Talking Points:
- USDOLLAR Benefits From 288K NFP; Struggles to Push Back Above Former Support
- EUR/USD Fails to Maintain Bullish Setup as ECB Sees T-LTRO Up to EUR 1T
- AUD/USD Holds Near-Term Support Despite Stronger RBA Verbal Intervention
Index | Last | High | Low | Daily Change (%) | Daily Range (% of ATR) |
DJ-FXCM Dollar Index | 10433.91 | 10442.4 | 10391.22 | 0.42 | 159.68% |
USDOLLAR(Ticker: USDollar):
- Dow Jones-FXCM U.S. Dollar Index & the Relative Strength Index (RSI) breaks out of the bearish trend as Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) climb 288K, jobless rate slips to 6.1% - lowest since September 2008.
- However, former support around 10,440 (78.6% Fibonacci retracement) appears to be acting as new resistance.
- Bearish outlook remains as USDOLLAR retains broader downward trending channel from earlier this year, with the next topside objective stands at the 10,470 pivot.
- Questions remains whether 288K NFP will alter the Fed’s policy outlook.
EUR/USD:
- Fails to retain the bullish setup from June as European Central Bank (ECB) stands unanimous on non-standard measures & sees targeted Long-Term Refinancing Operations (LTRO) reaching up to EUR 1T.
- As the pair turns around ahead of the 1.3700 handle, could see a more meaningful assault on 1.3500 as ECB presses on with easing cycle.
- Will watch support/resistance for now as RSI remains stuck in wedge/triangle formation.
AUD/USD:
- Breaks down from ascending channel formation as Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) Governor Glenn Stevens toughens verbal intervention.
- Catching support around 0.9330-40, but waiting for key triggers on the RSI as it breaks near-term bullish momentum; still waiting for the longer-term trend to give way.
- Could see a move back towards 0.9200 handle once all of the bullish RSI structures are wiped out.
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![AUD/USD Breaks Down From Bullish Formation- GBP/AUD in Focus](https://media.dailyfx.com/illustrations/2014/07/03/AUD-USD-Breaks-Down-From-Bullish-Formation--GBP-AUD-in-Focus_body_ScreenShot235.png)
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Price & Time: Dollar Dead Cat or Real Reversal?
Trade Setups in EUR/USD, USD/JPY, AUD/USD for ECB, NFPs
USDOLLAR Daily
![AUD/USD Breaks Down From Bullish Formation- GBP/AUD in Focus](https://media.dailyfx.com/illustrations/2014/07/03/AUD-USD-Breaks-Down-From-Bullish-Formation--GBP-AUD-in-Focus_body_Picture_1.png)
Chart - Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0
- Interim Resistance: 10,602 (38.2 retracement) to 10,615 (78.6 expansion)
- Interim Support: 10,354 to 10,375 (50.0 retracement)
Release | GMT | Expected | Actual |
Change in Non-Farm Payrolls (JUN) | 12:30 | 215K | 288K |
Unemployment Rate (JUN) | 12:30 | 6.3% | 3.1% |
Labor Force Participation Rate (JUN) | 12:30 | 62.8% | |
Change in Private Payrolls (JUN) | 12:30 | 215K | 262K |
Change in Manufacturing Payrolls (JUN) | 12:30 | 10K | 16K |
Two-Month Payroll Net Revision (JUN) | 12:30 | 29K | |
Change in Household Employment (JUN) | 12:30 | 407 | |
Underemployment Rate (JUN) | 12:30 | 12.1% | |
Average Hourly Earnings (MoM) (JUN) | 12:30 | 0.2% | 0.2% |
Average Hourly Earnings (YoY) (JUN) | 12:30 | 1.9% | 2.0% |
Average Weekly Hours (JUN) | 12:30 | 34.5 | 34.5 |
Trade Balance (MAY) | 12:30 | -$45.0B | -$44.4B |
Initial Jobless Claims (JUN 28) | 12:30 | 313K | 315K |
Continuing Claims (JUN 21) | 12:30 | 2560K | 2579K |
Markit Purchasing Manager Index Services (JUN F) | 13:45 | 61.0 | 61.0 |
Markit Purchasing Manager Index Composite (JUN F) | 13:45 | 61.0 | |
ISM Non-Manufacturing Composite (JUN) | 14:00 | 56.3 | 56.0 |
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--- Written by David Song, Currency Analyst
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