By Kirk Maltais


--Soybeans for November delivery fell 2.7% to $13.42 a bushel on the Chicago Board of Trade on Thursday, with weather forecasts signaling rain in some areas, causing traders to reduce the weather premium.

--Corn for December delivery fell 1.3% to $6.21 a bushel.

--Wheat for July delivery rose 0.7% to $7.39 3/4 a bushel.


HIGHLIGHTS


Let It Rain: Improved prospects for rainfall in the Corn Belt may ease stress from drought conditions. "Yesterday evening's GFS model run was wetter for the northwestern Corn Belt and eastern half of the Northern Plains July 1-3," said Terry Reilly of Futures International in a note. "If verified, dryness relief would occur across Iowa, southern Minnesota, northern Illinois, and Wisconsin." Futures got a lift on Wednesday after the USDA's Crop Progress report showed degraded conditions for U.S. grains.

Well Past Expectations: Daily production of U.S. ethanol surged last week, touching its highest average since December 2022, according to government data. The EIA said production for the week ended June 16 averaged 1.052 million barrels a day, up from 1.018 million barrels a day in the previous week. Analysts surveyed by Dow Jones had forecast daily production of 999,000 barrels a day to 1.02 million barrels a day. Inventories of ethanol also rose, climbing nearly 600,000 barrels to 22.8 million barrels, exceeding expectations.


INSIGHT


Change of Pace: The grain futures contracts' shift lower after four sessions of gains isn't a signal of changing fundamentals in the market. "CBOT markets are overbought and having a correction today," Craig Turner of StoneX said in a note. "We have a good, old-fashioned weather market on our hands, all it takes is one soaking rain across Iowa, Missouri, Illinois, and Indiana to send prices steeply lower." However, Turner adds, substantial rains are needed to change the momentum of grains longer term.

Shipping: Issues with low water levels on the Panama Canal are expected to impact the travel of large vessels carrying U.S. grain shipments, the USDA said in its latest Grains Transportation Report. The agency said Panama is having its worst drought in over a century, and record-low water levels are possible by mid-July, which may result in restrictions on the size of vessels moving through locks of the canal. "This restriction will affect the largest bulk vessels carrying U.S.-originated grain," the USDA said.


AHEAD


--The USDA will release its weekly export sales report at 8:30 a.m. ET Friday.

--The USDA will release its monthly Cattle on Feed report at 3 p.m. ET Friday.

--The USDA will release its monthly Cold Storage report at 3 p.m. ET Friday.


Write to Kirk Maltais at kirk.maltais@wsj.com


(END) Dow Jones Newswires

06-22-23 1606ET