By Kirk Maltais


--Wheat for May delivery fell 2% to $6.92 a bushel on the Chicago Board of Trade on Thursday, as weak export sales combined with tentativeness ahead of Friday's key USDA reports helping to sink the futures market.

--Soybeans for May delivery fell 0.2% to $14.77 a bushel.

--Corn for May delivery fell 0.2% to $6.49 3/4 a bushel.


HIGHLIGHTS


Poor Showing: General caution played into grain futures trading Thursday following weak export sales data from the USDA. "Recent excitement in wheat is tempered by renewed evidence of poor U.S. export demand," said Brian Splitt of AgMarket.net. The USDA said wheat sales for the week ended March 23 totaled 189,100 metric tons across both the 2022/23 and 2023/24 marketing years. Friday's quarterly stocks report may help turn momentum around by showing tighter-than-expected wheat inventories, Mr. Splitt said.

Looking Abroad: In addition to uncertainty surrounding what USDA reports may show, grain traders also moved cautiously in the face of developments around the world. "That will steer trade along with the finish of the South American growing season, Black Sea strife and the impact on markets from what looks like more Fed tightening," Ocean State Research's Joel Karlin said.


INSIGHT


Trending Lower: The easing of agricultural futures prices is expected to continue in 2023, with projections for average row crop prices in the upcoming marketing year mostly below where they are now. In a new report from the Food and Agricultural Policy Research Institute at the University of Missouri, the average price for corn bushels for the 2023/24 marketing year was seen at $5.32, with soybeans at $12.17 a bushel and wheat at $7.39 a bushel. Currently, corn and soybean futures are trading above the institute's estimates. They expect crop production to grow faster than demand, with drought conditions that have plagued farmland in recent years easing.

Cut to Volumes: The USDA says that shipments of grains transported via rail in the U.S. have been on a steady decline since January. In its latest Grain Transportation Report, the USDA said that the seven Class I railroads originated 20,572 grain carloads in the week ending March 18, down 20% from the prior five-year average for that week. The USDA said that BNSF Railway had the biggest drop-off in shipments, with the slowdown coming partially from adverse winter weather in the Midwest.


AHEAD


-The USDA will release its Quarterly Grain Stocks report at noon ET Friday.

-The USDA will release its annual Prospective Planting report at noon ET Friday.

-The USDA will release its monthly Agricultural Prices report at 3 p.m. ET Friday.


Write to Kirk Maltais at kirk.maltais@wsj.com

(END) Dow Jones Newswires

03-30-23 1601ET