A quiet, featureless day on the FOREX, with only the Swiss franc standing out, gaining between +0.35 and +0.5% against the dollar and euro.

The Dollar rallied at the end of the day, thanks to vigorous US GDP growth: the Dollar-Index, which hit a new low of 102.5 this morning, the lowest since August 11, recovered by +0.1% to 102.85.
Forex traders seem to have ignored the sharp downward revision in OECD forecasts, which reduced US GDP growth from 2.4% to 1.5%.

France has also seen its OECD forecasts cut from +1.2% to +0.8% (the government is expecting +1.4% in 2024, i.e. 75% more.

The euro is down -0.15% at 1.0980, after having climbed to 1.1018, its best mark since July 28 to August 10.

The greenback did not experience any major upward shift, however, on the publication of an upward revision of US GDP for the third quarter: it came in at +5.2%, reflecting much stronger growth than the 4.9% initially announced.

Consumption and investment (revised upwards) are the 2 main drivers of the most spectacular growth recorded since Q4 2020.
No negative reaction to the publication of a widening of the trade balance deficit by +$3 billion to $89.84 billion in October, whereas economists were forecasting a very slight increase to $86.70 billion.

Nor did the euro experience any downward lag following the release of the first estimate of consumer prices in Germany in November: it came out 0.6 points lower at +3.2%, fuelling speculation that a rate cut in Europe would soon follow a 1st monetary easing move by the FED.

German inflation is at its lowest level since June 2021 (+2.4%), according to Destatis' preliminary estimate.
The German institute highlights the 4.5% year-on-year fall in energy prices.
Excluding food and energy, underlying inflation should come in at +3.8% for the month just ended, compared with +4.3% in October.



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