2021-12-23
Links: | NBB.Stat | General information |
Monthly business survey - December 2021
Business barometer dips very slightly in December
- On the whole, business confidence has hardly changed over the last three months.
- In December, the indicator has dropped back considerably in business-related services, confirming November's decline. In the other branches of activity, only marginal changes have been observed: upwards in the manufacturing industry and downwards in the trade sector and the building industry.
All components of the indicator have deteriorated in business-related services, in particular the outlook for activity in the firms surveyed. Furthermore, the loss of confidence has affected all service activities.
The slight decline in the building industry is mainly explained by a contraction in order books and by lower use being made of available equipment.
In the trade sector, it is the forecasts for employment and orders placed with suppliers that have been revised downwards.
As for the manufacturing industry, the only branch of activity where business confidence has not wavered, the improvement in the indicator is entirely due to a more favourable assessment of stock levels.
The overall smoothed synthetic curve, which reflects the underlying cyclical trend, continues to fall.
Business survey indicators
Gross synthetic curve | Smoothed synthetic | ||||||
curve1 | |||||||
November | December | Variation in | Variation in | ||||
2021 | 2021 | points | Points | ||||
Manufacturing industry | 2.5 | 3.1 | 0.6 | -0.8 | |||
Business-related services | 15.3 | 10.2 | -5.1 | 0.1 | |||
Building industry | 2.3 | 1.2 | -1.1 | -0.8 | |||
Trade | -2.4 | -3.5 | -1.1 | 0.9 | |||
Overall synthetic curve | 4.2 | 3.6 | -0.6 | -0.9 |
1 The smoothed curve has a two-month delay for the overall synthetic curve and a four-month delay for the branches of activity. This implies that the overall smoothed indicator reflects recent developments more closely than the smoothed indicators per branch.
Source: NBB.
Communication | boulevard de Berlaimont 14 | phone + 32 2 221 46 28 | Company's number: |
National Bank of Belgium Ltd. | BE-1000 BRUSSELS | www.nbb.be | 0203.201.340 - RLP Brussels |
2
DECEMBER 2021
OVERALL SYNTHETIC CURVE
40
30 NCS
20
10
0
-10
-20
-30
-40
-50 | ||||||||||||
2016 | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | |||||||
MANUFACTURING INDUSTRY | BUSINESS-RELATED SERVICES | |||||||||||
40 | 40 | |||||||||||
30 | 30 | |||||||||||
20 | 20 | |||||||||||
10 | 10 | |||||||||||
0 | 0 | |||||||||||
-10 | -10 | |||||||||||
-20 | -20 | |||||||||||
-30 | -30 | |||||||||||
-40 NS975 | -40 | NS296 | ||||||||||
-50 | ||||||||||||
-50 | ||||||||||||
2016 | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | |||||||
2016 | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | |||||||
BUILDING INDUSTRY
40 | ||||||
30 | ||||||
20 | ||||||
10 | ||||||
0 | ||||||
-10 | ||||||
-20 | ||||||
-30 | ||||||
-40 | NS707 | |||||
-50 | ||||||
2016 | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 |
Seasonally adjusted and smoothed series Source: NBB
TRADE
40 | ||||||
30 | ||||||
20 | ||||||
10 | ||||||
0 | ||||||
-10 | ||||||
-20 | ||||||
-30 | ||||||
-40 | NS914 | |||||
-50 | ||||||
2016 | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 |
Seasonally adjusted series
Communication | boulevard de Berlaimont 14 | phone + 32 2 221 46 28 | Company's number: |
National Bank of Belgium Ltd. | BE-1000 BRUSSELS | www.nbb.be | 0203.201.340 - RLP Brussels |
3
SYNTHETIC CURVES AND THEIR COMPONENTS
TABLE 1
Seasonally adjusted balances of ''positive'' answers or | Adjusted series | Smoothed series | |||||||||
''higher than normal''(+) and ''negative'' answers or | 1980-2021 | 1 | 2021 | 2021 | |||||||
''lower than normal''(-). | |||||||||||
Min. | Max. | Avg. | Sept. | Oct. | Nov. | Dec. | July | Aug. | Sept. | Oct. | |
Overall synthetic curve | - 36.1 | + 10.1 | - 7.0 | + 4.0 | + 4.0 | + 4.2 | + 3.6 | + 9.2 | + 7.3 | + 4.9 | + 4.0 |
Manufacturing industry curve | - 36.0 | + 10.0 | - 9.9 | + 3.0 | + 2.3 | + 2.5 | + 3.1 | + 6.4 | + 5.6 | . | . |
Assessment of total order books | - 57.7 | + 10.0 | - 21.1 | - 1.6 | - 2.6 | - 2.2 | - 3.1 | + 0.4 | + 0.0 | . | . |
Assessment of level of stocks ² | - 19.0 | + 25.0 | + 5.4 | - 3.9 | - 3.2 | - 3.3 | - 10.8 | - 9.3 | - 7.3 | . | . |
Employment expectations | - 41.4 | + 11.5 | - 8.3 | + 4.9 | + 3.9 | + 3.7 | + 1.5 | + 8.3 | + 7.5 | . | . |
Demand expectations | - 37.9 | + 15.0 | - 4.7 | + 4.8 | + 4.8 | + 5.3 | + 3.4 | + 8.8 | + 7.6 | . | . |
Business-related services curve | - 62.1 | + 34.0 | + 9.3 | + 8.0 | + 16.4 | + 15.3 | + 10.2 | + 16.2 | + 16.3 | . | . |
Assessment of activity | - 71.6 | + 20.0 | - 6.2 | - 18.5 | - 5.6 | - 8.6 | - 11.5 | - 9.9 | - 8.0 | . | . |
Activity expectations | - 70.7 | + 51.7 | + 21.8 | + 19.3 | + 25.6 | + 29.9 | + 19.1 | + 25.8 | + 25.8 | . | . |
Market demand expectations | - 59.9 | + 45.0 | + 13.5 | + 23.3 | + 29.2 | + 24.4 | + 22.9 | + 29.9 | + 28.6 | . | . |
Building industry curve | - 39.0 | + 24.3 | - 6.7 | + 4.5 | + 1.1 | + 2.3 | + 1.2 | + 5.4 | + 4.6 | . | . |
Trend in orders | - 52.0 | + 40.0 | - 4.0 | + 10.1 | + 1.2 | + 3.7 | - 2.2 | + 11.3 | + 9.6 | . | . |
Trend in equipment | - 38.4 | + 24.0 | + 1.6 | + 1.1 | + 0.9 | - 0.1 | - 2.6 | + 4.4 | + 3.0 | . | . |
Assessment of order books | - 74.0 | + 30.0 | - 21.6 | + 2.0 | + 4.8 | + 5.4 | + 5.1 | + 1.3 | + 2.1 | . | . |
Demand expectations | - 39.0 | + 21.0 | - 2.9 | + 4.9 | - 2.4 | + 0.4 | + 4.4 | + 6.6 | + 5.5 | . | . |
Trade curve | - 41.8 | + 16.0 | - 2.8 | + 2.2 | - 2.0 | - 2.4 | - 3.5 | - 2.4 | - 1.5 | . | . |
Employment expectations | - 33.0 | + 18.0 | + 1.0 | + 7.0 | + 3.8 | + 5.3 | + 2.2 | + 1.4 | + 3.1 | . | . |
Demand expectations | - 56.0 | + 29.0 | - 0.9 | + 5.4 | + 5.3 | - 3.6 | - 0.7 | + 2.4 | + 2.9 | . | . |
Intentions of placing orders | - 40.1 | + 15.0 | - 7.7 | - 5.8 | - 15.2 | - 9.0 | - 11.9 | - 9.9 | - 8.8 | . | . |
- Minimum, maximum and average values of each indicator (adjusted series) since January 1980.
- A positive, respectively negative balance, means that stocks, according to the assessment of entrepreneurs, are higher, respectively lower than normal for the season. When synthetic curves are calculated, the sign of this indicator is therefore reversed.
Communication | boulevard de Berlaimont 14 | phone +32 2 221 46 28 | Company's number: |
National Bank of Belgium Ltd. | BE-1000 BRUSSELS | www.nbb.be | 0203.201.340 - RLP Brussels |
4
OTHER BUSINESS SURVEY INDICATORS
TABLE 2
Seasonally adjusted balances of ''positive'' answers | Adjusted series | Smoothed series | |||||||||
or ''higher than normal''(+) and ''negative'' answers or | 1980-2021 | 1 | 2021 | 2021 | |||||||
''lower than normal''(-). | |||||||||||
Min. | Max. | Avg. | Sept. | Oct. | Nov. | Dec. | July | Aug. | Sept. | Oct. | |
Manufacturing industry | |||||||||||
Trend in production rate | - 53.0 | + 20.0 | - 0.9 | + 5.1 | + 0.5 | - 9.0 | - 0.5 | + 4.0 | + 2.3 | . | . |
Trend in domestic orders | - 48.7 | + 16.0 | - 7.6 | - 4.3 | - 6.4 | - 4.2 | + 0.4 | + 1.2 | - 2.0 | . | . |
Trend in export orders | - 56.3 | + 30.0 | - 2.5 | + 4.7 | - 0.7 | - 3.8 | + 3.8 | + 4.3 | + 2.9 | . | . |
Assessment of export order books | - 61.0 | + 10.0 | - 22.4 | - 0.5 | - 2.0 | + 0.3 | + 0.5 | - 0.9 | - 0.8 | . | . |
Trend in prices | - 21.0 | + 28.0 | + 1.4 | + 26.4 | + 21.7 | + 28.0 | + 26.9 | + 22.7 | + 23.7 | . | . |
Price expectations | - 24.0 | + 43.0 | + 7.0 | + 33.8 | + 29.6 | + 40.4 | + 37.1 | + 32.7 | + 33.6 | . | . |
Production capacity | |||||||||||
(in percentage of the total production capacity) | 70.1 | 84.6 | 78.9 | - | 79.1 | - | - | ||||
Source: quarterly production capacity survey | |||||||||||
Business-related services | |||||||||||
Trend in activity | - 73.0 | + 37.0 | + 9.4 | + 15.3 | + 17.4 | + 14.1 | + 3.5 | + 15.6 | + 15.6 | . | . |
Trend in employment | - 49.4 | + 34.0 | + 6.6 | + 3.2 | + 10.8 | + 4.4 | + 14.9 | + 8.1 | + 7.5 | . | . |
Employment expectations | - 35.0 | + 48.0 | + 17.4 | + 26.5 | + 35.0 | + 41.2 | + 36.4 | + 30.7 | + 33.4 | . | . |
Trend in prices | - 15.8 | + 12.3 | + 1.8 | + 5.4 | + 12.3 | + 9.3 | + 7.7 | + 4.4 | + 5.7 | . | . |
Price expectations | - 13.0 | + 36.1 | + 7.0 | + 19.5 | + 22.4 | + 27.1 | + 36.1 | + 16.6 | + 18.3 | . | . |
Building industry | |||||||||||
Trend in activity | - 66.6 | + 34.7 | - 4.2 | + 3.6 | + 5.7 | + 2.1 | + 3.4 | + 6.6 | + 5.7 | . | . |
Trend in employment | - 38.0 | + 22.0 | - 5.1 | + 0.4 | + 2.3 | + 2.1 | - 2.2 | - 0.4 | + 0.2 | . | . |
Employment expectations | - 50.0 | + 30.0 | - 4.0 | + 19.2 | + 15.2 | + 17.9 | + 18.2 | + 19.3 | + 18.9 | . | . |
Trend in prices | - 27.1 | + 34.8 | - 1.5 | + 32.4 | + 34.2 | + 34.8 | + 32.6 | + 27.4 | + 30.5 | . | . |
Price expectations | - 20.6 | + 46.5 | + 5.6 | + 44.8 | + 43.8 | + 46.5 | + 45.4 | + 40.6 | + 42.8 | . | . |
Trade | |||||||||||
Trend in sales | - 50.1 | + 43.0 | - 0.9 | - 19.1 | - 15.2 | - 23.4 | + 8.4 | - 3.6 | - 7.5 | . | . |
Assessment of sales | - 50.0 | + 28.0 | - 9.4 | - 18.9 | - 16.9 | - 9.4 | + 1.0 | - 8.6 | - 11.9 | . | . |
Assessment of level of stocks ² | - 12.9 | + 38.1 | + 11.9 | - 2.9 | - 3.2 | - 4.2 | - 3.6 | + 1.3 | - 0.3 | . | . |
Trend in prices | - 23.5 | + 50.0 | + 1.9 | + 34.9 | + 19.7 | + 28.6 | + 24.4 | + 11.1 | + 15.0 | . | . |
Price expectations | - 14.2 | + 66.2 | + 11.3 | + 28.5 | + 34.3 | + 34.5 | + 45.7 | + 22.2 | + 25.3 | . | . |
- Minimum, maximum and average values of each indicator (adjusted series) since January 1980.
- A positive, respectively negative balance, means that stocks, according to the assessment of entrepreneurs, are higher, respectively lower than normal for the season.
Communication | boulevard de Berlaimont 14 | phone +32 2 221 46 28 | Company's number: |
National Bank of Belgium Ltd. | BE-1000 BRUSSELS | www.nbb.be | 0203.201.340 - RLP Brussels |
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National Bank of Belgium published this content on 23 December 2021 and is solely responsible for the information contained therein. Distributed by Public, unedited and unaltered, on 23 December 2021 14:16:08 UTC.