Fitch Ratings has affirmed 13 classes of Morgan Stanley Capital I Trust (MSCI) Commercial Mortgage Pass-Through Certificates, series 2016-UBS9.

In addition, the Rating Outlooks on classes D, E, X-D and X-E were revised to Negative from Stable. The Rating Outlook remains Negative on class F.

RATING ACTIONS

Entity / Debt

Rating

Prior

MSCI 2016-UBS9

A-3 61766CAD1

LT

AAAsf

Affirmed

AAAsf

A-4 61766CAE9

LT

AAAsf

Affirmed

AAAsf

A-S 61766CAG4

LT

AAAsf

Affirmed

AAAsf

A-SB 61766CAF6

LT

AAAsf

Affirmed

AAAsf

B 61766CAK5

LT

AA-sf

Affirmed

AA-sf

C 61766CAL3

LT

A-sf

Affirmed

A-sf

D 61766CAV1

LT

BBB-sf

Affirmed

BBB-sf

E 61766CAX7

LT

BB-sf

Affirmed

BB-sf

F 61766CAZ2

LT

B-sf

Affirmed

B-sf

Page

of 2

VIEW ADDITIONAL RATING DETAILS

KEY RATING DRIVERS

Criteria Update: The rating actions reflect the impact of Fitch's updated U.S. and Canadian Multiborrower

CMBS Rating Criteria, published on May 22, 2023, and incorporate any changes in loan performance

and/or credit enhancement (CE) since Fitch's prior rating action.

Stable Loss Expectations: Loss expectations for the pool remain stable since Fitch's prior rating action. Seven loans are considered Fitch Loans of Concern (FLOCs; 42.4% of the pool), and no loans are currently in special servicing. Fitch's current ratings reflect a 'Bsf' rating case loss of 5.10%.

The Negative Outlooks on the classes D, E, X-D, X-E and F reflect performance and refinance concerns on two office loans in the top 15, 2100 Ross and Princeton Pike Corporate Center, and three retail outlet loans, Grove City Premium Outlets, Gulfport Premium Outlets and Ellenton Premium Outlets.

Fitch Loans of Concern: The 2100 Ross loan (9.6%) is secured by a 33-story, 843,728-sf office building located in the Arts District of downtown Dallas, TX. The property's largest tenants include Lockton Companies (11.7% of NRA; leased through March 2026), Netherland, Sewell & Associates (7.3%; September 2025), Prudential Mortgage Capital (6.5%, April 2027) and Merrill Lynch, Pierce, Fenner and Smith (5.6%, July 2027).

Occupancy for the property was 63.5% as of the March 2023 rent roll, compared with 63% at YE 2022, 81% at YE 2020 and 2021 and 82% at YE 2019. The largest tenant, CBRE (15% of NRA, 20% base rent), vacated at lease expiration in March 2022, relocating to an office tower in the uptown area of Dallas. The vacant CBRE space has yet to be backfilled. The servicer-reported NOI DSCR as of March 2023 was 1.29x, down from 1.35x at YE 2022, 1.52x at YE 2021, 1.56x at YE 2020 and 1.39x at YE 2019. According to CoStar as of 2Q2023, the Dallas CBD office submarket had a vacancy rate of 26.3% with an elevated availability rate of 30.2% and a market rent of $28.76 psf.

Fitch's 'Bsf' rating case loss of 4.2% prior to concentration adjustments is based on a 9.50% cap rate and 25% stress to YE 2021 NOI to account for loss of the largest tenant and weak submarket fundamentals.

Princeton Pike Corporate Center (8.2%) is secured by an 818,140-sf suburban office property consisting of eight buildings located in Lawrence Township, NJ. The loan re-emerged from special servicing in September 2021 with a loan modification allowing for the conversion of debt service to interest-only (IO) payments and the implementation of an ongoing cash trap for the remainder of the loan term.

The property was 73.6% occupied as of the March 2023 rent roll, in line with YE 2022, but down from 77.2% at YE 2021 and 82% at YE 2020. Per updates from the servicer, the largest tenant, Stark and Stark (11% of the NRA), did not renew upon its December 2022 lease expiration, and is in holdover for a few months. Occupancy is estimated to decline to approximately 63%.

The property's other largest tenants include Factor Systems (10.9%; December 2033) and Fox Rothschild, LLP (7%; April 2024). Near-term lease rollover includes 5% of NRA in 2023 and 17% in 2024. The servicer-reported NOI DSCR as of YE 2022 was 1.78x, compared with 1.52x at YE 2021, 2.17x at YE 2020 and 1.75x at YE 2019. According to CoStar as of 2Q2023, the Trenton office submarket had a vacancy rate of 8.8%, availability rate of 13.4% and market rent of $29.06 psf.

Fitch's 'Bsf' rating case loss of 11% prior to concentration adjustments is based on a 10.0% cap rate and 20% stress to the YE 2022 NOI to reflect lease rollover concerns.

The pool has exposure to three Simon-owned outlet malls, combined 12.6% of the pool, including Ellenton Premium Outlets, 7.1%; Grove City Premium Outlets, 3.7%; and Gulfport Premium Outlets, 1.7%).

The largest contributor to pool loss expectations is the Grove City Premium Outlets loan (3.7%), which is secured by a 531,200-sf outlet center located in Grove City, PA, approximately 50 miles north of Pittsburgh.

The property's largest tenants include Old Navy (3.8% of NRA; leased through January 2026) and Nike Factory Store (3.1%; June 2023). Occupancy of the outlet center was 75% as of YE 2022, compared with 71% at YE 2021, 77% at YE 2020, 82% at YE 2019 and 98% at issuance. YE 2022 NOI declined by 13% from YE 2021. Near-term lease rollover includes approximately 11% of NRA in 2023 and an additional 10% in 2024. The servicer-reported NOI DSCR as of YE 2022 was 2.14x, from 2.40x at YE 2021 and 2.75x at issuance.

The TTM February 2023 sales report showed total sales were $338 psf compared to $333 psf at issuance.

Fitch's 'Bsf' rating case loss of 34% prior to concentration adjustments reflects a 15% cap rate and a 10% stress to YE 2021 NOI, and factors in an increased probability of default due to heightened maturity default risk given the sustained performance declines.

Gulfport Premium Outlets (1.7%) is secured by a 300,328-sf open-air premium outlet mall located in Gulfport, MS. The largest tenants include H&M (6.5% of the NRA; January 2029 lease expiration), Lee Wrangler (5.8%; expired January 2023), Nike Factory Store (4.5%; expired January 2022) and Polo Ralph Lauren Factory Store (3.5%; January 2026). Fitch requested leasing updates on Nike and Lee Wrangler Clearance but did not receive a response; these two tenants are in occupancy per the property's website.

Occupancy has fallen to 77% as of YE 2022, compared to 76% at YE 2021, 81% at YE 2020, 87% at YE 2019 and 92% at issuance. Per the YE 2022 rent roll, 12.3% of the NRA had lease expirations in 2022 and 17.2% have lease expirations in 2023. The YE 2022 NOI DSCR was 2.58x, down from 2.87x at YE 2021, 2.78x at YE 2020, 2.91x at YE 2019 and 3.01x at issuance.

No updated sales report was provided to Fitch. The most recent sales were reported at $433 psf as of YE 2021, compared to pre-pandemic levels of $318 psf in 2019.

Fitch's 'Bsf' rating case loss of 33% prior to concentration add-ons reflects a 15% cap rate and 15% stress to the YE 2022 NOI and factors in an increased probability of default due to heightened maturity default risk given the overall performance declines and upcoming rollover.

Ellenton Premium Outlets (7.1%) is secured by a 476,481-sf outlet center in Ellenton, FL. The property's largest tenants include VF Factory Outlet (4.9% of NRA leased through January 2026), Saks Fifth Avenue Off 5th (4.1%; October 2026) and Nike Factory Store (3.2%; January 2025). As of December 2022, occupancy was 83%, compared to 82% at YE 2021, 88% at YE 2020 and 89% at YE 2019. As of the December 2022 rent roll, near-term lease rollover includes 11.4% of NRA in 2023 and 14.7% in 2024. The most recently reported sales were $442 psf as of YE 2021, an improvement from $426 psf at YE 2019 but below sales of $502 psf at issuance. Fitch requested but did not receive a more recent tenant sales report.

Fitch's 'Bsf' rating case loss of 4.7% prior to concentration adjustments reflects a 10% cap rate and 15% total haircut to the YE 2021 NOI to account for near-term lease rollover concerns and declining occupancy.

Increased CE: As of the June 2023 distribution date, the pool's aggregate principal balance has been paid down by 18.6% to $542.8 million from $666.6 million at issuance. Seven loans (19.9% of the pool) are fully defeased. Two loans (11.5% of original pool balance) have paid off since issuance. Loan maturities are concentrated in 2025 and 2026 when 45.7% and 39.9% of the pool mature, respectively. There have been no realized losses to the trust since issuance.

RATING SENSITIVITIES

Factors that Could, Individually or Collectively, Lead to Negative Rating Action/Downgrade

Downgrades would occur with an increase in pool level losses from underperforming or specially

serviced loans. Downgrades of the 'AA-sf' and 'AAAsf' categories are not likely due to increasing CE and expected continued paydowns,

but may occur

should interest shortfalls affect these classes. A downgrade of the 'A-sf' rated class could

occur if expected losses increase significantly and/or all of the FLOCs suffer losses. Downgrades to classes D, E, X-D, X-E and F are possible should loss expectations increase from continued performance decline of the FLOCs, additional loans default or transfer to special servicing, higher realized losses than expected on the specially serviced assets and/or with outsized losses on the larger office FLOCs and retail outlet loans.

Factors that Could, Individually or Collectively, Lead to Positive Rating Action/Upgrade

Upgrades would occur with stable to improved asset performance, particularly on the FLOCs, coupled with paydown and/or defeasance. Upgrades of the 'A-sf' and 'AA-sf' categories would only occur with significant improvement in CE and/or performance stabilization of FLOCs, and be limited by adverse selection, increased concentrations and further underperformance of the office properties and retail outlet. Upgrades to classes D, E, X-D, X-E and F are unlikely absent significant performance improvement and substantially higher recoveries than expected on the FLOCs, and there is sufficient CE to the classes.

Best/Worst Case Rating Scenario

International scale credit ratings of Structured Finance transactions have a best-case rating upgrade scenario (defined as the 99th percentile of rating transitions, measured in a positive direction) of seven notches over a three-year rating horizon; and a worst-case rating downgrade scenario (defined as the 99th percentile of rating transitions, measured in a negative direction) of seven notches over three years. The complete span of best- and worst-case scenario credit ratings for all rating categories ranges from 'AAAsf' to 'Dsf'. Best- and worst-case scenario credit ratings are based on historical performance. For more information about the methodology used to determine sector-specific best- and worst-case scenario credit ratings, visit https://www.fitchratings.com/site/re/10111579.

USE OF THIRD PARTY DUE DILIGENCE PURSUANT TO SEC RULE 17G -10

Form ABS Due Diligence-15E was not provided to, or reviewed by, Fitch in relation to this rating action.

REFERENCES FOR SUBSTANTIALLY MATERIAL SOURCE CITED AS KEY DRIVER OF RATING

The principal sources of information used in the analysis are described in the Applicable Criteria.

ESG Considerations

Unless otherwise disclosed in this section, the highest level of ESG credit relevance is a score of '3'. This means ESG issues are credit-neutral or have only a minimal credit impact on the entity, either due to their nature or the way in which they are being managed by the entity. For more information on Fitch's ESG Relevance Scores, visit www.fitchratings.com/esg

Additional information is available on www.fitchratings.com

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