By Kirk Maltais


--Wheat for September delivery rose 3.6% to $5.80 3/4 a bushel on the Chicago Board of Trade Thursday, surging ahead of Friday's reports from the USDA, this after shedding nearly 20% in the past month.

--Soybeans for November delivery fell 0.2% to $11.05 a bushel.

--Corn for December delivery fell 0.6% to $4.33 3/4 a bushel.


HIGHLIGHTS


Hit the Ground Running: Today's strong export sales figures kicked a rebound for wheat into high gear, said Linda Meyer of AgriSource. "The combination of strong wheat sales and oversold markets are pushing wheat prices higher," said Meyer. Other factors helping wheat include traders preparing for tomorrow's USDA reports and the end of the month and quarter as a whole.

Blame it on the Rain: Traders and analysts continue to evaluate why the market doesn't seem worried about potential weather issues for crops this summer--even after hot weather and flooding have hit some Corn Belt states, and this year's hurricane season is expected to be strong. "Trade afraid to add weather premium despite talk of lower Brazil and Argentina crops and continued dryness in Mexico and the Southern Midwest," says ADM Investor Services in a note. For corn and soybeans, traders continued to downplay the effects of inclement weather and maintained selling on those grains.


INSIGHT


Reversing Course: The recent tumble in grain futures may mean that it could only take a slight surprise out of Friday's Acreage and Quarterly Stocks reports to spark a rally. "You have to wonder how much more negativity the reports could introduce to the market since there is certainly a lot of negativity already factored in," said Tomm Pfitzenmaier of Summit Commodity Brokerage in a note. These month-end reports coincide with the end of 2Q, which only increases the volatility in trading.

Supply Chain Disruption: The flooding seen in the northern Corn Belt states has disrupted rail, trucking, and on-water shipping for grains, according to the USDA. Earlier this week, a bridge operated by BNSF Railway connecting North Sioux City, S.D., and Sioux City, Iowa over the Big Sioux River collapsed. This, along with other washouts of tracks, sparked many areas being put 'out of service', the USDA said in its latest Grain Transportation Report. Trucking movement has also been disrupted by flooding hitting main roads and other smaller state roads, and flooding of the Mississippi River has forced some locks of the river to close.

Long Term Outlook: Commodity strength across the board this year is expected to reverse course through the second half of 2024 into 2025, Capital Economics said in a note. The firm says that even with falling interest rates and improving GDP growth worldwide, commodity demand is expected to be challenged by factors like a growing supply of energy commodities globally, as well as a slowdown in economic activity in China. For grains, China is a leading customer for U.S. exports, making a slowdown in their economy potentially an issue for agricultural demand.


AHEAD


--The USDA will release its yearly Acreage report at noon ET Friday.

--The USDA will release its quarterly Grain Stocks report at noon ET Friday.

--The USDA will release its monthly Agricultural Prices report at noon ET Friday.

--The CFTC will release its weekly Commitment of Traders report at 3:30 p.m. ET Friday.


Write to Kirk Maltais at kirk.maltais@wsj.com


(END) Dow Jones Newswires

06-27-24 1556ET