing', while Ashley Rolfe at Rolfe East in Greater London suggesting 'this isn't a time for the speculative 'try the market' approach. If you want to move and are being realistic with your expectations then you will transact as usual'.

For all media enquiries and interviews please contact the OnTheMarket press office: [e-mail]	1
www.onthemarket.com

Demonstrating that there can also be differences within regions, John Nicholson at Dowen Auctions, Sales & Lettings in the North East remarks that 'while mortgage uncertainty is undoubtedly having an impact… the middle and top-end price ranges of the market remain active'. Elsewhere, uncertainty around mortgages and interest rates is putting the brakes on activity, with Stuart Matthews at Miller Metcalfe in the North West noting that 'higher mortgage rates coupled with stricter lending criteria have deterred many prospective buyers', although he reassures sellers that 'there are still many active, good quality buyers out there'.

Back to pricing again, and David Votta at Votta Sales and Lettings in the South East acknowledges that September saw the lowest number of transactions since 2012, with 'numerous properties languishing on the market primarily due to a lingering post- Covid pricing mindset among both sellers and agents'. Finally, on a more upbeat note, Mike Cleary at Sheldon Bosley Knight in the West Midlands remembers that the market reacted badly last year to the Truss mini-budget, so it will be 'interesting to see how October performs with a more positive outlook slowly emerging'. Watch this space.

For all media enquiries and interviews please contact the OnTheMarket press office: [e-mail]	2
www.onthemarket.com

Seller Sentiment - how confident were sellers in September 2023?

September 2023 Headlines

From our sample of sellers surveyed, UK average rates of confidence over the last month were as follows:

• 61% of sellers were confident that they would sell their property within the next 3 months, unchanged when compared to August 2023 (61%)
• 29% of sellers were confident that they would sell their properties within the next 6 months, a slight increase when compared to August 2023 (27%)
• 4% of sellers were confident that they would sell their properties within the next 9 months, a slight decrease when compared to August 2023 (5%)
• 6% of sellers were confident that they would sell their home within the next 12 months, a slight decrease when compared to August 2023 (7%)

The OnTheMarket Property Sentiment Survey asks sellers across the UK how confident they feel about selling their home in order to provide a 'temperature check' of market sentiment both on a national and regional basis.

Sellers are asked to indicate how confident they are that they will sell their home:

• Within the next 3 months
• Within the next 6 months
• Within the next 9 months
• Within the next 12 months

>5% increase on previous month <5% increase and <5% decrease on previous month >5% decrease on previous month

(based on Seller confidence within next 3 months)

Scotland

	Sept 23	Aug 23
Within next 3 months	70%	67%
Within next 6 months	22%	21%
Within next 9 months	3%	4%
Within next 12 months	5%	8%

North
West	Sept 23	Aug 23
	Within next 3 months	64%	65%
	Within next 6 months	26%	26%
	Within next 9 months	4%	4%
	Within next 12 months	6%	5%
West
Midlands	Sept 23	Aug 23
	Within next 3 months	63%	65%
	Within next 6 months	28%	25%
	Within next 9 months	3%	4%
	Within next 12 months	6%	6%
Wales	Sept 23	Aug 23
	Within next 3 months	64%	65%
	Within next 6 months	25%	22%
	Within next 9 months	5%	4%
	Within next 12 months	6%	9%
South
West	Sept 23	Aug 23
	Within next 3 months	48%	51%
	Within next 6 months	41%	38%
	Within next 9 months	4%	5%
	Within next 12 months	7%	6%
South
East	Sept 23	Aug 23
	Within next 3 months	57%	55%
	Within next 6 months	31%	31%
	Within next 9 months	5%	5%
	Within next 12 months	7%	9%

		North
		East	Sept 23	Aug 23
		Within next 3 months	68%	67%
		Within next 6 months	22%	22%
		Within next 9 months	5%	5%
		Within next 12 months	5%	6%
		Yorkshire
		& The Humber	Sept 23	Aug 23
		Within next 3 months	63%	64%
		Within next 6 months	28%	26%
		Within next 9 months	4%	4%
		Within next 12 months	5%	6%
		East
		Midlands	Sept 23	Aug 23
		Within next 3 months	63%	65%
		Within next 6 months	26%	23%
		Within next 9 months	6%	4%
		Within next 12 months	5%	8%
		East Of
		England	Sept 23	Aug 23
		Within next 3 months	55%	57%
		Within next 6 months	32%	33%
		Within next 9 months	6%	5%
		Within next 12 months	7%	5%

		Greater
		London	Sept 23	Aug 23
		Within next 3 months	65%	62%
		Within next 6 months	27%	25%
		Within next 9 months	4%	7%
		Within next 12 months	4%	6%

For all media enquiries and interviews please contact the OnTheMarket press office: [e-mail]	3
www.onthemarket.com

Buyer Sentiment - how confident were buyers in September 2023?

September 2023 Headlines

From our sample of buyers surveyed, UK average rates of confidence over the last month were as follows:

• 74% of buyers were confident that they would purchase a property within the next 3 months, a slight decrease when compared to August 2023 (75%)
• 17% of buyers were confident that they would purchase a property within the next 6 months, a slight increase when compared to August 2023 (16%)
• 3% of buyers were confident that they would purchase a property within the next 9 months, unchanged when compared to August 2023 (3%)
• 6% of buyers were confident that they would purchase a property within the next 12 months, unchanged when compared to August 2023 (6%)

The OnTheMarket Property Sentiment Survey asks buyers across the UK how confident they feel about purchasing their next property in order to provide a 'temperature check' of market sentiment both on a national and regional basis.

Buyers are asked to indicate how confident they are that they will purchase their next property:

• Within the next 3 months
• Within the next 6 months
• Within the next 9 months
• Within the next 12 months

>5% increase on previous month <5% increase and <5% decrease on previous month >5% decrease on previous month

(based on Buyer confidence within next 3 months)

Scotland

	Sept 23	Aug 23
Within next 3 months	77%	78%
Within next 6 months	14%	13%
Within next 9 months	3%	2%
Within next 12 months	6%	7%

North
West	Sept 23	Aug 23
	Within next 3 months	76%	78%
	Within next 6 months	16%	14%
	Within next 9 months	2%	3%
	Within next 12 months	6%	5%
West
Midlands	Sept 23	Aug 23
	Within next 3 months	76%	76%
	Within next 6 months	16%	16%
	Within next 9 months	3%	3%
	Within next 12 months	5%	5%
Wales	Sept 23	Aug 23
	Within next 3 months	68%	72%
	Within next 6 months	22%	18%
	Within next 9 months	4%	3%
	Within next 12 months	6%	7%
South
West	Sept 23	Aug 23
	Within next 3 months	65%	68%
	Within next 6 months	24%	22%
	Within next 9 months	3%	3%
	Within next 12 months	8%	7%
South
East	Sept 23	Aug 23
	Within next 3 months	69%	69%
	Within next 6 months	20%	21%
	Within next 9 months	4%	3%
	Within next 12 months	7%	7%

		North
		East	Sept 23	Aug 23
		Within next 3 months	78%	76%
		Within next 6 months	14%	16%
		Within next 9 months	3%	3%
		Within next 12 months	5%	5%
		Yorkshire
		& The Humber	Sept 23	Aug 23
		Within next 3 months	75%	76%
		Within next 6 months	16%	16%
		Within next 9 months	3%	2%
		Within next 12 months	6%	6%
		East
		Midlands	Sept 23	Aug 23
		Within next 3 months	74%	76%
		Within next 6 months	17%	15%
		Within next 9 months	2%	3%
		Within next 12 months	7%	6%
		East Of
		England	Sept 23	Aug 23
		Within next 3 months	72%	71%
		Within next 6 months	19%	19%
		Within next 9 months	3%	3%
		Within next 12 months	6%	7%

		Greater
		London	Sept 23	Aug 23
		Within next 3 months	78%	80%
		Within next 6 months	14%	13%
		Within next 9 months	3%	2%
		Within next 12 months	5%	5%

For all media enquiries and interviews please contact the OnTheMarket press office: [e-mail]	4
www.onthemarket.com

Mover attitudes towards mortgage availability in September 2023

September 2023 headlines:

• As a UK average, in September 2023 only 6% of movers were concerned (either very worried or slightly concerned) about securing a mortgage to fund the purchase of their next property, unchanged when compared to August 2023 (6%)
• Wales had the highest number of respondents who already had their mortgage Agreement In Principle in place prior to starting their search for a property (22%). The South West had the lowest number of respondents who aleady had a mortgage Agreement In Principle in place before starting their property search (15%)
• As a UK average, 30% of movers hadn't considered applying for a mortgage before starting their property search, with buyers in Greater London the least likely to have considered applying for a mortgage before starting their search for a property (35%)
• As a UK average, 33% of buyers surveyed said that they didn't need a mortgage in order to purchase a property. Greater London had the lowest number of respondents who indicated that they wouldn't require a mortgage to purchase a property (23%). The South West had the highest number of respondents who indicated that they didn't need a mortgage to buy their next home (43%)

The OnTheMarket Property Sentiment Index provides insights in terms of how confident movers across the UK feel about securing a mortgage in order to fund the purchase of their next property. Since increased affordability assessments were introduced by lenders in 2014 as part of the Mortgage Market Review, the ability to both successfully secure a mortgage and borrow enough to fund a property purchase are key factors which can have a significant impact on home mover sentiment.

Respondents to the OnTheMarket survey are asked to indicate how they feel about raising the necessary funds to purchase their next property by choosing from the following options:

• I'm very worried
• I'm slightly concerned
• I'm sure it will be fine
• I have a mortgage Agreement in Principle already
• I don't need a mortgage to buy a property
• I've not thought about it

I'm very worried

I'm slightly concerned

I'm sure it will

be fine

I've already got a mortgage AIP

I don't need a

mortgage

I've not thought

about it yet

	Sept 23	Aug 23	Sept 23	Aug 23	Sept 23	Aug 23	Sept 23	Aug 23	Sept 23	Aug 23	Sept 23	Aug 23
Grand Total	2%	2%	4%	4%	12%	13%	19%	20%	33%	33%	30%	28%
London	3%	3%	6%	5%	13%	15%	20%	22%	23%	22%	35%	33%
South East	2%	2%	5%	5%	10%	10%	20%	19%	33%	35%	30%	29%
South West	2%	2%	4%	3%	10%	11%	15%	15%	43%	44%	26%	25%
East of England	3%	2%	5%	5%	12%	11%	17%	17%	32%	35%	31%	30%
West Midlands	2%	2%	4%	3%	14%	12%	20%	21%	30%	31%	30%	31%
East Midlands	3%	3%	5%	6%	13%	13%	18%	20%	30%	32%	31%	26%
Yorkshire and	2%	2%	4%	4%	16%	17%	17%	20%	30%	31%	31%	26%
The Humber
North East	2%	1%	3%	3%	16%	15%	18%	18%	30%	36%	31%	27%
North West	3%	2%	5%	4%	14%	14%	20%	23%	28%	30%	30%	27%
Wales	2%	1%	3%	3%	10%	8%	22%	23%	39%	41%	24%	24%
Scotland	2%	1%	3%	3%	10%	11%	17%	17%	41%	43%	27%	25%

For all media enquiries and interviews please contact the OnTheMarket press office: [e-mail]	5
www.onthemarket.com