The S&P 500 climbed 10% in the first quarter, its best start to a year since 2019, even though two of its biggest constituents suffered double-digit declines. Apple shares fell 11% in the first three months of the year, while Tesla dropped almost 30%. Alphabet shares sputtered for much of the period before making a run in the past three weeks and ending up 8%.


Here's why the Fed and other experts on the economy missed the mark on inflation

Last year, following the Great Inflation of 2021-22, central banks, leading academics and international institutions issued a smattering of postmortems. Yet even before the ink was dry on their analyses, inflation forecasts were being revised down almost as fast as they had been revised up during the two preceding years.

For example, in June 2023, the U.S. Federal Reserve's median projection for core year-on-year personal-consumption expenditures inflation (excluding food and energy prices) in the fourth quarter was 3.9%, with the Federal Open Market Committee's projections ranging from 3.6% to 4.5%. In actuality, it was 3.2%.


Yen Intervention Risk Is Rising, but Effects Could Be Short-Lived

The yen faces rising risks of intervention by Japanese authorities as it approaches the psychologically important 152.00 level against the U.S. dollar, but the impact of any actions could be short-lived.

Traders are increasingly wary of potential intervention following recent warnings from Japanese officials as the yen weakened to 34-year lows against the dollar. Finance Minister Shunichi Suzuki said Tuesday that the ministry is watching market trends with a "high sense of urgency" and that it wants to respond "appropriately" to any "excessive movements" in the local currency, according to a local media report.


Donald Trump Obtains $175 Million Bond in Civil Fraud Case

Donald Trump secured a $175 million bond to guarantee his civil fraud judgment during his appeal, likely saving him from having to pay a final penalty in the case until after the presidential election.

The former president obtained the bond through Knight Specialty Insurance Company, according to a filing Monday night. He now has gotten nearly $267 million in bonds for his appeals of two civil cases, including a $92 million bond to guarantee a judgment in a civil defamation case brought by writer E. Jean Carroll. The appeals court hearing the civil fraud case is unlikely to rule until later this fall, meaning any financial penalties faced by Trump, who has clinched the Republican presidential nomination, are likely to come due after November.


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This article is a text version of a Wall Street Journal newsletter published earlier today.


(END) Dow Jones Newswires

04-02-24 0541ET