Talking Points
- AUDCHF testing key inflection point
- Scalp bias bullish above 8357/60
- Event risk on from Australia next week
AUDCHF Daily Chart
![AUDCHF Rebounds Off Key Support- Longs Favored Above 8360](https://media.dailyfx.com/illustrations/2014/06/26/Forex-AUDCHF-Rebounds-Off-Key-Support--Longs-Favored-Above-8360_body_Picture_2.png)
Chart Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0
Technical Outlook
- AUDCHF rebounds off key support 8357/60- Near-term bullish invalidation
- Topside resistance objectives at June TL resistance, 8479 & 8534/45
- Support break risks correction into 8276/93- broader bullish invalidation
- Daily RSI rebound ahead of 50- constructive
- Event Risk Ahead: RBA Interest Rate Decision on Tuesday
AUDCHF 30min Chart
![AUDCHF Rebounds Off Key Support- Longs Favored Above 8360](https://media.dailyfx.com/illustrations/2014/06/26/Forex-AUDCHF-Rebounds-Off-Key-Support--Longs-Favored-Above-8360_body_Picture_1.png)
Notes: The rebound off key support at the confluence of the 100% extension off the monthly high and the 61.8% retracement off the monthly low has been well received and keeps our directional bias weighted to the topside near-term. Note that the weekly opening range low is now serving as resistance and a move beyond this mark is needed to invalidate weekly downtrend.
Bottom line: We’ll favor buying dips while above 8357 targeting the monthly highs. Our scalp bias is invalidated with a break below this threshold with the broader outlook remaining weighted to the topside while above the June lows at 8276. Event risk for the pair mounts on July 1st with the RBA interest rate decision and could fuel added volatility in Aussie crosses. Follow the progress of this trade setup and more throughout the trading week with DailyFX on Demand.
* It’s extremely important to give added consideration regarding the timing of intra-day scalps with the opening ranges on a session & hourly basis offering further clarity on intra-day biases.
Key Threshold Grid
Entry/Exit Targets | Timeframe | Level | Technical Relevance |
Resistance Target 1 | 30min | 8418 | 50% Retracement / Weekly ORL |
Resistance Target 2 | 30min | 8432/38 | 61.8% Retracement / Sunday Low |
Bearish Invalidation | 30min | 8453/60 | 78.6% Retracement / Weekly ORH |
Break Target 1 | Daily / 30min | 8479 | June High / June 2004 Low |
Break Target 2 | Daily / 30min | 8534/45 | 1.618% Ext / 78.6% Retracement |
Break Target 3 | Daily | 8653 | November High Close |
Break Target 1 | Daily | 8755 | November High |
Support Target 1 | 30min | 8377/82 | 61.8% & 50% Retracement(s) |
Bullish Invalidation | Daily / 30min | 8353/60 | 61.8% Retrace(s) / 100% Ext / Weekly Low |
Break Target 1 | 30min | 8320 | 78.6% Retracement |
Break Target 2 | Daily / 30min | 8293 | 1.618% Extension |
Break Target 3 | Daily / 30min | 8276 | June Low |
Break Target 4 | Daily | 8237 | 200DMA |
Average True Range | Daily (20) | 58 | Profit Targets 15-17pips |
*ORH: Opening Range High
*ORL: Opening Range Low
Other Setups in Play Heading into NFPs:
- GBPJPY Testing Key Inflection Zone- Shorts at Risk Above 172.70
- GBPCAD Scalps Target Weekly Range- Bullish Bias at Risk Sub 1.8480
- GBPAUD Scalps Favor Buying Dips Post June Range Break
- GBPNZD Weekly Opening Range Play- 1.96 Resistance in Focus
- AUDJPY Long-bias at Risk Sub 96- BoJ / China Data On Tap
- EURAUD at Fresh 2014 Lows- Reversal Risk High Above 1.4420/40
- Breakout or Break Down? NZD/USD Eyes Critical Resistance Pre-NFPs
- USDCAD Risks Reversal Ahead of NFPs- 1.0950 Key Resistance
---Written by Michael Boutros, Currency Strategist with DailyFX
For updates on this scalp and more setups follow him on Twitter @MBForex
To contact Michael email mboutros@dailyfx.com or Click Here to be added to his email distribution list
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