Central Bank of Hungary : Válogatás a nemzetközi intézmények és külföldi jegybankok publikációiból (2021.05.20-05.26.)

NEMZETKÖZI SZEMELVÉNYEK

Válogatás a nemzetközi intézmények és külföldi jegybankok publikációiból

2021. május 20. - május 26.

	TARTALOMJEGYZÉK
1.	MONETÁRIS POLITIKA, INFLÁCIÓ ...................................................................................................	3
2.	PÉNZÜGYI STABILITÁS, PÉNZÜGYI PIACOK ....................................................................................	4
3.	MIKROPRUDENCIÁLIS FELÜGYELET ÉS SZABÁLYOZÁS...................................................................	5
4.	FINTECH, KRIPTOVALUTÁK, MESTERSÉGES INTELLIGENCIA..........................................................	6
5.	ZÖLD PÉNZÜGYEK, FENNTARTHATÓ FEJLŐDÉS .............................................................................	7
6.	MAKROGAZDASÁG .........................................................................................................................	8
7.	ÁLTALÁNOS GAZDASÁGPOLITIKA ..................................................................................................	9
8.	KÖLTSÉGVETÉSI POLITIKA, ADÓZÁS .............................................................................................	14
9.	SZANÁLÁS......................................................................................................................................	14
10.	STATISZTIKA ..................................................................................................................................	15

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1. MONETÁRIS POLITIKA, INFLÁCIÓ

The ECB strategy review	ECB
https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/key/date/2021/html/ecb.sp210525~5ffef091e8.en.pdf?f04879457	Speech
2a20114b85143a200123eae
Presentation by Philip R. Lane, Member of the Executive Board of the ECB, at the Peterson Institute for
International Economics, 25 May 2021
Inflation and monetary policy in a post-Covid-19 world	BIS
https://www.bis.org/review/r210526a.htm	Central Bankers'
Speech by Mr François Villeroy de Galhau, Governor of the Bank of France, at the Nordic Summit 2021,	Speech
25 May 2021.
Adapting to new conditions - monetary policy freedom with responsibility	BIS
https://www.bis.org/review/r210525b.htm	Central Bankers'
Speech by Ms Cecilia Skingsley, Deputy Governor of the Sveriges Riksbank, at SEB's digital webinar,	Speech
20 May 2021.
Pressure building on Bundesbank over ECB asset purchase plans, 26/05/2021	OMFIF
https://www.omfif.org/2021/05/pressure-building-on-bundesbank-over-ecb-asset-purchase-	Commentary
plans/?utm_source=omfifupdate
Pressure is mounting on the German Bundesbank to seek to head off further expansion of ECB asset
purchases, as anxiety deepens in Germany about economic overheating and higher inflation in the US
and Europe. Behind-the-scenes ECB wrangling, likely to surface at the next governing council meeting
on 10 June, could expose the 22-year-old single currency to one of its greatest tests as Europe emerges
at disparate speeds from the pandemic.
Germany's curious austerity debate, 26/05/2021	OMFIF
https://www.omfif.org/2021/05/germanys-curious-austerity-debate/?utm_source=omfifupdate	Commentary
German politicians and commentators are engaged in a back and forth about what to do in a post-Covid
world and the now suspended constitutional debt brake. It is a curious debate with echoes of austerity
that may appeal to a German public known for its conservativism, but one that also flies in the face of
today's economic realities. Moving to reinstate the debt brake and shifting towards a less
accommodative monetary policy is not the way forward for Germany, Europe or the international
community.
2021 inflation is legacy of 2008, 24/05/2021	OMFIF
https://www.omfif.org/2021/05/2021-inflation-is-legacy-of-2008/	Commentary
Jim Bullard, president of the Federal Reserve Bank of St Louis, painted a confident picture of US inflation
prospects at an OMFIF briefing on 19 May. He joined David Marsh, OMFIF chairman, for a discussion of
the Federal Reserve's policies, the outlook for the US labour market, wage growth and the global
consequences of the Covid-19 pandemic. According to Bullard, we are all inflation hawks at heart, but
unlikely to spread our wings any time soon.
Macro Notes: CEE-4 - Inflation Points to Monetary Tightening, 26/05/2021	IIF
https://www.iif.com/Publications/ID/4433/Macro-Notes-CEE-4--Inflation-Points-to-Monetary-	Publication*
Tightening

• Az IIF weboldalán található elemzések csak az IIF-tagok számára elérhetőek előzetes regisztrációt követően. Igény esetén az elemzést továbbítjuk az érdeklődők részére.

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The authors apply a Taylor Rule-based approach to policy making in the CEE-4 and find that rising
inflationary pressures point to a need for rate hikes in three of the four countries: the Czech Republic,
Hungary, and Poland. Closing output gaps also contribute, while lower real rates provide room.
Global Macro Views: Supply Disruptions, Inflation and the Fed, 20/05/2021	IIF
https://www.iif.com/Publications/ID/4426/Global-Macro-Views-Supply-Disruptions-Inflation-and-the-Fed	Publication*
The authors have been documenting unprecedented supply chain disruptions which stand out for their
severity and for their increasingly global dispersion. The authors show that these disruptions look to
have passed fully into US core PPI inflation, but lags in passthrough mean that core CPI and PCE inflation
will rise somewhat further. The Fed was early to communicate the inflation fallout from these supply
chain disruptions.

2. PÉNZÜGYI STABILITÁS, PÉNZÜGYI PIACOK

Letter from Andrea Enria, Chair of the Supervisory Board, to Mr Zanni, Ms Donato, Mr Grant and Mr	ECB
Rinaldi, MEPs, on exposure of the European banking system to speculative investment risk,	Letter
20/05/2021
https://www.bankingsupervision.europa.eu/ecb/pub/pdf/ssm.mepletter210520_Zanni_Donato_Gran
t_Rinaldi~2d20d47904.en.pdf?dcde35548a99a7c53aad53036269ea8d
FSB Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS) group discusses risks to financial stability,	FSB
20/05/2021	Press Release
https://www.fsb.org/2021/05/fsb-commonwealth-of-independent-states-cis-group-discusses-risks-to-
financial-stability/
Policies in support of lending following the coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic, 21/05/2021	ECB
https://www.ecb.europa.eu/pub/pdf/scpops/ecb.op257~696c8baad8.en.pdf?e702b0271883f3124bb	Publication
215cd7163b660
This paper looks at the impact of mitigation policies implemented by supervisory and macroprudential
authorities as well as national governments in the euro area during the coronavirus (COVID-19)
pandemic to support lending to the real economy. The impact assessment concerns joint, and individual,
effect of supervisory measures introduced by the ECB Banking Supervision, a reduction in
macroprudential buffers put forward by national macroprudential authorities, and public moratoria and
guarantee schemes.
Keywords: COVID-19, impact assessment, banking sector, real-financial feedback mechanism
A risk management perspective on macroprudential policy, 20/05/2021	ECB
https://www.ecb.europa.eu/pub/pdf/scpwps/ecb.wp2556~a845d41125.en.pdf?2a21cffafc8119e1bde	Publication
2ea6f2540d085
Macroprudential policymakers assess medium-term downside risks to the real economy arising from
financial imbalances and implement policies aimed at managing those risks. In doing so, they face an
inherent intertemporal trade-off between the expected growth and downside risks. This paper reviews
the literature on Growth-at-Risk, embeds it in the wider literature on macroprudential policy, and
proposes an empirical risk management framework.
Keywords: growth-at-risk, stress testing, quantile vector autoregression, financial conditions,
macroprudential policy

4

Commercial Real Estate and Financial Stability: Evidence from the US Banking Sector, 26/05/2021	IMF
https://www.imf.org/en/Publications/global-financial-stability-notes/Issues/2021/05/26/Commercial-	Publication
Real-Estate-and-Financial-Stability-Evidence-from-the-US-Banking-Sector-460398
This note analyzes the implications of changes in commercial real estate (CRE) prices for the stability of
the US banking sector. Using detailed bank-level and CRE price data for US metropolitan statistical areas,
the analysis shows that, following a decline in CRE prices, banks with greater exposures to CRE loans
perform worse than their counterparts, experiencing higher non-performing CRE loans, lower revenues,
and lower capital. These effects are particularly pronounced if the drop in CRE prices turns out to be
persistent because of possible structural shifts in CRE demand-for example, because of an increased
trend toward e-commerce and teleworking-even after the coronavirus disease (COVID-19) pandemic
is over.
The procyclicality of loan loss provisions: a literature review, 25/05/2021	BIS
https://www.bis.org/bcbs/publ/wp39.htm	Publication
The recent introduction of expected credit loss (ECL) accounting standards under International Financial
Reporting Standard 9 Financial Instruments (IFRS 9) and US Generally Accepted Accounting Principles
(US GAAP) (Current Expected Credit Losses (CECL)) has impacted the amount and timing of loan loss
provisions (LLPs) relative to the previous incurred loss (IL) standards. ECL standards require banks to
recognise credit losses projected to crystallise in the future and credit losses already incurred.
Recognition of such future losses, however, was generally not permitted under IL standards, which
placed significant constraints on this practice.

3. MIKROPRUDENCIÁLIS FELÜGYELET ÉS SZABÁLYOZÁS

Trends in the prudential supervision of money laundering and terrorism financing (ML/TF) risks	ECB/SSM
https://www.bankingsupervision.europa.eu/press/speeches/date/2021/html/ssm.sp210524~df7ef6a	Presentation
060.en.pdf?13f715282ef4b5ceef09e323f3596921
Presentation by Elizabeth McCaul, Member of the Supervisory Board of the ECB, at the Compliance
Talks, 24 May 2021.
EBA publishes final draft technical standards on own funds and eligible liabilities, 26/05/2021	EBA
https://www.eba.europa.eu/eba-publishes-final-draft-technical-standards-own-funds-and-eligible-	Press Release
liabilities
EBA publishes results of EU-wide pilot exercise on climate risk, 21/05/2021	EBA
https://www.eba.europa.eu/eba-publishes-results-eu-wide-pilot-exercise-climate-risk	Press Release
ESMA responds to European Commission consultation on the ESAs test, 26/05/2021	ESMA
https://www.esma.europa.eu/press-news/esma-news/esma-responds-european-commission-	Press Release
consultation-esas
ESMA consults on commodity derivatives technical standards as part of MiFIDII Recovery Package	ESMA
test, 26/05/2021	Press Release
https://www.esma.europa.eu/press-news/esma-news/esma-consults-commodity-derivatives-
technical-standards-part-mifidii-recovery
ESMA consults on Disclosure Requirements for Initial Reviews and Preliminary Ratings test,	ESMA
26/05/2021	Press Release
https://www.esma.europa.eu/press-news/esma-news/esma-consults-disclosure-requirements-initial-
reviews-and-preliminary-ratings

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