In the initial eleven months of 2012 sales of food, beverages and tobacco products declined by only 0.6 percent year-on-year in an unfavourable global economic climate. In the eleventh month of last year, however, this retail sub sector registered a decrease of 2 percent in comparison to the corresponding period of the previous year (2011). Year-on-year, sales of pharmaceutical and medical goods, cosmetics articles and second hand products as well as those of mail order services providers continued to increase.

The year-on-year retail sales decline of 4.1 percent recorded in November was mainly attributable to lower turnover at stores of furniture and electrical goods, textiles, clothing and footwear, books and computer equipment, food, beverages and tobacco products as well as sales at filling stations. Turnover in domestic retail stores and at mail order and internet services providers totalled 692bn HUF in November 2012 and 7415bn HUF in the initial eleven months of 2012.

Turnover at stores of food, beverages and tobacco products constituting 45 percent of total sales volume declined by 2 percent year-on-year, however considering the initial eleven months of the year sales volume was almost on par with last year's level.

Turnover at stores of non-food products declined by 7.7 percent in November, which corresponds to an aggregate decrease of 3 percent for the initial eleven months. Mail order and internet services providers continue to generate dynamically growing sales, the sales volume of this sub sector was up by 23.6 percent in November compared to the corresponding period of the previous year, but turnover was also improving at stores of cosmetics products (4.4 percent), second-hand goods (0.7 percent) and pharmaceutical and medical products (4.1 percent).

Regarding the period January-November 2012 the aforementioned sub sectors among stores of non-food products have put up good performance (with the exception of pharmaceutical and medical products) and stores of textiles, clothing and footwear could also increase sales while turnover of electrical goods stagnated.

Sales at filling stations continued to be lower than the figure of the corresponding period of last year, but the pace of decline appears to be slowing. In November sales were down by 1.1 percent after having declined by 5 percent in October, whereas sales were lower by 3 percent in the initial eleven months.

According to currently available Eurostat data, retail sales declined in twelve countries of the EU in November, while growth was registered in ten of them. In the euro-zone the decline averaged 2.6 percent; while in the EU 27 average decrease amounted to 1.3 percent. In the region Slovenia and Bulgaria registered worse figures than Hungary's, but even in Slovakia and Poland, which performed better, volume decline exceeded 2 percent.
Negative retail sales statistics are primarily the consequence of external market developments, but low domestic demand is also the result of loan repayments due to high indebtedness and the cautious attitude of consumers.  The GKI consumer confidence index published recently shows steady improvement in the past 2-3 months and that may be a reason for optimism with regard to the future. In the past 1-2 months confidence indices signalled improvement also Europe which may indicate that Europe and Hungary have been emerging from recession.

The highly impressive ZEW index of Germany (the best figure since May 2010), on the other hand, signals improving prospects for Hungary's main export partner that Hungarian foreign trade may profit from.

(Ministry for National Economy)

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