By Paulo Trevisani
--Wheat for July delivery rose 1.5%, to $6.26 1/4 a bushel, on the Chicago Board of Trade on Thursday, as forecasts of dry weather fueled expectations of lower supplies.
--Corn for July delivery rose 1%, to $6.10 1/4 a bushel.
--Soybeans for July delivery rose 0.2%, to $13.63 1/4 a bushel.
HIGHLIGHTS
Weather Boost: Forecasts of dry weather pushed grain futures up after a weak opening. With Midwest subsoil moisture in freefall, "the need for rain is immediate with producers reporting poor germination and seed death of corn/soybeans that were planted after mid-May," AgResource analysts said in a report. "Crop yield potential could drop quickly without a needed Midwest rain."
Dry Beans: Soybeans futures scored a third consecutive daily rise, as uncertainty about upcoming rainfall stoked volatility in grains trade. "The technical indicators are pointing higher, but the improvement in the weather forecast is offsetting that and weather is likely to continue to dominate the soybean price for the next 60 days," Summit's Tomm Pfitzenmaier said in a report. He added that "funds have plenty of fire power and if they turn back to buyers, there is plenty of upside potential for the soy complex." If it rains, there's no reason to be long, he said.
INSIGHT
Crops Report: All eyes were on Friday's WASDE report, with some traders focusing on old-crop estimates since the new crop is more dependent on weather forecasts many deem unreliable. Futures International's Terry Reilly said that "June is normally a neutral month for the U.S. balance sheets," but still "I do look for a downward revision in US corn industrial usage." Reilly will also focus on global wheat production due to lower projected wheat output for Australia and some other countries. "But most importantly if and by how much USDA lowers Argentina soybean and corn production," he said.
Brazilian Corn: USDA projections for South American grains crop will be something to watch in tomorrow's WASDE report, RCM's Doug Bergman said. "The Brazil corn crop seems to be getting bigger and [the USDA] surprisingly did not lower Argentine corn/bean production last month," he said. "I think U.S. production is too influenced by the weather right now to put much faith in any adjustments they make to 2023/24 corn and bean production." The report is due Friday at noon and analysts polled by The Wall Street Journal forecast, on average, Brazil corn production projection rising to 130.8 million metric tons from the USDA's last estimate of 130 million tons.
AHEAD
--The USDA will release its monthly world supply and demand report at noon ET Friday.
--The CFTC will release its weekly Commitment of Traders report at 3:30 p.m. ET Friday.
--The USDA will release its weekly grains export inspections report at 11 a.m. ET Monday.
--The USDA will release its weekly crop progress report at 4 p.m. ET Monday.
--The EIA will release its weekly ethanol production and stocks report at 10:30 a.m. ET Wednesday.
Write to Paulo Trevisani at paulo.trevisani@wsj.com
(END) Dow Jones Newswires
06-08-23 1527ET
