By Kirk Maltais


The U.S. Department of Agriculture raised its estimates for crop production and stocks for the 2023/24 marketing year, which sent grain futures in Chicago plummeting.

In its monthly World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates released Friday, the USDA expects U.S. corn production to total 15.34 billion bushels, while soybean output is seen at 4.17 billion bushels. Both figures are up from last month's projections and are slightly higher than the changes expected by analysts. For corn, the USDA's forecast means that 2023 was a record production year.

Analysts surveyed by The Wall Street Journal had forecast corn production at 15.22 billion bushels, with a yield of 174.9 bushel an acre and ending stocks of 2.11 billion bushels. Soybeans were forecast at production of 4.12 billion bushels, with a yield of 49.8 bushels an acre and ending stocks of 238 million bushels.

The USDA also released its quarterly stocks report Friday, which showed inventories for the quarter ended in December mostly higher from the same time last year, and above analyst estimates. Corn stockpiles through December totaled 12.17 billion bushels and wheat stocks came in at 1.41 billion bushels. Soybean stocks totaled 3 billion bushels, slightly down from this time last year.

The higher production and stocks figures reported by the USDA gave grain traders confirmation that the supply picture in the U.S. was more forgiving than previously thought. Going into the [next] marketing year, supplies are forecast at comfortable levels across the board," said Doug Bergman of RCM Alternatives in a note following the WASDE's release.

In another separate report issued Friday, the USDA projected total winter wheat seedings at 34.4 million acres. That's down from last year's figure of 36.7 million acres, and below the analyst target of 35.9 million acres.

After the release of the reports, grains futures on the Chicago Board of Trade fell. Most-active corn is now the leading loser on the CBOT, being down 3.5%. Soybeans are down 2.4% and wheat is down 2.1%.

Whether or not grain futures are in for a new streak of losses is being debated among traders following the report's release. "This train is leaving town," said Charlie Sernatinger of Marex in a note, calling today's WASDE 'negative all around.'


Write to Kirk Maltais at kirk.maltais@wsj.com


(END) Dow Jones Newswires

01-12-24 1325ET