By Paul Vieira
OTTAWA -- Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau replaced one of his trusted economic ministers after the minister said he didn't plan to run for re-election in a campaign that is widely expected to happen later this year.
An election would allow Mr. Trudeau to capitalize on his relatively solid showing in the polls, and turn his 14-month-old minority administration into a majority government. Mr. Trudeau wants to implement a relatively left-leaning agenda to rebuild the economy and shore up weaknesses -- such as a lack of day-care spaces and elderly care -- the pandemic has exposed in the social-welfare safety net.
The switch was triggered by Navdeep Bains, the country's industry minister, who said he wouldn't seek office again and planned to leave the cabinet immediately. He said he wanted to spend more time with his family, especially his two young daughters. Besides serving in cabinet, Mr. Bains was a senior political organizer in the vote-rich suburban Toronto area, which the Liberals largely swept in the last election.
At a press conference outside his residence in the capital, Mr. Trudeau said the shift wasn't tied to the prospect of a pending election. However, he declined on several occasions to make a pledge about holding off on calling a national vote, including until a majority of Canadians are vaccinated. In a radio interview last week, Mr. Trudeau said a national vote "could well happen" this year.
"I lead a minority government and I can't control what other parties do, " Mr. Trudeau at his Tuesday press conference. "We will focus on getting through this pandemic, vaccinating as many people as possible as quickly as possible...and we need to ensure all have an equal chance of success in our economy."
Others believe a vote is in the offing. Mr. Bains' departure "reinforces the escalating speculation that we could see a federal election this spring," according to a note published by Summa Strategies, an Ottawa lobbying firm.
Andre Albinati, a principal at Ottawa lobbying firm Earnscliffe Strategy Group and a former Liberal government official, said Mr. Trudeau and party officials are fine-tuning core policy proposals and locking down commitments from legislators about their willingness to run in a spring campaign. "Those are signals that you start seeing when the government is preparing for that election possibility," he said.
He said the introduction of the annual budget plan, generally in March or the spring, would mark the most opportune time for Mr. Trudeau to go to voters for another mandate. The budget plan would outline the policy agenda the Liberal government wants to implement, and how it plans to finance these new measures. In recent months, Mr. Trudeau and his cabinet have signaled a renewed focus on social policy that would signal a shift to the left.
Finance Minister Chrystia Freeland said last month the Liberal government would spend roughly 100 Canadian billion dollars, or the equivalent of $78 billion, over the next three years. That would be on top of hundreds of billions in virus-related spending that has led Canada's fiscal position to deteriorate at the fastest pace among Group of 20 industrialized and emerging economies.
The Liberals have also unveiled new measures on other priority-policy items, such as the environment. Mr. Trudeau said his government planned to sharply increase its carbon tax starting in about two years to fulfill an electoral promise to attain net-zero greenhouse-gas emissions by 2050.
Weekly poll tracking from Ottawa-based Nanos Research indicates the Liberal Party enjoys the support of 40% of voters, versus 27% for the second-place Conservative Party. Under Canada's electoral system, 40% support would likely result in a Liberal majority government.
Nik Nanos, head of Nanos Research, cited a correlation between support for Mr. Trudeau and deteriorating developments in Canada in containing Covid-19 spread. Canada has recorded rapid growth in Covid-19 cases over the past few months, and forced regions to impose economic restrictions because of dwindling hospital capacity. "The Liberals are seen as imperfect, but comparatively a safe choice so far."
The Trudeau-led Liberals won a majority government in 2015, and managed only a minority mandate in its 2019 re-election bid -- meaning it has to rely on opposition parties to pass legislation and remain in power. The 2019 setback was partly due to a hit Mr. Trudeau sustained from a political scandal that dogged him for months.
(END) Dow Jones Newswires
01-12-21 1400ET
