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| This week's gainers and losers |
| Gainers: First Citizens (+60%): The North Carolina bank will take over Silicon Valley Bank, which went bankrupt. The market has welcomed the deal as it knows that First Citizens has a strong track record of successful takeovers and restructurings of financial institutions since the 2008 crisis. Petrofac (+59%): In a wild speculative move, the stock of the oil and marine services company soared on Thursday on the news that it had won a huge contract with Hitachi from TenneT. The German-Dutch operator has awarded the duo six offshore wind farm projects, worth €13 billion in revenue over several years. Ocado (+22%): The British company has won a new legal victory against Norwegian group AutoStore in a patent case. The two have been arguing for years about logistics automation systems. Although this is bad news for AutoStore, "it should be noted that the warehouse automation market is largely untapped, i.e. there is enough free space for both players to grow in the medium and long term", says research firm AlphaValue. Alibaba (+19%): The Chinese group seduced the market by announcing a split into six entities, some of which will be listed. Investors see this as an opportunity to better value assets that were somewhat crushed by the conglomerate effect. This could become a trend for the Chinese behemoths, as JD.com also announced later this week that it would split its activities. Losers: Agilon (-18%): The investor day organised on March 30 by the American group specializing in services to care centres for the elderly did not convince investors. The share price fell by 12% on Thursday alone. Emis Group (-21%): The acquisition of the British company by UnitedHealth Group is facing regulatory hurdles. The UK competition watchdog announced that it would conduct a phase two investigation after rejecting remedies proposed by the buyer, which had put £1.24bn on the table. Gamestop (-6%): The video game retailer posted disappointing revenues, which it blamed on a lack of games. Generac Holdings (-5%): Generac Holdings, which specializes in the design, manufacture and marketing of primary and backup power generation solutions, saw its stock drops after BofA cut its recommendation to Underperform due to a downbeat outlook. |
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| Commodities |
Energy: Oil prices rose this week, with Brent crude up 5% and WTI up 7%, although prices stabilised on Friday. The rise followed Turkey's halt to oil imports from the autonomous Kurdistan region of Iraq, after an international court ruling in a years-long dispute between the two countries. After reaching a level just below USD 80, Brent crude oil paused to catch its breath. The week was less volatile and this is mainly due to the return of investor confidence, which has rekindled the appetite for risky assets. Attention now turns to the Opec+ meeting on Monday. Metals: Gold prices rose slightly as investors turned to safer assets in the face of the banking crisis. Spot gold rose 0.1% to USD 1,981.59 an ounce. Futures followed the same trend, reaching USD 1,982.00. Will gold continue to rise? Not sure, as rising interest rates make this zero yield asset less attractive, despite its safe haven status in times of economic uncertainty. Agricultural products: On Saturday, the UN announced that the international agreement on the export of Ukrainian grain would be extended. However, one of Russia's largest wheat exporters, Viterra, announced that it would cease trading in Russia, trailing most of its international competitors, in response to Cargill's suspension of grain exports from Russia. |
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| Macroeconomics |
| Atmosphere. A bit curious. Investors still do not believe that the Fed will keep its key rates high for long. Employment and consumer confidence figures in the US remain strong and the price surge seems to be easing. In Europe and China, the statistics also appear to be positive. However, central banks are maintaining a firm stance on the risks of inflationary drift, but the message does not really seem to be getting through. The blue sky scenario of the moment? The banking fire has been contained, inflation continues to fall and key interest rates are on the way down in the medium term. Currencies. There were no major moves in the foreign exchange market this week, except for the yen, which weakened. The return of investor risk appetite and the approach of the end of the fiscal year in Japan were cited as reasons for the decline. On Friday, it took JPY 132.83 to obtain USD 1. Meanwhile, waning concerns about the strength of the banking sector led to sell-offs in the dollar, which fell to 1.09 per EUR. "Investors remain bearish on the greenback against the euro, yen, Swiss franc and sterling," notes Roberto Mialich, FX strategist at Unicredit. Rates. At the end of the week, the latest inflation figures essentially showed that the game was not yet won. Indeed, the PCE Core index in the US came out in line at +4.60% for February, which is still quite far from the 2% target set by the Fed. In the Eurozone, inflation (CPI this time) fell sharply from 8.5% in February to +6.9% in March. However, excluding volatile items (including energy, alcohol, tobacco and food), prices continued to rise by +5.7%, leaving the door open for the ECB to continue raising rates. Logically, US and German 10 year yields rose above their respective key supports at 3.35% and 1.99% during the week. Cryptocurrencies. Bitcoin is up 1.5% this week and is now hovering near its 2023 highs, around $28,500 at the time of writing. The digital asset market leader is benefiting from the return of risk appetite in the markets and still has a significant positive correlation with the Nasdaq. Despite the US regulatory crackdown on the cryptocurrency industry in recent days, particularly towards Binance, bitcoin is proving particularly resilient. The development of the economic situation in the US remains the main cursor for the crypto asset market for the time being. Agenda. Next week, investors will be paying attention to the March employment figures in the United States, published on Friday. Before that, they will have seen the ISM manufacturing index (Monday) and the services index (Thursday). It will also be necessary to navigate between public holidays. The Chinese markets will close on Wednesday 4 April. The main European markets will be closed for Easter on Friday 7 April, as will London and New York. |
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| Things to read this week | ||||||
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*The weekly movements of indexes and stocks displayed on the dashboard are related to the period ranging from the open on Monday to the sending time of this newsletter on Friday. The weekly movements of commodities, precious metals and currencies displayed on the dashboard are related to a 7-day rolling period from Friday to Friday, until the sending time of this newsletter. These assets continue to quote on weekends. |
