A surprising reversal of fortunes on Wall Street, both in equities (-1.5% straight up on the Nasdaq) and in T-Bonds, which literally collapsed in the afternoon, with yields soaring from +10 to +12.5pts.

It had all started out in the best possible way, with the S&P and Nasdaq raining down all-time highs in the first 3 quarters... but the rest of the session was marked by lightening on a broad front.
The Nasdaq broke through the 18,000 barrier and set a new all-time record at 18,035: it gained +0.7% over the week, +9% over the 2nd quarter and has posted +18.6% since January 1st... and the Nasdaq-100 climbed above 20,000 to reach 20.017 (a fivefold increase since February 2016 and a doubling since the end of June 2020) before finishing at -0.55%.

Record also broken for the S&P500 around 4.15pm (-0.4% to 5,460 in the end) after reaching a high of 5,523, i.e. +0.15% over the week, +4% over the quarter and +14.7% since January 1st.
The Nasdaq ended down -0.7% despite gains - and sometimes intraday records - by Microchip, Comcast, MongoDB +2.3%, Qualcomm and AMD +1.7%, NXP and Applied Materials +1.5%

The Dow Jones (-0,12%) was weighed down by Nike's -20% to $75.4, Merck's -4.6%, Amazon's -2.3%, Apple's -1.6% and Microsoft's -1.3% (all 3 giants also weighing on the Nasdaq).

But over the 1st half, the Nasdaq crushed the competition thanks to Super Micro +189%, Nvidia +150%, ARM +117%, Meta +42%, Google +30%, Amazon +27%, Microsoft 20.5%.

The Dow Jones only gained +4% in the 1st half, weighed down by Walgreen -54%, Intel -38%, Boeing and Nike -30%.
The S&P500 was slowed down by the real estate sector with -4%, 'materials' and consumer goods with +5%.

The day was punctuated by the publication of the much-awaited 'PCE' index, but as is often the case when suspense seems 'huge', it translates into a non-event.
The annual inflation rate for the US consumer basket fell by -0.1% as expected to 2.6% on a gross basis, and by 0.2 points to 2.6% on an underlying basis (excluding energy and food), compared with an anticipated -0.1% decline on a core basis.
The U.S. '10-yr' gave a very warm welcome to these figures, easing 4 points to 4.2600% shortly after 2.30 p.m... but steam completely reversed from 3.45pm onwards, and the heaviness increased with each passing hour, so that T-Bonds ended at their lowest point, with yields soaring by +10Pts on Friday (and +13Pts on a weekly basis), to their worst levels since June 11, i.e. 4.38%, with the '30-yr' adding +12.5Pts to 4.552%.

The Commerce Department also reported that US household spending rose by 0.2% in May compared with the previous month, while incomes rose by 0.5% (more than expected).

It's hard to say whether the majority of "optimists" will continue to expect the Fed to cut rates after its September meeting (the ratio is balanced at 50/50 this evening), but strong growth and persistent inflation (WTI is up to $81.3) have called into question the idea that the Fed will cut rates several times this year.


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