CHICAGO, Illinois, March 6 (Reuters) - Exactly two years ago, Chicago wheat futures stamped all-time highs after top exporter Russia invaded fellow supplier Ukraine, immediately throwing almost 30% of global wheat exports into question.

But on Wednesday, CBOT wheat slipped to its lowest level since August 2020, joining the ranks with corn and soybeans, which last week also notched their lowest prices since late 2020.

In theory, global supply outlooks for wheat are not necessarily bearish, especially compared with those for corn and soybeans, though this wheat storyline clearly remains repetitive and non-threatening in traders’ eyes.

U.S. Department of Agriculture estimates suggest 2023-24 global wheat ending stocks will decline for a fourth consecutive season to eight-year lows. Eleven-year lows are on the docket when excluding serial grain stockpiler China from the mix.

Isolating major wheat exporters, stocks-to-use, a measure of supply versus demand, is seen at a three-year low of 14.8% in 2023-24, down from 15.9% in the prior season. The recent 10-year average is about 16.9%.

For corn and soybeans, global stocks-to-use is pegged at 23% and 21%, respectively, marking four- and five-year highs.

The latest prognosis for wheat exporters is not much different from what USDA had projected for 2021-22 back in March 2022, roughly two weeks after the Russian invasion. Predicted stocks-to-use of 14% at that time was down from 15% estimated for 2020-21 and scheduled to reach 14-year lows.

Instead, wheat exporter stocks-to-use in 2021-22 rose on the year to 15.4%, as skyrocketing prices likely choked off some demand in the second half of that year. Stocks-to-use rose again in the following year based on an unexpectedly solid Ukrainian export effort and a huge surge in Russian supplies.

This expanding trend is already happening for 2023-24, as the 14.8% stocks-to-use among major exporters is up from 13.5% predicted last September, for example.

EXPORT PRESSURE

Global wheat prices have been under pressure for months due to abundant supplies in top exporter Russia. Russian wheat shipments last month reached record volumes for February, and export prices have tumbled about 16% since Feb. 1.

Refinitiv data shows benchmark Russian wheat export prices this week slipped below $200 per metric ton ($5.44 per bushel) for the first time since August 2020, marking the lowest early-March price since 2017.

Ukraine’s program is also going well, and as of Wednesday, season-to-date wheat exports are up 6% from a year ago. USDA is looking for a 12% annual decline in Ukraine’s 2023-24 wheat shipments, so this could be up for revision on Friday in the agency’s monthly supply and demand report.

CBOT wheat’s settle on Wednesday of $5.31 per bushel is the most-active contract’s lowest for the date since 2020, when wheat closed around $5.16. Speculators were relatively bullish wheat in early 2020, opposite to today’s bearish views.

But funds’ current net short in wheat is nowhere near as extreme as the ones in corn and beans, which is sensible based on the broad global supply picture for each crop.

CBOT wheat has shed 15% so far in 2024, a very similar decline as the same period last year, though prices are about 24% lower than a year ago and nearly 60% off the early March 2022 spike. Karen Braun is a market analyst for Reuters. Views expressed above are her own.

(Writing by Karen Braun Editing by Matthew Lewis)