Currencies: How much? Just a pound!

After looking at some particularly weak currencies (JPY and CHF), it was time to take a look at the other side of the fence. Among European currencies, sterling is doing particularly well, even against the euro. But it's against the Canadian dollar that the configuration is most interesting.

Brexit? Forget it! Inflation? Under control! Growth? No worse than in the eurozone. All in all, sterling is doing well, thank you. As proof, here's a small chart comparing its performance since the beginning of 2023 against various G10 currencies.

Although the performance against the Swiss franc is particularly marked this year, due to the overall weakness of the Helvetic currency and not to sterling's strength, the GBPCAD's configuration is interesting to follow. Since 2015, the pair has drawn a classic three-step decline and stopped on a perfect Fibonacci ratio projection. Without going into too much detail, let's just say that a major low was recorded in 2022, and since then the currency has needed to be worked on to the upside.

In fact, it is in the process of breaking out of a congestion zone at the top of the 1.7390 level, which should kick-start the upward momentum towards 1.8360 or even 1.9350. Of course, we're not talking here about a move in the next few days or even weeks, but a fundamental movement that should last for months.

Source : Bloomberg

Elsewhere in the news, the EURUSD stalled at 1.0890, but will have to break through 1.0790 to confirm the end of the recovery initiated in April and return the euro to its downtrend against the dollar. We can keep an eye on 103.90 (in parallel with 1.0890) on the dollar index, with resistance to be breached around 105.30 to relaunch the upward momentum.