Divergent trends in bond markets on both sides of the Atlantic... but nothing spectacular.

The attempt to rebound in Euro-denominated bonds, which began on Thursday and continued into the early morning, has come to nothing, with OATs down +3pts to 2.9030% and Bunds up +1pt to 2.4150% (or +5pts weekly).
Italian BTPs remain stable at 3.880%, but US Gilts are up +2pts at 4.16%, i.e. +12pts for the week, the worst performance on the Old Continent.

T-Bonds, on the other hand, eased by -5pts to 4.202%, marking a good week with a spread of -4pts... which can be summed up by today's upturn (taking the week from red to green).


This morning, investors took note of various statistics, such as the HCOB PMI index for eurozone manufacturing, produced by S&P Global, which stood at 46.5 in February, relatively stable compared with the ten-month high recorded in January (46.6).

In France, the PMI HCOB index for the manufacturing industry, produced by S&P Global, recovered from 43.1 in January to 47.1 in February, its highest level since March 2023, thus highlighting a strong slowdown in the sector's contraction.

Conversely, the day's US figures proved disappointing: activity in the US manufacturing sector contracted for the 16th month in a row in February, according to the monthly survey published on Friday by the Institute for Supply Management (ISM).

The ISM manufacturing index fell to 47.8 last month, compared with 49.1 in January (and 49.5 expected).

The new orders sub-index fell by 3.3 points back below the critical 50-point threshold, to 49.2 from 52.5 the previous month.

The component measuring production also sank into the contraction zone, to 48.4 in February from 50.4, while that measuring prices paid remained high, at 52.5 compared with 52.9 in January.

US consumer confidence deteriorated sharply in February, according to the index calculated by the University of Michigan, which finally came in at 76.9, compared with a preliminary estimate of 79.6 and 79 for the previous month.

The easing of US interest rates seems to be boosting gold, which soared +2.5% towards $2,085 (the big resistance at $2.077 is 'lifted') and emerges as the big winner of the week... but the interest rate factor is perhaps secondary to the geopolitical climate, which is becoming tenser, with an escalation of martial declarations by France and Russia (the Elysée returned to the charge this Friday and put the question of sending NATO soldiers to Ukraine back on the table, despite the widespread outcry from Tuesday).

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