By Kirk Maltais


-Wheat for September delivery fell 1.4% to $5.82 1/4 a bushel on the Chicago Board of Trade on Tuesday, with traders selling on indications that Russia's winter wheat yield look better than initially expected.

-Soybeans for November delivery rose 0.2% to $11.13 a bushel.

-Corn for December delivery rose 0.2% to $4.21 1/4 a bushel.


HIGHLIGHTS


Back Under Pressure: CBOT wheat stayed lower throughout the day, as Russia's early harvest of winter wheat is showing higher yields than initially expected, according to Russian research firms. U.S. wheat futures have not been able to maintain a multi-day rally -- the most-active contract failing to string together two consecutive positive closes since late May, falling more than 15% since then. "Ran a little too hard up yesterday so a little profit taking today," Karl Setzer of Consus Ag Consulting said. "A simple lack of follow-through buying is negative as well."

On the International Stage: Soybeans traded higher as analysts mulled how new tariffs on China could affect the soybeans supply chain--and how that could benefit U.S. soybean exports. Indonesia plans to impose import tariffs of up to 200% on a host of Chinese goods, to combat the flood of Chinese-made products hitting its markets. "This could include tariffs on Chinese palm oil imports," ADM Investor Services said in a note. The firm adds that China may also be interested in buying more U.S. soybeans on fears that a potential Trump presidency doubles down on the trade war that raged during his first term.


INSIGHT


Course Change: Last Friday's Acreage and Quarterly Stocks reports from the USDA continue to be top of mind for traders and analysts. Much of the action in the past two sessions was based on the belief that higher-than-expected corn acres means production will likely be better than expected. However, traders are looking more at the USDA's Quarterly Stocks data to figure out how much corn farmers are holding in wait for better export prices instead of selling. According to USDA data, 36.5% of corn is currently held in domestic facilities around the country. At over 3 billion bushels in storage, it's the largest amount since 1988.

Pushing the Limit: Corn's rise was pared as the afternoon progressed, but it still finished in positive territory -- reversing a losing streak of roughly 8% since mid-June. This may have been a response to sentiments of corn being oversold, but seasonality could limit corn's future gains. "The only year that corn futures rallied throughout July was 2012," said Naomi Blohm of Total Farm Marketing in a note, adding that a severe drought happening at the time sets that year apart. "Otherwise… whatever bounce corn futures see this week, should likely be sold, as prices then have a tendency to grind lower until the harvest low."

Money Troubles: Farmers in the U.S. are worried that weak commodity prices may combine with stubbornly high inflation and input costs to create a drag on their earnings, said a joint survey from Purdue University and the CME Group. The survey maps farmer sentiment in a barometer, broken down into feelings about different topics among surveyed farmers. The barometer fell 3 points this month to a score of 105, based on souring future expectations. "Interest rate risk and high breakeven levels combined with concerns that crop and livestock prices could weaken are holding back producer sentiment and making producers cautious about making large investments," said James Mintert, director of Purdue's Center for Commercial Agriculture.


AHEAD


-The EIA will release its weekly ethanol production and stocks report at 10:30 a.m. ET Wednesday.

-The USDA and Chicago Board of Trade will be closed in observance of Independence Day. Both will reopen on Friday.

-The USDA will release its weekly export sales report at 8:30 a.m. ET Friday.


Write to Kirk Maltais at kirk.maltais@wsj.com

(END) Dow Jones Newswires

07-02-24 1550ET