Banque Nationale de Belgique : Press release - Business confidence indicator (2018-01) PDF

Links:

2018-01-25 2005-12-22

NBB.Stat

General information

Monthly business survey - January 2018

Business confidence recovers in January

• x The recovery wipes out last month's fall.

• x Renewed confidence has been recorded in all branches of activity surveyed.

The business climate firmed up in January, especially in the building industry, mainly thanks to more optimistic demand forecasts and a more positive appraisal of total order books.

In the business-related services sector, the improvement was also based on an upward revision in the outlook for activity and, in particular, on expectations regarding general market demand.

Demand forecasts picked up somewhat in the trade sector, along with the big increase expected in orders placed with suppliers.

The moderate growth of the indicator in the manufacturing industry is entirely attributable to a more favourable assessment of total order books.

Giving an indication of the underlying economic trend, the smoothed overall synthetic curve is pointing upwards.

As for the results of the quarterly survey of production capacities in the manufacturing industry, the figures actually point to a drop in the utilisation rate. The seasonally-adjusted production capacity utilisation rate fell back to 80.7 % in January 2018 - thus returning to its January 2017 level -, compared with 81.7 % in October 2017.

Business survey indicators

Gross synthetic curve					Smoothed synthetic curve1
December 2017	January 2018	variation in points	variation in points
Manufacturing industry Business-related services Building industry Trade Overall synthetic curve	-1.8 11.4 -0.8 -6.2 0.1	-1.2 14.6 3.6 -3.1 1.8	0.6 3.2 4.4 3.1 1.7	0.8 0.2 0.6 -0.1 0.9

1 The smoothed curve has a two-month delay for the overall synthetic curve and a four-month delay for the branches of activity. Source: NBB.

Communication	boulevard de Berlaimont 14	phone + 32 2 221 46 28	Company's number:
National Bank of Belgium Ltd.	BE-1000 BRUSSELS	www.nbb.be	0203.201.340 - RLP Brussels

2

JANUARY 2018

OVERALL SYNTHETIC CURVE

MANUFACTURING INDUSTRY

BUSINESS-RELATED SERVICESBUILDING INDUSTRY

TRADE

Seasonally adjusted and smoothed series

Seasonally adjusted series

Source: NBB

Communication	boulevard de Berlaimont 14	phone + 32 2 221 46 28	Company's number:
National Bank of Belgium Ltd.	BE-1000 BRUSSELS	www.nbb.be	0203.201.340 - RLP Brussels

SYNTHETIC CURVES AND THEIR COMPONENTS

TABLE 1

Seasonally adjusted balances of ''positive'' answers or ''higher than normal''(+) and ''negative'' answers or ''lower than normal''(-).	1980-2018 1 Min. Max. Avg.	Adjusted series 2017 Oct. Nov. Dec. 2018 Jan.	Smoothed series 2017 Aug. Sept. Oct. Nov.
Overall synthetic curve Manufacturing industry curve Assessment of total order books Assessment of level of stocks ² Employment expectations Demand expectations Business-related services curve Assessment of activity Activity expectations Market demand expectations Building industry curve Trend in orders Trend in equipment Assessment of order books Demand expectations Trade curve Employment expectations Demand expectations Intentions of placing orders	- 31.8 + 9.2 - 7.3 - 34.3 + 6.0 - 10.3 - 56.0 + 10.0 - 21.6 - 12.9 + 25.0 + 6.1 - 36.0 + 8.0 - 8.6 - 37.0 + 15.0 - 5.0 - 41.7 + 34.0 + 10.6 - 54.4 + 20.0 - 4.7 - 32.0 + 51.7 + 23.3 - 43.0 + 45.0 + 14.4 - 39.0 + 24.3 - 7.5 - 52.0 + 40.0 - 4.7 - 19.4 + 24.0 + 1.8 - 74.0 + 30.0 - 23.7 - 39.0 + 21.0 - 3.3 - 28.6 + 16.0 - 2.0 - 18.4 + 18.0 + 1.9 - 40.0 + 29.0 + 0.2 - 39.0 + 15.0 - 7.1	+ 0.5 + 1.6 + 0.1 + 1.8 - 0.4 - 0.2 - 1.8 - 1.2 - 9.2 - 7.4 - 8.5 - 3.6 + 4.5 + 0.6 + 3.0 + 3.2 + 5.8 + 0.8 + 0.7 - 1.1 + 6.2 + 6.5 + 3.4 + 3.2 + 7.7 + 12.4 + 11.4 + 14.6 - 0.1 - 1.2 + 6.2 - 1.3 + 14.2 + 21.3 + 12.0 + 16.5 + 9.0 + 17.1 + 16.1 + 28.7 - 1.7 - 0.4 - 0.8 + 3.6 - 1.4 + 4.4 + 4.9 + 4.9 - 2.1 - 0.5 - 0.6 + 1.4 - 5.6 - 2.5 - 4.0 + 2.1 + 2.2 - 2.9 - 3.6 + 5.9 - 1.5 - 2.4 - 6.2 - 3.1 + 4.6 + 0.7 - 0.4 - 0.2 - 1.3 - 3.3 - 4.0 - 2.9 - 7.8 - 4.5 - 14.2 - 6.3	- 2.1 - 1.4 - 0.1 + 0.8 - 4.4 - 3.6 . . - 12.6 - 11.8 . . + 2.3 + 2.8 - 3.7 - 2.3 . . . . + 1.3 + 2.8 . . + 9.8 + 10.0 . . - 0.7 - 0.7 + 19.9 + 19.0 + 9.0 + 10.1 . . . . . . - 3.2 - 2.6 . . - 0.3 + 0.5 - 0.8 - 0.8 . . . . - 9.2 - 7.8 + 0.9 + 0.4 . . . . - 0.3 - 0.4 . . + 1.7 + 2.4 - 1.9 - 2.1 - 2.8 - 3.5 . . . . . .

• 1 Minimum, maximum and average values of each indicator (adjusted series) since January 1980.

• 2 A positive, respectively negative balance, means that stocks, according to the assessment of entrepreneurs, are higher, respectively lower than normal for the season. When synthetic curves are calculated, the sign of this indicator is therefore reversed.

Communication	boulevard de Berlaimont 14	phone [phone]	Company's number:
National Bank of Belgium Ltd.	BE-1000 BRUSSELS	www.nbb.be	0203.201.340 - RLP Brussels

OTHER BUSINESS SURVEY INDICATORS

TABLE 2

Seasonally adjusted balances of ''positive'' answers or ''higher than normal''(+) and ''negative'' answers or ''lower than normal''(-).	1980-2018 1 Min. Max. Avg.	Adjusted series 2017 Oct. Nov. Dec. 2018 Jan.	Smoothed series 2017 Aug. Sept. Oct. Nov.
Manufacturing industry Trend in production rate Trend in domestic orders Trend in export orders Assessment of export order books Trend in prices Price expectations Production capacity (in percentage of the total production capacity) Source: quarterly production capacity survey Business-related services Trend in activity Trend in employment Employment expectations Trend in prices Price expectations Building industry Trend in activity Trend in employment Employment expectations Trend in prices Price expectations Trade Trend in sales Assessment of sales Assessment of level of stocks ² Trend in prices Price expectations	- 33.0 + 20.0 - 0.8 - 35.0 + 16.0 - 7.8 - 44.0 + 30.0 - 2.6 - 61.0 + 10.0 - 23.0 - 21.0 + 24.0 + 1.0 - 24.0 + 43.0 + 6.8 70.1 84.6 79.0 - 38.0 + 37.0 + 10.1 - 49.4 + 34.0 + 7.0 - 35.0 + 48.0 + 17.7 - 15.8 + 12.0 + 1.7 - 13.0 + 30.0 + 6.4 - 44.0 + 34.7 - 4.7 - 38.0 + 22.0 - 5.4 - 50.0 + 30.0 - 5.4 - 27.1 + 32.0 - 2.2 - 20.6 + 46.0 + 5.0 - 47.9 + 43.0 + 0.1 - 41.0 + 28.0 - 8.9 - 12.9 + 32.0 + 12.0 - 20.0 + 50.0 + 1.9 - 11.0 + 66.2 + 11.5	- 3.8 + 3.7 + 4.1 + 4.2 - 8.3 + 1.2 - 0.9 - 4.9 - 0.9 + 10.1 + 8.2 + 11.2 - 12.7 - 6.3 - 4.6 - 2.0 + 13.5 + 4.3 + 3.8 + 9.7 + 9.3 + 10.5 + 9.4 + 15.4 81.7 --80.7 + 4.8 + 20.0 + 18.5 - 16.4 + 5.7 + 20.3 + 13.4 + 6.6 + 18.8 + 24.0 + 18.5 + 28.9 + 4.4 + 5.9 + 7.0 + 5.8 + 11.1 + 15.7 + 27.0 + 20.8 - 10.0 + 0.8 + 5.0 + 4.2 - 6.9 - 3.6 - 6.5 + 0.2 + 7.0 + 5.8 + 8.6 + 9.3 - 1.8 - 0.2 - 3.8 + 4.3 + 4.7 + 6.0 + 4.6 + 8.7 - 3.1 - 11.4 - 8.1 - 8.6 - 14.7 - 21.8 - 19.8 - 13.9 + 5.1 + 12.7 + 8.8 + 10.1 + 12.8 - 7.5 - 2.5 - 2.9 + 11.5 + 11.8 + 10.9 + 7.5	+ 1.5 + 1.5 - 2.6 - 1.6 - 1.9 + 2.0 - 13.8 - 12.9 + 2.5 + 2.9 + 6.1 + 7.9 . . . . . . . . . . . . + 8.9 + 11.6 + 13.0 + 13.3 + 21.3 + 21.3 + 4.8 + 5.1 + 9.3 + 10.4 . . . . . . . . . . + 0.3 + 0.2 - 4.5 - 4.7 + 3.4 + 4.5 + 0.3 - 0.1 + 3.6 + 4.1 . . . . . . . . . . - 14.5 - 12.9 - 19.7 - 19.8 + 8.5 + 9.3 - 2.9 - 2.7 + 9.8 + 10.8 . . . . . . . . . .

• 1 Minimum, maximum and average values of each indicator (adjusted series) since January 1980.

• 2 A positive, respectively negative balance, means that stocks, according to the assessment of entrepreneurs, are higher, respectively lower than normal for the season.

Communication	boulevard de Berlaimont 14	phone [phone]	Company's number:
National Bank of Belgium Ltd.	BE-1000 BRUSSELS	www.nbb.be	0203.201.340 - RLP Brussels