Walgreens Boots Alliance : Válogatás a nemzetközi szervezetek újdonságaiból (2020.01.30-02.05.)

VÁLOGATÁS

az ECB, az ESRB, az EU, az EBA, az EIOPA, az

ESMA, az IMF, a BIS, az FSB, az OECD,

és az IOSCO dokumentumaiból

2 0 2 0 . J A N U Á R 3 0 - F E B R U Á R 5 .

MNB - Válogatás a nemzetközi pénzügyi és gazdasági intézmények dokumentumaiból

TARTALOMJEGYZÉK

1. MONETÁRIS POLITIKA, INFLÁCIÓ ...........................................................................................................................	3
2. PÉNZÜGYI STABILITÁS, PÉNZÜGYI PIACOK .............................................................................................................	3
3. MIKROPRUDENCIÁLIS FELÜGYELET ÉS SZABÁLYOZÁS ............................................................................................	5
4. FINTECH, KRIPTOVALUTÁK, MESTERSÉGES INTELLIGENCIA ....................................................................................	8
5. ZÖLD PÉNZÜGYEK, FENNTARTHATÓ FEJLŐDÉS.......................................................................................................	9
6. MAKROGAZDASÁG ..............................................................................................................................................	10
7. ÁLTALÁNOS GAZDASÁGPOLITIKA.........................................................................................................................	11
8. KÖLTSÉGVETÉSI POLITIKA, ADÓZÁS .....................................................................................................................	13
9. SZANÁLÁS ............................................................................................................................................................	15
10. STATISZTIKA.......................................................................................................................................................	15
11. PÉNZÜGYI ISMERETTERJESZTÉS, PÉNZÜGYI KULTÚRA ........................................................................................	16

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MNB - Válogatás a nemzetközi pénzügyi és gazdasági intézmények dokumentumaiból

1. MONETÁRIS POLITIKA, INFLÁCIÓ

Interview with Financial Times	ECB
https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/inter/date/2020/html/ecb.in200202~ee2f05eb63.en.html	Interview
Interview with Philip R. Lane, Member of the Executive Board of the ECB, conducted by Martin Arnold on
27 January, and published on 2 February 2020
Change and continuity	BIS
https://www.bis.org/review/r200204b.htm	Central Bankers'
Speech by Dr Jens Weidmann, President of the Deutsche Bundesbank and Chair of the Board of Directors	Speech
of the Bank for International Settlements, at Deutsche Börse's New Year's reception, Eschborn,
3 February 2020
Monetary policy and financial vulnerabilities	BIS
https://www.bis.org/review/r200130j.htm	Central Bankers'
Remarks by Mr Paul Beaudry, Deputy Governor of the Bank of Canada, at Laval University, Quebec City,	Speech
Quebec, 30 January 2020
Consolidated financial statement of the Eurosystem, 04/02/2020	ECB
https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/pr/wfs/2020/html/ecb.fst200204.en.html	Press Release
Commentary:
https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/pr/wfs/2020/html/ecb.fs200204.en.html
ECB's subscribed capital to remain steady after Bank of England leaves the European System of Central	ECB
Banks, 31/01/2020	Press Release
https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/pr/date/2020/html/ecb.pr200130_2~59d6ffffe1.en.html
Estimating the optimal inflation target from trends in relative prices, 03/02/2020	ECB
https://www.ecb.europa.eu/pub/pdf/scpwps/ecb.wp2370~54ad76d487.en.pdf?387ed5e771ad03a5d58	Working Paper
4d86e610c179e
Using the official micro price data underlying the U.K. consumer price index, a new stylized fact is
documented for the life-cycle behavior of consumer prices: relative to a narrowly defined set of competing
products, the price of individual products tends to fall over the product lifetime. The authors show that
this data feature has important implications for the optimal inflation target. Constructing a sticky-price
model featuring a product life cycle and heterogeneous relativeprice trends, we derive closed-form
expressions for the optimal inflation target under Calvo and menu-cost frictions. They show how the
optimal target can be estimated from the observed trends in relative prices.
Keywords: optimal inflation, micro price data, U.K. inflation target.

2. PÉNZÜGYI STABILITÁS, PÉNZÜGYI PIACOK

The ESM: euro area financial stability in safe hands	EU
https://www.esm.europa.eu/speeches-and-presentations/esm-euro-area-financial-stability-safe-hands-	Speech
speech-rolf-strauch
Speech by Rolf Strauch, ESM Chief Economist, Lecture at Erasmus School of Economics, Rotterdam, 31
January 2020

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MNB - Válogatás a nemzetközi pénzügyi és gazdasági intézmények dokumentumaiból

Risks and resilience in the financial system - a German perspective	BIS
https://www.bis.org/review/r200203c.htm	Central Bankers'
Speech by Prof Claudia Buch, Vice-President of the Deutsche Bundesbank, at the Institute of International	Speech
and European Affairs (IIEA), Dublin, 30 January 2020
The Bulgarian banking sector and the challenges in 2020	BIS
https://www.bis.org/review/r200130c.htm	Central Bankers'
Publication by Mr Dimitar Radev, Governor of the Bulgarian National Bank, in the Quarterly Bulletin of the	Speech
Association of Banks in Bulgaria, issue 60, January 2020
ECB welcomes ratification of agreement on orderly UK withdrawal from European Union, 30/01/2020	ECB
https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/pr/date/2020/html/ecb.pr200130_1~0e0eb9bef4.en.html	Press Release
Countries in the IMF Financial Spotlight in 2020, 30/01/2020	IMF
https://blogs.imf.org/2020/01/30/countries-in-the-imf-financial-spotlight-in-2020/	Blog Post
FSB takes steps to enhance the effectiveness of its Regional Consultative Groups, 04/02/2020	FSB
https://www.fsb.org/2020/02/fsb-takes-steps-to-enhance-the-effectiveness-of-its-regional-consultative-	Press Release
groups/
Risk report on less significant institutions, 30/01/2020	ECB
https://www.bankingsupervision.europa.eu/ecb/pub/html/ssm.lsiriskreport202001~48ecda4549.en.htm	Publication
l#toc1
The risk report on less significant institutions (LSIs) is an annual assessment of the conditions in the LSI
sector, conducted collaboratively by the European Central Bank (ECB) and the national competent
authorities (NCAs). It combines a comprehensive quantitative analysis of the current LSI risk profile with
forward-looking considerations of the main risks and vulnerabilities facing LSIs. The report draws on both
the day-to-day supervisory work done by NCAs, and the ECB's oversight activities. Furthermore, the report
incorporates findings from dialogues with LSIs and their banking associations.
Austria: Financial Stability Assessment, 03/02/2020	IMF
https://www.imf.org/en/Publications/CR/Issues/2020/01/31/Austria-Financial-Stability-Assessment-	Country Report
Press-Release-Staff-Report-and-Statement-by-the-49010
Growth in Austria has been strong, but the outlook has moderated, and financial vulnerabilities are
building up. Structural vulnerabilities include a large and tiered banking system, complex ownership
structures and financial interlinkages, and a focus on Central, Eastern, and South Eastern Europe (CESEE)
markets. Banks are exposed to cyclical risks from volatility in the CESEE, and rising vulnerabilities in the
housing market. The solvency coverage ratio of insurance firms is high, but the sector suffers from low
growth, low interest rates, and future profitability risk.
Related press release:
https://www.imf.org/en/News/Articles/2020/01/31/pr2027-austria-imf-executive-board-concludes-
2019-financial-system-stability-assessment
Corporate investment and the exchange rate: The financial channel, 04/02/2020	BIS
https://www.bis.org/publ/work839.htm	Working Paper
Using firm-level data for 18 major global economies, the authors find that the exchange rate affects
corporate investment through a financial channel: exchange rate depreciation dampens corporate
investment through firm leverage and FX debt. These findings are consistent with the predictions of a
stylised model of credit risk in which exchange rates can affect investment through FX debt or borrowing
in local currency from foreign lenders.

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MNB - Válogatás a nemzetközi pénzügyi és gazdasági intézmények dokumentumaiból

Keywords: corporate investment, emerging markets, exchange rates, financial channel, financial
constraints.
OECD Capital Market Review of Italy 2020, 31/01/2020	OECD
http://www.oecd.org/corporate/ca/OECD-Capital-Market-Review-Italy.pdf	Publication
	+
Italy has in recent years undertaken important structural reforms to improve the financial health of the	Speech
corporate sector and to strengthen capital markets as a complementary source for corporate financing.	+
These include the individual saving plans (PIR), the mini-bond market framework and the ELITE programme	Press Release
of the Borsa Italiana that aims at helping companies to access capital and the networks needed to scale
up. However, the Italian capital market is still less developed than many other advanced economies.
Consequently, there remains an important potential to further improve the usefulness of capital markets
to Italian businesses and citizens. This will require promoting a successful outcome of the recent initiatives
as well as addressing any remaining impediments.
Related speech:
Remarks by Ángel Gurría, OECD Secretary-General on 31 January 2020, in Rome, Italy
http://www.oecd.org/about/secretary-general/oecd-capital-market-review-of-italy-2020-rome-january-
2020.htm
Related press release:
http://www.oecd.org/corporate/oecd-capital-market-review-italy.htm

3. MIKROPRUDENCIÁLIS FELÜGYELET ÉS SZABÁLYOZÁS

The road towards a truly European single market	ECB
https://www.bankingsupervision.europa.eu/press/speeches/date/2020/html/ssm.sp200130~f5b1d4375	Speech
6.en.html
Speech by Andrea Enria, Chair of the Supervisory Board of the ECB, at the 5th SSM & EBF Boardroom
Dialogue, Frankfurt am Main, 30 January 2020
Basel III: the implementation imperative	BIS
https://www.bis.org/speeches/sp200130.htm	Central Bankers'
Keynote address by Pablo Hernández de Cos, Chair of the Basel Committee on Banking Supervision and	Speech
Governor of the Bank of Spain, at the 15th BCBS-FSIHigh-level Meeting for Africa on Strengthening
financial sector supervision and current regulatory priorities, Cape Town, 30 January 2020.
The Value of the LEI (Legal Entity Identifier) for Identification in Digital Processes	FSB
https://www.fsb.org/wp-content/uploads/S040220.pdf	Speech
Remarks by FSB Vice Chair Klaas Knot at the GLEIF meet the market event in Amsterdam, 4 February 2020
ECB launches public consultation on its guide to assess how banks calculate counterparty credit risk,	ECB/SSM
05/02/2020	Press Release
https://www.bankingsupervision.europa.eu/press/pr/date/2020/html/ssm.pr200205~f159b99a87.en.ht
ml
ECB to stress test 35 euro area banks as part of the 2020 EU-wide stress test led by EBA, 31/01/2020	ECB
https://www.bankingsupervision.europa.eu/press/pr/date/2020/html/ssm.pr200131~66073e3632.en.ht	Press Release
ml

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MNB - Válogatás a nemzetközi pénzügyi és gazdasági intézmények dokumentumaiból

EBA acts to improve AML/CFT supervision in Europe, 05/02/2020	EBA
https://eba.europa.eu/eba-acts-improve-amlcft-supervision-europe	Press Release
EBA consults on revised guidelines on money laundering and terrorist financing risk factors, 05/02/2020	EBA
https://eba.europa.eu/eba-consults-revised-guidelines-money-laundering-and-terrorist-financing-risk-	Press Release
factors
EBA issues updated list of validation rules and related taxonomy to improve data quality, 04/02/2020	EBA
https://eba.europa.eu/eba-issues-updated-list-validation-rules-and-related-taxonomy-improve-data-	Press Release
quality
EBA calls for measures to ensure a more balanced composition of management bodies in institutions,	EBA
03/02/2020	Press Release
https://eba.europa.eu/eba-calls-measures-ensure-more-balanced-composition-management-bodies-
institutions
EBA releases its annual assessment of the consistency of internal model outcomes, 31/01/2020	EBA
https://eba.europa.eu/eba-releases-its-annual-assessment-consistency-internal-model-outcomes	Press Release
EBA launches 2020 EU-wide stress test exercise, 31/01/2020	EBA
https://eba.europa.eu/eba-launches-2020-eu-wide-stress-test-exercise	Press Release
Monthly update of the symmetric adjustment of the equity capital charge for Solvency II - end-January	EIOPA
2020, 05/02/2020	Press Release
https://www.eiopa.europa.eu/content/monthly-update-symmetric-adjustment-equity-capital-charge-
solvency-ii---end-january-2020
Monthly technical information for Solvency II Relevant Risk Free Interest Rate Term Structures - end-	EIOPA
January 2020, 05/02/2020	Press Release
https://www.eiopa.europa.eu/content/monthly-technical-information-solvency-ii-relevant-risk-free-
interest-rate-term-structures-1
EIOPA consults on Review of technical implementation means for the package on Solvency 2 Supervisory	EIOPA
Reporting and Public Disclosure, 05/02/2020	Press Release
https://www.eiopa.europa.eu/content/eiopa-consults-review-technical-implementation-means-
package-solvency-2-supervisory
ESMA launches a Common Supervisory Action with NCAs on MiFID II suitability rules, 05/02/2020	ESMA
https://www.esma.europa.eu/press-news/esma-news/esma-launches-common-supervisory-action-	Press Release
ncas-mifid-ii-suitability-rules
ESMA proposes to amend the technical standards in view of the postponing of the entry into force of	ESMA
the CSDR settlement discipline, 05/02/2020	Press Release
https://www.esma.europa.eu/press-news/esma-news/esma-proposes-amend-technical-standards-in-
view-postponing-entry-force-csdr
ESMA amends guidelines to further harmonise the enforcement of financial information by national	ESMA
regulators, 04/02/2020	Press Release
https://www.esma.europa.eu/press-news/esma-news/esma-amends-guidelines-further-harmonise-
enforcement-financial-information
ESMA consults on MiFIR transparency regime for equity instruments, 04/02/2020	ESMA
https://www.esma.europa.eu/press-news/esma-news/esma-consults-mifir-transparency-regime-equity-	Press Release
instruments

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MNB - Válogatás a nemzetközi pénzügyi és gazdasági intézmények dokumentumaiból

ESMA advises the European Commission on Product Intervention, 04/02/2020	ESMA
https://www.esma.europa.eu/press-news/esma-news/esma-advises-european-commission-product-	Press Release
intervention
ESMA consults on MiFIR transparency regime for systematic internalisers, 03/02/2020	ESMA
https://www.esma.europa.eu/press-news/esma-news/esma-consults-mifir-transparency-regime-	Press Release
systematic-internalisers
MiFID II: ESMA makes new bond liquidity data available, 31/01/2020	ESMA
https://www.esma.europa.eu/press-news/esma-news/mifid-ii-esma-makes-new-bond-liquidity-data-	Press Release
available-6
MiFID II: ESMA publishes data for the systematic internaliser calculations for equity, equity-like	ESMA
instruments and bonds, 31/01/2020	Press Release
https://www.esma.europa.eu/press-news/esma-news/mifid-ii-esma-publishes-data-systematic-
internaliser-calculations-equity-equi-5
ESMA issues opinion on accepted market practice on liquidity contracts by CONSOB, 31/01/2020	ESMA
https://www.esma.europa.eu/press-news/esma-news/esma-issues-opinion-accepted-market-practice-	Press Release
liquidity-contracts-consob
ESMA consults on the new MiFIR and MiFID II regimes for third-country firms, 31/01/2020	ESMA
https://www.esma.europa.eu/press-news/esma-news/esma-consults-new-mifir-and-mifid-ii-regimes-	Press Release
third-country-firms
ESMA: update on governance and reporting obligations following the UK's withdrawal from the	ESMA
European Union, 31/01/2020	Press Release
https://www.esma.europa.eu/press-news/esma-news/esma-update-governance-and-reporting-
obligations-following-uk%E2%80%99s-withdrawal
ESMA launches a Common Supervisory Action with NCAs on UCITS liquidity risk management,	ESMA
30/01/2020	Press Release
https://www.esma.europa.eu/press-news/esma-news/esma-launches-common-supervisory-action-
ncas-ucits-liquidity-risk-management
ESMA appoints chairs to its Standing Committees, 30/01/2020	ESMA
https://www.esma.europa.eu/press-news/esma-news/esma-appoints-chairs-its-standing-committees	Press Release
IOSCO publishes annual work program, 30/01/2020	IOSCO
https://www.iosco.org/news/pdf/IOSCONEWS555.pdf	Press Release
Correspondence with ISDA on pre-cessation triggers: FCA responds to ISDA letter on pre-cessation	FSB
triggers for LIBOR, 30/01/2020	Letter
https://www.fsb.org/wp-content/uploads/P300120.pdf
List of supervised entities (as of 1 January 2020), 05/02/2020	ECB/SSM
https://www.bankingsupervision.europa.eu/ecb/pub/pdf/ssm.listofsupervisedentities202002.en.pdf?f7c	Publication
340902f226b2aa7eebde1760432c6
Adverse scenario for the EBA 2020 EU-wide banking sector stress test, 31/01/2020	ESRB
https://www.esrb.europa.eu/mppa/stress/shared/pdf/esrb.stress_test200131~09dbe748d4.en.pdf?d46	Publication
1d78898770edd35129a6eb6c09d5c
Letter to Mr José Manuel Campa:
https://www.esrb.europa.eu/mppa/stress/shared/pdf/esrb.stress_test200131_letter~336c38cb55.en.pdf

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MNB - Válogatás a nemzetközi pénzügyi és gazdasági intézmények dokumentumaiból

Stress Testing at the IMF, 05/02/2020	IMF
https://www.imf.org/en/Publications/Departmental-Papers-Policy-Papers/Issues/2020/01/31/Stress-	Departmental
Testing-at-the-IMF-48825	Paper
The plan of this paper is as follows: After a brief section on the evolution of stress tests at the IMF, the
paper presents the key steps of an IMF staff stress test. They are followed by a discussion on how IMF staff
uses stress tests results for policy advice. The paper concludes by identifying remaining challenges to make
stress tests more useful for the monitoring of financial stability and an overview of IMF staff work program
in that direction.
Convergence in the prudential regulation of banks - what is missing?, 04/02/2020	BIS
https://www.bis.org/fsi/publ/insights24.htm	Publication
Regulatory-driven market fragmentation poses challenges for the proper functioning of the global
financial system. Unwarranted differences in prudential requirements may distort competition and
discourage banks from undertaking cross-border activities. This could reduce the efficiency of the financial
system, dampen international capital flows and impede global risk-sharing. This paper identifies three
main sources of regulatory fragmentation in the banking sector, which can lead to different prudential
outcomes across jurisdictions. These include heterogeneous practices in the measurement of assets, in
particular loans and other assets that are heavily assumption-dependent.
OECD Global Insurance Market Trends 2019, 31/01/2020	OECD
http://www.oecd.org/daf/fin/insurance/Global-Insurance-Market-Trends-2019.pdf	Publication
	+
The OECD has collected and analysed data on insurance such as the number of insurance companies and	Press Release
employees, insurance premiums and investments by insurance companies dating back to the early 1980s.
Over time, the framework of this exercise has expanded and now includes key balance sheet and income
statement items for the direct insurance and reinsurance sectors. This monitoring report is compiled using
data from the OECD Global Insurance Statistics (GIS) database. The geographical reach of the GIS database
is constantly expanding and now covers 62 countries.
Related press release:
http://www.oecd.org/finance/globalinsurancemarkettrends.htm

4. FINTECH, KRIPTOVALUTÁK, MESTERSÉGES INTELLIGENCIA

The digitalization of payments and currency - some issues for consideration	BIS
https://www.bis.org/review/r200205j.htm	Central Bankers'
Speech by Ms Lael Brainard, Member of the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System, at the	Speech
Symposium on the Future of Payments, Stanford, California, 5 February 2020
The economic forces driving fintech adoption across countries, 04/02/2020	BIS
https://www.bis.org/publ/work838.htm	Working Paper
Fintech is being adopted across markets worldwide - but not evenly. Why not? This paper reviews the
evidence. In some economies, especially in the developing world, adoption is being driven by an unmet
demand for financial services. Fintech promises to deliver greater financial inclusion. In other economies,
adoption can be related to the high cost of traditional finance, a supportive regulatory environment, and
other macroeconomic factors. Finally, demographics play an important role, as younger cohorts are more
likely to trust and adopt fintech services.
Keywords: fintech, digital innovation, financial inclusion, financial regulation.

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MNB - Válogatás a nemzetközi pénzügyi és gazdasági intézmények dokumentumaiból

Policy responses to fintech: a cross-country overview, 30/01/2020	BIS
https://www.bis.org/fsi/publ/insights23.pdf	Publication
Technological innovations in financial services (fintech) are increasingly transforming the way financial
services are provided. Based on survey responses from around 30 jurisdictions, this paper provides a cross-
country overview of policy responses to fintech developments. In addition, building on the work by global
standard-setting bodies and other international organisations, the paper proposes a conceptual
framework through which to analyse policy responses to fintech, referred to as the "fintech tree".
Keywords: fintech, regulation, digital banking, crowdfunding, fintech credit, robo-advice,e-money, digital
payments, insurtech, cryptoassets, cloud, biometrics, distributed ledger technology, machine learning,
artificial intelligence, innovation facilitators.
Technology and the future of work in emerging economies - What is different, 30/01/2020	OECD
https://www.oecd-ilibrary.org/docserver/55354f8f-	Working Paper
en.pdf?expires=1580976304&id=id&accname=guest&checksum=0A21E88D0E86D86053A6AC182C91DC85
Technological developments are likely to bring many new opportunities, which may be even larger in
emerging economies and may allow them to "leapfrog" certain stages of development. Notwithstanding
these opportunities, emerging economies face significant challenges associated with rapid technological
progress. Many of these challenges are the same as in advanced economies, but differences in starting
conditions may result in a greater threat for the emerging world. This study explores the benefits and risks
brought by this new technological wave from the perspective of thirteen key emerging economies:
Argentina, Brazil, Colombia, Costa Rica, Chile, China, India, Indonesia, Mexico, Russia, Saudi Arabia, South
Africa and Turkey.

5. ZÖLD PÉNZÜGYEK, FENNTARTHATÓ FEJLŐDÉS

Assessing Climate-Change Risk by Stress Testing for Financial Resilience, 05/02/2020	IMF
https://blogs.imf.org/2020/02/05/assessing-climate-change-risk-by-stress-testing-for-financial-	Blog Post
resilience/
Waste Woes in the World, 31/01/2020	IMF
https://blogs.imf.org/2020/01/31/waste-woes-in-the-world/	Blog Post
Carbon tax, emissions reduction and employment: Some evidence from France, 04/02/2020	OECD
https://oecdecoscope.blog/2020/02/04/carbon-tax-emissions-reduction-and-employment-some-	Press Release
evidence-from-france/
Strategic Policies for Sustainable Infrastructure, 31/01/2020	OECD
http://www.oecd.org/finance/sustainable-infrastructure.htm	Press Release
The joint effects of energy prices and carbon taxes on environmental and economic performance:	OECD
Evidence from the French manufacturing sector, 04/02/2020	Working Paper
https://www.oecd-ilibrary.org/docserver/b84b1b7d-
en.pdf?expires=1580977392&id=id&accname=guest&checksum=0DFBC702D30029C4770418F5783D94B4
The paper estimates the effect of energy prices and carbon taxation on firms' environmental and economic
performance. The analysis uses data on 8 000 firms that are representative of the French manufacturing
sector and observed during 2001-2016. This paper also measures the causal impact of the carbon tax over
the period 2014-2018 and simulates the effect of further increasing the carbon tax rate from €45 to €86
per tonne of CO2.

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6. MAKROGAZDASÁG

Forecast performance in the ECB SPF: ability or chance, 04/02/2020	ECB
https://www.ecb.europa.eu/pub/pdf/scpwps/ecb.wp2371~4edce8ed72.en.pdf?cd8f1ebfee28d30cca20a	Working Paper
e6d4ecc6aee
In this paper, we consider whether differences in the forecast performance of ECB SPF respondents reflect
ability or chance. Although differences in performance metrics sometimes appear substantial, it is
challenging to determine whether they reflect ex ante skill or other factors impacting ex post sampling
variation such as the nature of economic shocks that materialised or simply which rounds participants
responded in. We apply and adapt an approach developed by D'Agostino et al. (2012) who used US SPF
data. Our results, at a first pass, suggest that there would appear to be evidence of good/bad forecasters.
However once we control for the autocorrelation that is caused by the overlapping rolling horizons, we
find, like D'Agostino et al. (2012), that the best forecasters are not statistically significantly better than
others.
Keywords: forecasting, performance, bootstrap.
Pensions and household savings: cross-country heterogeneity in Europe, 04/02/2020	ECB
https://www.ecb.europa.eu/pub/pdf/scpwps/ecb.wp2372~2565732234.en.pdf?47af863d68ddc6ff0d94	Publication
0f1d4b92177e
We address the question of whether the heterogeneity in savings is partly due to differences in pension
wealth across individuals and across countries, using a European harmonised wealth survey (HFCS)
combined with estimates of pension wealth (OECD). First, we find significant displacement effects of
mandatory pension wealth on non-pension financial wealth at the mean, and a statistically significant
crowd-out estimate on the probability of owning real estate property. Second, there is heterogeneity in
the mean savings offset depending on age, risk attitudes and country. Third, the offset follows different
patterns along the non-pension wealth distribution across countries.
Keywords: wealth, social security, pensions, life cycle
Price dividend ratio and long-run stock returns: a score driven state space model, 03/02/2020	ECB
https://www.ecb.europa.eu/pub/pdf/scpwps/ecb.wp2369~7afcf6a5c4.en.pdf?504e16d1f541c4a862342	Working Paper
982e2e82fae
In this paper a general framework is develpoed to analyze state space models with timevarying system
matrices where time variation is driven by the score of the conditional likelihood. The authors derive a
new filter that allows for the simultaneous estimation of the state vector and of the time-varying
parameters. This method is used to study the timevarying relationship between the price dividend ratio,
expected stock returns and expected dividend growth in the US since 1880. They found a significant
increase in the long-run equilibrium value of the price dividend ratio over time, associated with a fall in
the longrun expected rate of return on stocks. The latter can be attributed mainly to a decrease in the
natural rate of interest, as the long-run risk premium has only slightly fallen.
Keywords: state space models, time-varying parameters, score-driven models, equity premium, present-
value models.
Strategic interactions and price dynamics in the global oil market, 30/01/2020	ECB
https://www.ecb.europa.eu/pub/pdf/scpwps/ecb.wp2368~bcb977be95.en.pdf?45aeeedfbefb0f3d316b	Working Paper
22732b9bc688
In a simplified theoretical framework the strategic interactions are modelled between OPEC and non-OPEC
producers and the implications for the global oil market. Depending on market conditions, OPEC may find
it optimal to act either as a monopolist on the residual demand curve, to move supply in-tandem with

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non-OPEC, or to offset changes in non-OPEC supply. The authors evaluate the implications of the model through a Structural Vector Auto Regression (VAR) that separates non-OPEC and OPEC production and allows OPEC to respond to supply increases in non-OPEC countries.

Keywords: OPEC, shale, oil, VAR.

7. ÁLTALÁNOS GAZDASÁGPOLITIKA

Remarks on the occasion of receiving the Grand Prix de l'Économie 2019 from Les Echos	ECB
https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/key/date/2020/html/ecb.sp200205_1~cc8a8787f6.en.html	Speech
Speech by Christine Lagarde, President of the ECB, at the "Grand Prix de l'Économie des Echos pour
l'année 2019", Paris 5 February 2020
The future of the euro	ECB
https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/key/date/2020/html/ecb.sp200205~56644596b4.en.pdf?0b93c6caf7	Presentation
17f1af5cf05beb97f08e19
Presentation by Philip R. Lane, Member of the Executive Board of the ECB, at "Berliner Gespräch zum
Finanzplatz Frankfurt" organised by Hessische Landesvertretung in Berlin, 5 February 2020
Interview with ERT TV (Hellenic Broadcasting Corporation)	ECB
https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/inter/date/2020/html/ecb.in200203~8478b7e508.en.html	Interview
Interview with Luis de Guindos, Vice-President of the ECB, conducted by Rallou Alexopoulou on 3 February
2020 and broadcast (in part) on 3 February 2020
Opening Remarks for Workshop on Fostering Diversification	IMF
https://www.imf.org/en/News/Articles/2020/02/06/sp020620-workshop-on-fostering-diversification	Speech
Speeach by Deputy Managing Director Tao Zhang in Kasane, Botswana on 6 February 2020
New Priorities for the Global Economy	IMF
https://www.imf.org/en/News/Articles/2020/02/05/sp-200205-kristalina-georgieva-new-priorities-for-	Speech
the-global-economy
Speech by Kristalina Georgieva, IMF Managing Director, Workshop on New Forms of Solidarity, Vatican
City, 5 February 2020
European and Greek economic developments and prospects	BIS
https://www.bis.org/review/r200204e.htm	Central Bankers'
Speech by Mr Yannis Stournaras, Governor of the Bank of Greece, at the Foundation for Economic &	Speech
Industrial Research, Konrad Adenauer Stiftung (KAS) in Greece & Cyprus, Athens, 3 February 2020
Multilateralism and globalisation reforms	BIS
https://www.bis.org/review/r200130a.htm	Central Bankers'
Presentation by Mr Pablo Hernández de Cos, Governor of the Bank of Spain and Chair of the Basel	Speech
Committee on Banking Supervision, of the book "Excesos: Amenazas a la prosperidad global", by Professor
Emilio Ontiveros, Madrid, 28 January 2020
"A new dawn for Europe", 31/01/2020	EU
https://www.consilium.europa.eu/en/press/press-releases/2020/01/31/a-new-dawn-for-europe-op-ed-	Article
article-by-presidents-charles-michel-david-sassoli-and-ursula-von-der-leyen/
On the last day of the United Kingdom's membership of the EU, European Council President Charles
Michel, European Parliament President David Sassoli and European Commission President Ursula von der
Leyen published an article in several European media.

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Statement by IMF Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva on Argentina, 04/02/2020	IMF
https://www.imf.org/en/News/Articles/2020/02/04/pr2034-statement-by-imf-managing-director-	Statement
kristalina-georgieva-on-argentina
ECB Economic Bulletin, 06/02/2020	ECB
https://www.ecb.europa.eu/pub/economic-bulletin/html/eb202001.en.html	Publication
Contents:
•	External environment
•	Financial developments
•	Economic activity
•	Prices and costs
•	Money and credit
Boxes:
• Tracking global economic uncertainty: implications for global investment and trade
• US yield curve inversion and financial market signals of recession
• Breaking the "chain effect" of tariffs - foreign trade zones in the time of protectionism
• Integration of non-euro area central and eastern European EU countries in global value chains,
	export dynamics, and business cycle synchronisation with the euro area
• Bond market liquidity and swap market efficiency - what role does the repo market play?
• Business outlook surveys as indicators of euro area real business investment
Articles:
• Household wealth and consumption in the euro area
• Assessing bank lending to corporates in the euro area since 2014
Integration of non-euro area central and eastern European EU countries in global value chains, export	ECB
dynamics, and business cycle synchronisation with the euro area, 03/02/2020	Working Paper
https://www.ecb.europa.eu/pub/economic-
bulletin/focus/2020/html/ecb.ebbox202001_04~6994e4179c.en.html
This box reviews developments in the six non-euro area central and eastern European EU countries
(Bulgaria, the Czech Republic, Croatia, Hungary, Poland and Romania) with respect to trade integration
and economic synchronisation with the euro area and investigates the potential exposure of their export
dynamics to changing external conditions.
Productivity Growth and Value Chains in Four European Countries, 31/01/2020	IMF
https://www.imf.org/en/Publications/WP/Issues/2020/01/31/Productivity-Growth-and-Value-Chains-in-	Working Paper
Four-European-Countries-48981
Advanced economies have been witnessing a pronounced slowdown of productivity growth since the
global financial crisis that is accompanied in recent years by a withdrawal from trade integration processes.
We study the determinants of productivity slowdown over the past two decades in four closely integrated
European countries, Austria, Denmark, Germany and the Netherlands, based on firm-level data.
Participation in global value chains appears to have affected productivity positively, including through its
effect on TFP when facilitated by higher investment in intangible assets, a proxy for firm innovation. Other
contributors to productivity growth in firms are workforce aging, access to finance, and skills mismatches.
Keywords: productivity, firms, GVC.
The Rise of Services Trade Restrictions, 04/02/2020	OECD
https://issuu.com/oecd.publishing/docs/oecd-stri-policy-trends-up-to-2020?fr=sNmVlNzYxOTI3Mw	Publication
For generations, trade barriers were measured by tariffs, quotas and voluntary export restraints. The
policy equivalents of a clumsy and random blaster. That was before new technologies reduced transaction
costs. Tradable services gave rise to more integrated business models for a more modern age. Today,
services generate more than two-thirds of world gross domestic product, employ the most workers, and
create most new jobs globally.

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Firming up the capital base of the Austrian business sector - Consolidating Austria's business sector	OECD
strengths and its social role in the face of new challenges, 03/02/2020	Working Paper
https://www.oecd-ilibrary.org/docserver/d132d949-
en.pdf?expires=1580978093&id=id&accname=guest&checksum=A12CCDE0F124DE025F9FDAAB218F145E
While small- and medium sized firms in Austria are generally more productive, export more, and engage
more in higher technology activities than in comparable countries, they need to adapt better to the
knowledge economy to maintain their relative performance levels. The capital structure of Austrian SMEs
are biased towards debt-financing and stronger equity, growth and venture capital markets would provide
them with further resources for their long-term knowledge based investments.
Keywords: capital structure of SMEs, skill shortages, allowance for corporate equity, debt-financing,
ownership transmissions.

8. KÖLTSÉGVETÉSI POLITIKA, ADÓZÁS

Future of Fiscal Rules in the Euro Area	IMF
https://www.imf.org/en/News/Articles/2020/01/28/sp012820-vitor-gaspar-fiscal-rules-in-europe	Speech
Keynote address by Vitor Gaspar, Director of Fiscal Affairs Department at the Workshop on "Fiscal Rules
in Europe: Design and Enforcement" (DG ECFIN) in Brussels, Belgium on 28 January 2020
The review of EU economic governance and launches debate on its future, 05/02/2020	EU
https://ec.europa.eu/info/sites/info/files/economy-finance/com_2020_55_en.pdf	Publications
https://ec.europa.eu/info/sites/info/files/economy-finance/swd_2020_210_en.pdf	+
	Press Release
The Commission has presented a review of the effectiveness of the economic surveillance framework and	+
launches a public debate on its future.	Speech
Related press release:
https://ec.europa.eu/commission/presscorner/detail/en/IP_20_170
Related speeches:
Remarks by Executive Vice-PresidentValdis Dombrovskis at the press conference on the review of EU
economic governance and the launch of a debate on its future
https://ec.europa.eu/commission/presscorner/detail/en/SPEECH_20_204
Remarks by Commissioner Paolo Gentiloni at the press conference on the review of EU economic
governance and the launch of a debate on its future
https://ec.europa.eu/commission/presscorner/detail/en/SPEECH_20_205
Q&A:
https://ec.europa.eu/commission/presscorner/detail/en/QANDA_20_171
Factsheets:
https://ec.europa.eu/info/sites/info/files/economy-
finance/economic_governance_review_factsheet_01_en.pdf
https://ec.europa.eu/info/sites/info/files/economy-
finance/economic_governance_review_factsheet_02_en.pdf

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How Big are Fiscal Multipliers in Latin America?, 31/01/2020	IMF
https://www.imf.org/en/Publications/WP/Issues/2020/01/31/How-Big-are-Fiscal-Multipliers-in-Latin-	Working Paper
America-48959
This paper uses the strategy and data of Blanchard and Perotti (BP) to identify fiscal shocks and estimate
fiscal multipliers for the United States. With these results, it computes the cumulative multiplier of Ramey
and Zubairy (2018), now common in the literature. It finds that, contrary to the peak and through
multipliers reported by BP, the cumulative tax multiplier is much larger than the cumulative spending one.
Hence, the conclusions depend on the definition of multiplier. This methodology is also used to estimate
the effects of fiscal shocks on economic activity in eight Latin American countries.
Keywords: macroeconomic policy, stabilization, fiscal policy, multipliers.
Effectiveness and Equity in Social Spending - The Case of Spain, 30/01/2020	IMF
https://www.imf.org/en/Publications/WP/Issues/2020/01/30/Effectiveness-and-Equity-in-Social-	Working Paper
Spending-The-Case-of-Spain-48936
Spain is experiencing sustained economic and social disparities in several areas. Social spending policies
have a heightened responsibility to respond but are challenged by high public debt and pressures from an
aging society. This study takes stock of the level and effectiveness of public social expenditure from a
cross-country and macroeconomic view, complementing recent targeted spending reviews. The results
suggest that social protection spending should aim to improve redistribution through better targeting the
most vulnerable while more effective education and active labor market policies should aim to create
more equal opportunities and income prospects.
Keywords: social protection expenditure, redistribution, spending efficiency, Spain.
Productivity and finance: the intangible assets channel - a firm level analysis, 02/02/2020	OECD
https://www.oecd-ilibrary.org/docserver/d13a21b0-	Working Paper
en.pdf?expires=1580978231&id=id&accname=guest&checksum=BE97CE8031CB737452B0D063D6849192
Using a cross-country firm level panel dataset from 1995 to 2015, this paper revisits the finance-
productivity nexus by looking at the role of intangible assets. It argues that due to their specific
characteristics, such as valuation uncertainty and lower pledgeability, financing the purchase of intangible
assets is more difficult than that of tangible assets. As a result, financial frictions are expected to be more
binding for productivity growth in sectors where intangibles have become a pivotal component in firms
production function. The analysis relies on a panel fixed effects econometric approach, several indices to
capture financial frictions at the firm level and a new measure of intangible intensity at the industry level.
The authors provide evidence that financial frictions act as a drag on productivity growth and especially
so with respect to firms operating in intangible intensive sectors.
Keywords: financial constraints, intangible assets, productivity.
The fiscal implications of the low-carbon transition, 31/01/2020	OECD
https://www.oecd-ilibrary.org/docserver/6cea13aa-	Working Paper
en.pdf?expires=1580976740&id=id&accname=guest&checksum=031E154ECCEFD478B3E8701F0E50DB1F
Fossil fuels play an important role in the budget of several governments. On the one hand, half of the
countries identified as resource-rich derived 50% or more of their government revenue from fossil-fuel
resources. On the other hand, fossil fuel consumption in road transport is an important tax base for several
countries. This fiscal entanglement creates specific challenges for countries in preparing for a low carbon
future. In this context, this paper reviews the evidence on the role of fossil fuels in government budget
(section 2) and the best practice for the management of resource revenues, including the role of sovereign
wealth funds and strategic investment funds (section 3). Section 4 discusses the role of green tax reform
in preparing the tax system for the low-carbon transition.

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9. SZANÁLÁS

Cyprus: why an efficient insolvency and foreclosure framework matters	EU
https://www.esm.europa.eu/speeches-and-presentations/cyprus-why-efficient-insolvency-and-	Speech
foreclosure-framework-matters-speech
Speech by Paolo Fioretti, ESM Deputy Head of Banking, Conference on Indebtedness and NPLs'
Achievements and challenges', Nicosia, 5 February 2020
SRB statement: UK withdrawal from the EU, 31/01/2020	EU
https://srb.europa.eu/en/node/917	Press Release

10. STATISZTIKA

Euro area bank interest rate statistics: December 2019, 04/02/2020	ECB
https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/pr/stats/mfi/html/ecb.mir1912~d2b4aec6cb.en.html	Press Release
Volume of retail trade down by 1.6% in euro area, 05/02/2020	EU
https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/documents/2995521/10159448/4-05022020-AP-EN.pdf/ea425d80-3d89-	Press Release
5aeb-440e-89a1ba284efe
Primary and final energy consumption still 5% and 3% away from 2020 targets, 04/02/2020	EU
https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/documents/2995521/10341545/8-04022020-BP-EN.pdf/39dcc365-bdaa-	Press Release
e6f6-046d-1b4d241392ad
Industrial producer prices stable in both euro area and EU27, 04/02/2020	EU
https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/documents/2995521/10159436/4-04022020-AP-EN.pdf/7d067c86-8df4-	Press Release
a434-f0c1-8688dbac8239
GDP up by 0.1% in both euro area and EU28, 31/01/2020	EU
https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/documents/2995521/10159272/2-31012020-BP-EN.pdf/435a608a-c9f9-	Press Release
9043-52a1-43ee8cb03d8f
Euro area annual inflation up to 1.4%, 31/01/2020	EU
https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/documents/2995521/10159260/2-31012020-AP-EN.pdf/4878b5ca-4819-	Press Release
bef1-fac9-8b5114b5932c
Contingent liabilities and non-performing loans in the EU Member States in 2018, 30/01/2020	EU
https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/documents/2995521/10396655/2-30012020-BP-EN.pdf/3096e14d-fa27-	Press Release
9f9e-0b29-0b7a59651dc2
Euro area unemployment at 7.4%, 30/01/2020	EU
https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/documents/2995521/10159296/3-30012020-AP-EN.pdf/b9a98100-6917-	Press Release
c3ea-a544-ce288ac09675
Central bank policy rates, 05/02/2020	BIS
https://www.bis.org/statistics/cbpol.htm	Press Release
US dollar exchange rates, 05/02/2020	BIS
https://www.bis.org/statistics/xrusd.htm	Press Release

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Effective exchange rate indices, 05/02/2020	BIS
https://www.bis.org/statistics/eer.htm	Press Release
Residential property prices: detailed series (nominal), 29/01/2020	BIS
https://www.bis.org/statistics/pp_detailed.htm	Press Release
Commercial property prices, 29/01/2020	BIS
https://www.bis.org/statistics/pp_commercial.htm	Press Release
Consumer prices, 29/01/2020	BIS
https://www.bis.org/statistics/cp.htm	Press Release
Higher energy prices push OECD inflation up to 2.1% in December 2019 - Consumer Prices, OECD -	OECD
Updated: 4 February 2020, 04/02/2020	Press Release
http://www.oecd.org/sdd/prices-ppp/consumer-prices-oecd-02-2020.pdf

11. PÉNZÜGYI ISMERETTERJESZTÉS, PÉNZÜGYI KULTÚRA

Education in the digital world	BIS
https://www.bis.org/review/r200203a.htm	Central Bankers'
Opening speech by Mr Ignazio Visco, Governor of the Bank of Italy, at the Centesimus Annus Pro Pontifice	Speech
Foundation - Seventh Consultation Meeting "Ethos, Education and Training: Avenues toward equality and
ethical behaviours in the digital era", Catholic University of the Sacred Heart, Milan, 31 January 2020

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