Válogatás a nemzetközi intézmények és külföldi jegybankok publikációiból (2021.01.14-20.)

NEMZETKÖZI SZEMELVÉNYEK

Válogatás a nemzetközi intézmények és külföldi jegybankok publikációiból

2021. január 14. - 20.

	TARTALOMJEGYZÉK
1.	MONETÁRIS POLITIKA, INFLÁCIÓ ...................................................................................................	3
2.	PÉNZÜGYI STABILITÁS, PÉNZÜGYI PIACOK ....................................................................................	3
3.	MIKROPRUDENCIÁLIS FELÜGYELET ÉS SZABÁLYOZÁS...................................................................	5
4.	FINTECH, KRIPTOVALUTÁK, MESTERSÉGES INTELLIGENCIA..........................................................	6
5.	ZÖLD PÉNZÜGYEK, FENNTARTHATÓ FEJLŐDÉS .............................................................................	7
6.	MAKROGAZDASÁG .........................................................................................................................	8
7.	ÁLTALÁNOS GAZDASÁGPOLITIKA ..................................................................................................	8
8.	KÖLTSÉGVETÉSI POLITIKA, ADÓZÁS .............................................................................................	11
9.	SZANÁLÁS......................................................................................................................................	11
10.	STATISZTIKA ..............................................................................................................................	12
11. PÉNZÜGYI ISMERETTERJESZTÉS, PÉNZÜGYI KULTÚRA ............................................................	13

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1. MONETÁRIS POLITIKA, INFLÁCIÓ

Full Employment in the New Monetary Policy Framework, 13/01/2021	BIS
https://www.bis.org/review/r210114b.htm	Central Bankers'
Remarks (via webcast) by Ms Lael Brainard, Member of the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve	Speech
System, at the Inaugural Mike McCracken Lecture on Full Employment Sponsored by the Canadian
Association for Business Economics, 13 January 2021.
The Federal Reserve's new framework - context and consequences, 13/01/2021	BIS
https://www.bis.org/review/r210114a.htm	Central Bankers'
Speech (via webcast) by Mr Richard H Clarida, Vice Chair of the Board of Governors of the Federal	Speech
Reserve System, at the "The Road Ahead for Central Banks", a seminar sponsored by the Hoover
Economic Policy Working Group, Hoover Institution, Stanford, California, 13 January 2021.
Consolidated financial statement of the Eurosystem, 15/01/2021	ECB
https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/pr/wfs/2021/html/ecb.fst210119.en.html	Press Release
Commentary:
https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/pr/wfs/2021/html/ecb.fs210119.en.html
ECB monetary policy meeting of 9-10 December 2020, 14/01/2021	ECB
https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/accounts/2021/html/ecb.mg210114~14ef04b8bd.en.html	Press Release
US, China must act to avoid monetary breakdown, 19/01/2021	OMFIF
https://www.omfif.org/2021/01/us-china-must-act-to-avoid-monetary-	Commentary
breakdown/?utm_source=omfifupdate
With the rise of quantitative easing after the 2008 financial crisis, intensified by the Covid-19 pandemic,
central banks are exerting ever-greater control over financial markets. This is part of an era of debt-
fuelled state capitalism that is looking increasingly vulnerable. The system needs a reset. One thing is
clear. Anything Biden undertakes in this field will fail unless the US involves China in a meaningful and
constructive way.
Why low inflation could last 50 years, 15/01/2021	OMFIF
https://www.omfif.org/2021/01/outlook-2021-why-the-era-of-low-inflation-could-last-for-50-	Commentary
years/?utm_source=omfifupdate
Covid-19 has upended traditional economic thinking in a way that was even harder to anticipate than
the virus itself. Economists were not prepared for a simultaneous supply and demand shock, alongside
a deep fall in income and employment. The old rules no longer apply. There is no inflation in the system.
Is this phase an exception or is it the new ruling financial environment? I am going to stick my neck out
and say it will last for 50 years.

2. PÉNZÜGYI STABILITÁS, PÉNZÜGYI PIACOK

Showing how EU solidarity calmed markets over Brexit, 19/01/2021	EU
https://www.esm.europa.eu/blog/showing-how-eu-solidarity-calmed-markets-over-brexit	Blog Post

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The euro area bank lending survey - fourth quarter of 2020, 19/01/2020	ECB
https://www.ecb.europa.eu/stats/ecb_surveys/bank_lending_survey/pdf/ecb.blssurvey2020q4~e89c	Publication
77d212.en.pdf	+
	Press Release
Main conclusions:
• Credit standards tightened for loans to enterprises and households
• Firms' demand for loans continued to decline, while demand for housing loans increased
• Government guarantees on loans to firms supported bank lending conditions
Related press release:
https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/pr/date/2021/html/ecb.pr210119~7817ac690d.en.html
Firm-specificrisk-neutral distributions with options and CDS, 19/01/2021	BIS
https://www.bis.org/publ/work921.htm	Working Paper
The authors propose a method to extract the risk-neutral distribution of firm-specific stock returns using
both options and credit default swaps (CDS). Options and CDS provide information about the central
part and the left tail of the distribution, respectively. Taken together, but not in isolation, options and
CDS span the intermediate part of the distribution, which is driven by exposure to the risk of large but
not extreme returns. Through a series of asset-pricing tests, the authors show that this intermediate-
return risk carries a premium, particularly at times of heightened market stress.
Keywords: risk neutral distributions; investor expectations; CDS spreads.
Understanding bank and non-bank credit cycles: a structural exploration, 14/01/2021	BIS
https://www.bis.org/publ/work919.htm	Working Paper
The authors explore the structural drivers of bank and nonbank credit cycles using a medium-scale DSGE
model with two types of financial intermediation. The authors posit economy-wide and sectoral
disturbances in both macro and financial sectors. The authors estimate that sectoral shocks to the
balance sheets of entrepreneurs are important for fluctuations in bank and nonbank credit growth at
the business cycle frequency. Economy-wide entrepreneurial risk shocks gain predominance for
explaining the lower frequency co-movement between the two series. Macro shocks play very little role
in explaining financial cycles.
Keywords: banks; non-banks; financial shocks; credit cycles, leverage; DSGE models; capital
requirements.
Effects of LTV announcements in EU economies, 14/01/2021	BIS
https://www.dnb.nl/en/binaries/Working%20paper%20No.%20704_tcm47-391613.pdf	Research Hub
	Working Paper
Earlier studies on macroprudential policies focus on implementation dates and ignore potential
anticipation effects. The authors collect monthly data on announcements of loan-to-value (LTV) ratio
restrictions covering EU economies during 2000-2019. They show that announcements of LTV policies
can have a sizeable impact on household credit, house prices and household durable goods
consumption. New mortgage lending rates appear to increase following the announcement of an LTV
ratio restriction. The estimated contractionary effects are driven mostly by binding actions and actions
with non-discretionary components, suggesting that the design of macroprudential policies matters for
their effectiveness.
Keywords: macroprudential policy; loan-to-value ratios; cost of credit; local projections.

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