DEFAMA Deutsche Fachmarkt AG

(General Standard, Real Estate, DEF GR)

RESEARCH

Buy

Value Indicators:

EUR

Warburg ESG Risk Score:

2.3

Description:

ESG Score (MSCI based):

3.0

NAV (WRe) 23e:

24.25

Commercial real estate company

Balance Sheet Score:

3.8

focused on retail parks in Northern

EUR 24.60

FFO-Yield 23e:

24.80

(EUR 24.00)

Market Liquidity Score:

0.0

and Eastern Germany

Market Snapshot:

EUR m

Shareholders:

Key Figures (WRe):

2020e

Price

EUR 21.60

Market cap:

95.47

Freefloat

65.0 %

LTV:

60.2 %

No. of shares (m):

4.42

MSC Invest GmbH

29.0 %

Equity Ratio:

18.4 %

Upside

13.9 %

Freefloat MC:

62.06

Geminus GmbH

4.0 %

Ø Trad. Vol. (30d):

26.57 th

Supervisory board

2.0 %

Growth well on track after a good start to 2021 and a new acquisition

Stated Figures Q1/2021:

Comment on Figures:

Sound growth rates as shown in DEFAMA's recently published Q1

in EUR m

Q1/21

Q1/21e

Q1/20

+/- in %

support our positive view of the growth prospects in 2021 and beyond.

Revenues

4,05

4,32

3,13

30%

Impressive EBITDA and EBT growth rates of 29% and 21% respectively

EBITDA

2,56

2,47

1,98

29%

reflect strong portfolio growth in 2020 and already include a minor

EBIT

1,57

1,48

1,27

24%

burden from the pandemic (WRe: EUR 100k). The collection ratio stood

EBT

0,95

0,94

0,78

21%

at a solid 92%, showing the resilience of DEFAMA's business model.

Net profit

0,70

0,71

0,59

18%

Financial ratios remain solid with an LTV of 59% and eligible liquidity

EPS (€)

0,16

0,16

0,13

19%

(incl. credit lines) of EUR ~8m. NAV improved 16% in the last 12 months

FFO

1,69

1,67

1,31

29%

to EUR 17.09.

FFO-margin

42%

39%

42%

Management confirmed its guidance for 2021 with an FFO of EUR 7.3m

FFOPS (€)

0,38

0,38

0,30

29%

and a net profit of EUR 3.1m excl. the successful and attractive disposal

LTV (%)

60,2%

60,5%

60,5%

of the retail park in Bleicherode for a multiple of 14.7. We estimate an

NAV/share (€)

17,09

17,02

14,78

16%

adjusted net profit of EUR 3.05m.

  • In 2021 so far, DEFAMA has acquired two properties with an investment volume of EUR 12m. The purchase price of the recent acquisition in Barsinghausen (near Hannover) was EUR 3.6m for an annual net rent contribution of ~EUR 340k. The paid multiple of 10.6 is in line with DEFAMA's target multiples of around ~10. Core tenants are Netto and Dänisches Bettenlager and several smaller tenants retailing goods and services for daily needs. DEFAMA's annualised rent improved to EUR 15.3m and annualised FFO stands at EUR 7.5m (~FFOPS EUR 1.70). Therefore, DEFAMA is well on track to achieve its FY target for annualised FFO of EUR 8m at the end of 2021. The acquisition volume should again be at the upper end of DEFAMA's annual target range (EUR 15-20m) despite a selective investment approach.
  • We increase our price target to EUR 24.60 which is now based on 2023 estimates. FFO yield on annualised FFO of nearly 8% remains attractive.

Changes in Estimates:

Comment on Changes:

+ / -

2022e

+ / - Decrease in top-line estimates due to expectation of lower ancillary costs

FY End: 31.12.

2021e

in EUR m

(old)

(old)

paid by tenants as the ratio of rental income to total revenues should

increase slightly.

FFO I

7.39

-2.1 %

8.56

-2.0 %

The modest reduction in our FFO estimate is driven by the disposal of

FFOPS I

1.67

-2.1 %

1.94

-2.0 %

Net income

5.51

-6.4 %

3.67

-3.0 %

Bleicherode (annual FFO-impact of EUR ~160k).

Net income adjustment is affected by higher estimated taxes.

EPS

1.25

-6.4 %

0.83

-3.0 %

FY End: 31.12.

CAGR

in EUR m

(20-23e)

2017

2018

2019

2020

2021e

2022e

2023e

Rental income

5.10

7.61

9.53

12.19

14.93

16.89

18.95

Change yoy

67.9 %

49.2 %

25.1 %

27.9 %

22.5 %

13.2 %

12.2 %

EBIT

2.67

3.59

4.50

5.62

9.21

7.60

8.53

FFO I

2.58

3.65

4.62

5.87

7.23

8.38

9.45

FFO I-margin

50.6 %

47.9 %

48.4 %

48.2 %

48.5 %

49.6 %

49.9 %

EBT

1.77

2.25

2.78

3.49

6.67

4.79

5.42

Net income

1.36

1.68

2.06

2.51

5.15

3.56

4.03

EPS

0.38

0.46

0.51

0.57

1.17

0.80

0.91

FFOPS I

0.73

1.01

1.14

1.33

1.64

1.90

2.14

DPS

0.34

0.40

0.45

0.48

0.55

0.60

0.65

Dividend Yield

3.8 %

3.4 %

2.9 %

2.7 %

2.5 %

2.8 %

3.0 %

Book Value / Share

3.18

4.10

5.50

5.61

6.23

6.43

6.69

Rel. Performance vs General

1 month:

8.1 %

P / E

23.2 x

25.0 x

30.1 x

30.9 x

18.5 x

26.8 x

23.7 x

6 months:

-14.9 %

Price / Book

2.8 x

2.6 x

2.5 x

3.1 x

3.5 x

3.4 x

3.2 x

P / NAVPS

1.1 x

1.2 x

1.3 x

1.2 x

1.3 x

1.2 x

1.1 x

Year to date:

-8.8 %

FFO I-Yield

8.2 %

8.7 %

7.5 %

7.6 %

7.6 %

8.8 %

9.9 %

Trailing 12 months:

-27.7 %

ROE

12.4 %

12.3 %

10.2 %

10.2 %

19.7 %

12.7 %

13.9 %

LTV

61.1 %

62.0 %

58.2 %

60.2 %

58.1 %

59.1 %

59.5 %

Company events:

Guidance:

2021e: FFO of EUR ~7.1m, Net profit (HGB) of EUR 3.1m

Analyst

Andreas Pläsier

COM M ENT

Published 02.06.2021 08:15

1

aplaesier@warburg-research.com

+49 40 309537-246

DEFAMA Deutsche Fachmarkt AG

RESEARCH

EPRA-NAV per share development

FFO per share development

in EUR

in EUR

Source: Warburg Research

Source: Warburg Research

Company Background

  • Founded in 2014 and headquartered in Berlin, DEFAMA focuses on the acquisition, ownership and management of retail parks in German small and medium-sized cities, predominantly in Northern and Eastern Germany.
  • The investment strategy is to "buy and hold" assets with high occupancy and minor capex needs for a purchase price of ~10x annual rent.
  • Investment volumes are EUR 1 - 5 million per asset. Anchor tenants are nationwide retailers.

Competitive Quality

  • Real estate competence: founder, major shareholder and CEO Matthias Schrade, previously oversaw as a board member responsible for acquisitions for a non-listed real estate company based in Munich.
  • Unique focus: the company competes for assets that are too large for individual investors and too small for institutional investors and can "buy low".
  • Strong access to local public banks networks, for whom real estate financings for DEFAMA projects are large and important deals. They in turn know smaller tenants well.
  • Focus on leading centers in smaller cities ("big fish in a small pond").

Geographical breakdown of rental

Rental income by sector

income

% of rental income

% of total rental income

Source: Warburg Research

Source: Warburg Research

COM M ENT

Published 02.06.2021

2

DEFAMA Deutsche Fachmarkt AG

RESEARCH

Valuation

2017

2018

2019

2020

2021e

2022e

2023e

P / E

23.2 x

25.0 x

30.1 x

30.9 x

18.5 x

26.8 x

23.7 x

P / NAVPS

1.1 x

1.2 x

1.3 x

1.2 x

1.3 x

1.2 x

1.1 x

Price / Book

2.8 x

2.6 x

2.5 x

3.1 x

3.5 x

3.4 x

3.2 x

P / FFOPS I

12.2 x

11.5 x

13.4 x

13.2 x

13.2 x

11.4 x

10.1 x

FFO I-Yield

8.2 %

8.7 %

7.5 %

7.6 %

7.6 %

8.8 %

9.9 %

ROE

12.4 %

12.3 %

10.2 %

10.2 %

19.7 %

12.7 %

13.9 %

Equity Ratio

21 %

19 %

24 %

18 %

19 %

17 %

17 %

Company Specific Items

2017

2018

2019

2020

2021e

2022e

2023e

NAV/Share

8.42

11.02

13.46

16.86

18.84

20.22

21.78

Vacancy Rate

2.7 %

4.3 %

4.0 %

3.7 %

3.7 %

4.0 %

4.0 %

COM M ENT

Published 02.06.2021

3

DEFAMA Deutsche Fachmarkt AG

RESEARCH

Consolidated profit and loss

In EUR m

2017

2018

2019

2020

2021e

2022e

2023e

Total revenues

5.83

9.09

11.21

14.58

17.77

20.11

22.56

Rental income

5.10

7.61

9.53

12.19

14.93

16.89

18.95

Change yoy

67.9 %

49.2 %

25.1 %

27.9 %

22.5 %

13.2 %

12.2 %

Property operating costs

1.24

2.21

2.63

3.40

4.21

4.67

5.23

Property management costs

0.00

0.00

0.00

0.00

0.00

0.00

0.00

Rental profit

4.58

6.87

8.57

11.18

13.56

15.45

17.32

Income from property sales

0.00

0.00

0.00

0.00

2.60

0.00

0.00

Other revenues

0.12

0.08

0.07

0.12

0.14

0.16

0.18

Gross profit

4.70

6.95

8.64

11.30

16.30

15.61

17.50

Administration expenses

0.35

0.70

0.70

0.81

1.00

1.13

1.26

Personnel expenses

0.47

0.72

1.04

1.50

1.83

2.05

2.30

Other operating income/expenses

0.00

0.00

0.00

0.00

0.00

0.00

0.00

Unfrequent items

n.a.

n.a.

n.a.

n.a.

n.a.

n.a.

n.a.

EBITDA

3.89

5.53

7.04

8.99

13.48

12.43

13.94

Valuation result

0.00

0.00

0.00

0.00

2.60

0.00

0.00

Depreciation of fixed assets

1.22

1.95

2.55

3.36

4.27

4.83

5.41

EBITA

2.67

3.59

4.50

5.62

9.21

7.60

8.53

Amortisation of intangible assets/Goodwill

0.00

0.00

0.00

0.00

0.00

0.00

0.00

EBIT

2.67

3.59

4.50

5.62

9.21

7.60

8.53

Interest income

0.00

0.00

0.01

0.01

0.00

0.00

0.00

Interest expenses

0.90

1.34

1.73

2.14

2.54

2.81

3.11

Other financial income (loss)

0.00

0.00

0.00

0.00

0.00

0.00

0.00

Financial result

-0.90

-1.34

-1.72

-2.13

-2.54

-2.81

-3.11

EBT

1.77

2.25

2.78

3.49

6.67

4.79

5.42

Margin

30.4 %

24.8 %

24.8 %

24.0 %

37.5 %

23.8 %

24.0 %

Total taxes

-0.41

-0.55

-0.71

-0.71

-0.71

-1.23

-1.38

thereof cash taxes

-0.28

-0.36

-0.42

-0.42

-0.42

-0.73

-0.83

Net income from continuing operations

1.36

1.70

2.07

2.51

5.16

3.56

4.04

Income from discontinued operations (net of tax)

0.00

0.00

0.00

0.00

0.00

0.00

0.00

Net income before minorities

1.36

1.70

2.07

2.51

5.16

3.56

4.04

Minority interest

0.00

0.02

0.01

0.00

0.00

0.00

0.00

Net income

1.36

1.68

2.06

2.51

5.15

3.56

4.03

Number of shares, average

3.55

3.62

4.05

4.42

4.42

4.42

4.42

FFO (II)

2.58

3.65

4.62

5.87

7.23

8.38

9.45

FFO I-margin

50.6 %

47.9 %

48.4 %

48.2 %

48.5 %

49.6 %

49.9 %

FFOPS I

0.73

1.01

1.14

1.33

1.64

1.90

2.14

EPS

0.38

0.46

0.51

0.57

1.17

0.80

0.91

EPS adj.

0.38

0.43

0.47

0.57

1.17

0.80

0.91

*Adjustments made for:

Guidance: 2021e: FFO of EUR ~7.1m, Net profit (HGB) of EUR 3.1m

Financial Ratios

2017

2018

2019

2020

2021e

2022e

2023e

Property operating costs / Rental Income

24.4 %

29.1 %

27.6 %

27.9 %

28.2 %

27.6 %

27.6 %

Operating Leverage (Real Estate)

2.4 x

2.9 x

5.0 x

4.6 x

5.5 x

8.8 x

9.3 x

Rental profit / interest expenses

5.1 x

5.1 x

5.0 x

5.2 x

5.3 x

5.5 x

5.6 x

Revenues, EBITDA

Operating Performance

Performance per Share

in EUR m

in %

Source: Warburg Research

Source:

Source: Warburg Research

COM M ENT

Published 02.06.2021

4

DEFAMA Deutsche Fachmarkt AG

RESEARCH

Consolidated balance sheet

In EUR m

2017

2018

2019

2020

2021e

2022e

2023e

Assets

Goodwill and other intangible assets

0.01

0.01

0.03

0.02

0.02

0.02

0.02

thereof other intangible assets

0.00

0.00

0.00

0.00

0.00

0.00

0.00

thereof Goodwill

0.01

0.01

0.03

0.02

0.02

0.02

0.02

Property, plant and equipment

0.03

0.08

0.11

1.39

1.41

1.42

1.43

Investment properties

51.96

81.10

93.14

127.79

141.79

156.64

170.88

Financial assets

0.24

0.26

1.70

0.12

0.45

0.45

0.45

Other long-term assets

0.00

0.00

0.00

0.00

0.00

0.00

0.00

Fixed assets

52.24

81.44

94.98

129.33

143.67

158.53

172.79

Inventories

0.00

0.00

0.00

0.00

0.00

0.00

0.00

Accounts receivable

0.22

0.51

0.00

0.80

0.91

0.93

0.95

Liquid assets

2.49

2.80

6.98

4.28

4.45

4.43

4.56

Other short-term assets

0.83

0.59

-2.56

-0.66

-0.94

-0.94

-1.09

Current assets

3.17

4.34

9.29

7.38

6.37

6.37

6.54

Total Assets

55.41

85.79

104.28

136.71

150.04

164.91

179.33

Liabilities and shareholders' equity

Subscribed capital

3.55

3.90

4.42

4.42

4.42

4.42

4.42

Capital reserve

6.15

10.03

17.31

17.31

17.31

17.31

17.31

Retained earnings

1.59

2.06

2.56

3.07

5.80

6.70

7.86

Other equity components

0.00

0.00

0.00

0.00

0.00

0.00

0.00

Shareholders' equity

11.29

15.99

24.29

24.81

27.53

28.43

29.59

Minority interest

0.10

0.38

0.39

0.40

0.40

0.40

0.40

Provisions

0.36

1.01

0.43

0.51

0.51

0.51

0.51

thereof provisions for pensions and similar obligations

0.18

0.21

0.21

0.25

0.25

0.25

0.25

Financial liabilities (total)

43.07

67.79

76.52

110.25

120.74

134.70

147.97

Short-term financial liabilities

0.00

0.00

0.00

0.00

0.00

0.00

0.00

Accounts payable

0.19

0.30

0.51

0.29

0.42

0.42

0.42

Other liabilities

0.51

0.70

2.54

0.86

0.84

0.84

0.84

Liabilities

44.13

69.79

79.99

111.91

122.51

136.47

149.74

Total liabilities and shareholders' equity

55.41

85.79

104.28

136.71

150.04

164.91

179.33

Financial Ratios

2017

2018

2019

2020

2021e

2022e

2023e

Return on Capital

ROA

3.1 %

2.4 %

2.2 %

2.1 %

3.6 %

2.3 %

2.3 %

ROE

12.4 %

12.3 %

10.2 %

10.2 %

19.7 %

12.7 %

13.9 %

FFO I / Equity

0.2 x

0.3 x

0.2 x

0.2 x

0.3 x

0.3 x

0.3 x

Solvency

Net Debt

40.76

65.20

69.75

106.23

116.55

130.52

143.66

Net Financial Debt

40.58

64.99

69.54

105.98

116.29

130.27

143.41

Net Fin. Debt / EBITDA

10.4 x

11.7 x

9.9 x

11.8 x

8.6 x

10.5 x

10.3 x

LTV

61.1 %

62.0 %

58.2 %

60.2 %

58.1 %

59.1 %

59.5 %

Equity Ratio

20.5 %

19.1 %

23.7 %

18.4 %

18.6 %

17.5 %

16.7 %

LTV

ROE

Book Value per Share

in %

in EUR

Source: Warburg Research

Source: Warburg Research

Source: Warburg Research

COM M ENT

Published 02.06.2021

5

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Disclaimer

Defama Deutsche Fachmarkt AG published this content on 03 June 2021 and is solely responsible for the information contained therein. Distributed by Public, unedited and unaltered, on 03 June 2021 10:48:05 UTC.