BLS U S Bureau of Labor Statistics : Metropolitan Area Employment and Unemployment (Monthly)

For release 10:00 a.m. (EST) Thursday, January 3, 2019

USDL-19-0001

Technical information:

Employment:	[phone] •[e-mail]• www.bls.gov/sae
Unemployment:	[phone] •[e-mail]• www.bls.gov/lau
Media contact:	[phone] •[e-mail]

METROPOLITAN AREA EMPLOYMENT AND UNEMPLOYMENT - NOVEMBER 2018

Unemployment rates were lower in November than a year earlier in 290 of the 388 metropolitan areas, higher in 69 areas, and unchanged in 29 areas, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. A total of 104 areas had jobless rates of less than 3.0 percent and 2 areas had rates of at least 10.0 percent. Nonfarm payroll employment increased over the year in 54 metropolitan areas and was essentially unchanged in 334 areas. The national unemployment rate in November was 3.5 percent, not seasonally adjusted, down from 3.9 percent a year earlier.

Metropolitan Area Unemployment (Not Seasonally Adjusted)

In November, Ames, IA, had the lowest unemployment rate, 1.2 percent. El Centro, CA, and Yuma, AZ, had the highest unemployment rates, 18.1 percent and 14.9 percent, respectively. A total of 198 areas had November unemployment rates below the U.S. rate of 3.5 percent, 176 areas had rates above it, and 14 areas had rates equal to that of the nation. (See table 1 and map 1.)

The largest over-the-year unemployment rate decrease occurred in Ocean City, NJ (-3.4 percentage points). Fifty-five additional areas had rate decreases of at least 1.0 percentage point. Kokomo, IN, had the largest over-the-year rate increase in November (+5.1 percentage points).

Of the 51 metropolitan areas with a 2010 Census population of 1 million or more, Minneapolis-St. Paul-Bloomington, MN-WI, had the lowest unemployment rate in November, 2.0 percent. Cleveland-Elyria, OH, and Las Vegas-Henderson-Paradise, NV, had the highest jobless rates among the large areas, 4.4 percent each. Thirty-nine large areas had over-the-year unemployment rate decreases, eight had increases, and four had no change. The largest rate decreases occurred in Buffalo-Cheektowaga-Niagara Falls, NY (-1.6 percentage points), and Rochester, NY (-1.5 points). The largest over-the-year rate increase was in Denver-Aurora-Lakewood, CO (+0.5 percentage point).

Metropolitan Division Unemployment (Not Seasonally Adjusted)

Eleven of the most populous metropolitan areas are made up of 38 metropolitan divisions, which are essentially separately identifiable employment centers. In November, Framingham, MA, and San Francisco-Redwood City-South San Francisco, CA, had the lowest rates among the divisions, 2.1 percent each. Tacoma-Lakewood, WA, had the highest division rate, 4.9 percent. (See table 2.)

In November, 33 metropolitan divisions had over-the-year unemployment rate decreases, 4 had increases, and 1 had no change. The largest rate declines occurred in Miami-Miami Beach-Kendall, FL, and Nassau County-Suffolk County, NY (-1.3 percentage points each). The largest over-the-year rate increase was in Elgin, IL (+0.5 percentage point).

Metropolitan Area Nonfarm Employment (Not Seasonally Adjusted)

In November, 54 metropolitan areas had over-the-year increases in nonfarm payroll employment and 334 were essentially unchanged. The largest over-the-year employment increases occurred in Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX (+114,400), New York-Newark-Jersey City, NY-NJ-PA (+113,000), and Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX (+94,700). The largest over-the-year percentage gains in employment occurred in Reno, NV (+5.9 percent), Midland, TX (+5.7 percent), and Colorado Springs, CO (+5.0 percent). (See table 3 and map 2.)

Over the year, nonfarm employment rose in 37 of the 51 metropolitan areas with a 2010 Census population of 1 million or more, while employment was essentially unchanged in 14 areas. The largest over-the-year percentage increases in employment in these large metropolitan areas occurred in Orlando-Kissimmee-Sanford, FL (+4.8 percent), Phoenix-Mesa-Scottsdale, AZ (+4.2 percent), and Las Vegas-Henderson-Paradise, NV (+3.8 percent).

Metropolitan Division Nonfarm Employment (Not Seasonally Adjusted)

In November, nonfarm payroll employment increased in 16 of the 38 metropolitan divisions over the year and was essentially unchanged in 22 divisions. The largest over-the-year increase in employment among the metropolitan divisions occurred in New York-Jersey City-White Plains, NY-NJ (+87,200), followed by Dallas-Plano-Irving, TX (+73,400), and Seattle-Bellevue-Everett, WA (+63,000). (See table 4.)

The largest over-the-year percentage increases in employment occurred in Seattle-Bellevue-Everett, WA (+3.7 percent), West Palm Beach-Boca Raton-Delray Beach, FL (+3.2 percent), and Tacoma-Lakewood, WA (+2.9 percent).

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The State Employment and Unemployment news release for December 2018 is scheduled to be released on Friday, January 18, 2019, at 10:00 a.m. (EST). The Metropolitan Area Employment and Unemployment news release for December 2018 is scheduled to be released on Wednesday, January 30, 2019, at 10:00 a.m. (EST).

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Technical Note

This release presents civilian labor force and unemployment data from the Local Area Unemployment Statistics (LAUS) program (tables 1 and 2) for 388 metropolitan statistical areas and metropolitan New England City and Town Areas (NECTAs), plus 7 areas in Puerto Rico. Estimates for 38 metropolitan and NECTA divisions also are presented. Nonfarm payroll employment estimates from the Current Employment Statistics (CES) program (tables 3 and 4) are provided for the same areas. State estimates were previously published in the news release State Employment and Unemployment, and are republished in this release for ease of reference. The LAUS and CES programs are both federal-state cooperative endeavors.

Civilian labor force and unemployment-from the LAUS program

Definitions. The civilian labor force and unemployment data are based on the same concepts and definitions as those used for the official national estimates obtained from the Current Population Survey (CPS), a sample survey of households that is conducted for the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) by the U.S. Census Bureau. The LAUS program measures employed persons and unemployed persons on a place-of-residence basis. The universe for each is the civilian noninstitutional population 16 years of age and older. Employed persons are those who did any work at all for pay or profit in the reference week (typically the week including the 12th of the month) or worked 15 hours or more without pay in a family business or farm, plus those not working who had a job from which they were temporarily absent, whether or not paid, for such reasons as labor-management dispute, illness, or vacation. Unemployed persons are those who were not employed during the reference week (based on the definition above), had actively looked for a job sometime in the 4-week period ending with the reference week, and were currently available for work; persons on layoff expecting recall need not be looking for work to be counted as unemployed. The civilian labor force is the sum of employed and unemployed persons. The unemployment rate is the number of unemployed as a percent of the civilian labor force.

Method of estimation. Estimates for states, the District of Columbia, the Los Angeles-Long Beach-Glendale metropolitan division, and New York City are produced using time-series models with real-time benchmarking to national CPS totals. Model-based estimates are also produced for the following areas and their respective balances: the Chicago-Naperville-Arlington Heights, IL Metropolitan Division; Cleveland-Elyria, OH Metropolitan Statistical Area; Detroit-Warren-Dearborn, MI Metropolitan Statistical Area; Miami-Miami Beach-Kendall, FL Metropolitan Division; and Seattle-Bellevue-Everett, WA Metropolitan Division. Modeling improves the statistical basis of the estimation for these areas and provides important tools for analysis, such as measures of errors and seasonally adjusted series. For all other substateareas in this release, estimates are prepared through indirect estimation procedures using a building-block approach. Estimates of employed persons, which are based largely on "place of work" estimates from the CES program, are adjusted to refer to place of residence as used in the CPS. Unemployment estimates are aggregates of persons previously employed in industries covered by state unemployment insurance (UI) laws and entrants to the labor force from the CPS. The substate estimates of employment and unemployment, which geographically exhaust the entire state, are adjusted proportionally to ensure that they add to the independently estimated model-based area totals. A detailed description of the estimation procedures is available from BLS upon request.

Annual revisions. Civilian labor force and unemployment data shown for the prior year reflect adjustments made at the beginning of each year, usually implemented with the issuance of January estimates. The adjusted model-based estimates typically reflect updated population data from the U.S. Census Bureau, any revisions in other input data sources, and model re-estimation. All substate estimates then are re-estimated using updated inputs and adjusted to add to the revised model-based totals. In early 2015, a new generation of time-series models was implemented, resulting in the replacement of data back to the series beginnings. At the same time, enhancements were made to the substate estimation methodology, and more timely inputs from the American Community Survey were incorporated.

Employment-from the CES program

Definitions. Employment data refer to persons on establishment payrolls who receive pay for any part of the pay period that includes the 12th of the month. Persons are counted at their place of work rather than at their place of residence; those appearing on more than one payroll are counted on each payroll. Industries are classified on the basis of their principal activity in accordance with the 2017 version of the North American Industry Classification System.

Method of estimation. CES State and Area employment data are produced using several estimation procedures. Where possible these data are produced using a "weighted link relative" estimation technique in which a ratio of current-month weighted employment to that of the previous-month weighted employment is computed from a sample of establishments reporting for both months. The estimates of employment for the current month are then obtained by multiplying these ratios by the previous month's employment estimates. The weighted link relative technique is utilized for data series where the sample size meets certain statistical criteria.

For some employment series, the sample of establishments is very small or highly variable. In these cases,

a model-based approach is used in estimation. These models use the direct sample estimates (described above), combined with forecasts of historical (benchmarked) data to decrease volatility in estimation. Two different models (Fay-Herriot Model and Small Domain Model) are used depending on the industry level being estimated. For more detailed information about each model, refer to the BLS Handbook of Methods.

Annual revisions. Employment estimates are adjusted annually to a complete count of jobs, called benchmarks, derived principally from tax reports that are submitted by employers who are covered under state unemployment insurance (UI) laws. The benchmark information is used to adjust the monthly estimates between the new benchmark and the preceding one and also to establish the level of employment for the new benchmark month. Thus, the benchmarking process establishes the level of employment, and the sample is used to measure the month-to-month changes in the level for the subsequent months.

Seasonal adjustment. Payroll employment data are seasonally adjusted for states, metropolitan areas, and metropolitan divisions at the total nonfarm level. For states, data are seasonally adjusted at the supersector level as well. Revisions to historical data for the most recent 5 years are made once a year, coincident with annual benchmark adjustments.

Beginning with the release of January 2018 preliminary estimates, payroll employment data are seasonally adjusted concurrently, using all available estimates including those for the current month, to develop sample-based seasonal factors. Concurrent sample-based factors are created every month for the current month's preliminary estimate as well as the previous month's final estimate in order to incorporate real-time estimates. Previously, the sample-based seasonal factors were forecasted once annually at the beginning of the year and applied to the sample-based estimates for the 12 months of the year.

Reliability of the estimates

The estimates presented in this release are based on sample surveys, administrative data, and modeling and, thus, are subject to sampling and other types of errors. Sampling error is a measure of sampling variability-that is, variation that occurs by chance because a sample rather than the entire population is surveyed. Survey data also are subject to nonsampling errors, such as those which can be introduced into the data collection and processing operations. Estimates not directly derived from sample surveys are subject to additional errors resulting from the specific estimation processes used. The sums of individual items may not always equal the totals shown in the same tables because of rounding.

Use of error measures

Civilian labor force and unemployment estimates.

Measures of sampling error are not available for metropolitan areas or metropolitan divisions. Model-based error measures for states are available on the BLS website atwww.bls.gov/lau/lastderr.htm. Measures of nonsampling error are not available for the areas contained in this release. Information on recent data revisions for states and local areas is available online atwww.bls.gov/lau/launews1.htm.

Employment estimates. Changes in metropolitan area nonfarm payroll employment are cited in the analysis of this release only if they have been determined to be statistically significant at the 90-percent confidence level. Measures of sampling error for the total nonfarm employment series are available for metropolitan areas and metropolitan divisions atwww.bls.gov/web/laus/790stderr.htm. Measures of sampling error for more detailed series at the area and division level are available upon request. Measures of sampling error for states at the supersector level and for the private service-providing, goods-producing, total private and total nonfarm levels are available on the BLS website atwww.bls.gov/web/laus/790stderr.htm. Information on recent benchmark revisions is available online atwww.bls.gov/web/laus/benchmark.pdf.

Area definitions

The substate area data published in this release reflect the delineations issued by the U.S. Office of Management and Budget on July 15, 2015. Data reflect New England City and Town Area (NECTA) definitions, rather than county-based definitions, in the six New England States. A detailed list of the geographic definitions is available online atwww.bls.gov/lau/lausmsa.htm.

Additional information

Estimates of unadjusted and seasonally adjusted civilian labor force and unemployment data for states and seven substate areas are available in the news release State Employment and Unemployment. Estimates of civilian labor force and unemployment for all states, metropolitan areas, counties, cities with a population of 25,000 or more, and other areas used in the administration of various federal economic assistance programs are available online atwww.bls.gov/lau/. Employment data from the CES program are available on the BLS website atwww.bls.gov/sae/.

Information in this release will be made available to sensory impaired individuals upon request. Voice phone: [phone]; Federal Relay Service: [phone].

LABOR FORCE DATA

NOT SEASONALLY ADJUSTED

Table 1. Civilian labor force and unemployment by state and metropolitan area

2017	2018	2017	2018p
2017	2018
Alabama ...............................	2,168,171	2,226,023	2,161,741	2,220,114	78,653	84,699	74,457	75,461
Anniston-Oxford-Jacksonville . . . . . . . . . . .	45,383	46,275	45,351	46,392	1,867	2,076	1,764	1,866
Auburn-Opelika .......................	73,808	76,016	73,861	76,061	2,356	2,613	2,284	2,343
Birmingham-Hoover ...................	533,322	547,563	531,905	547,645	17,797	19,128	16,678	17,010
Daphne-Fairhope-Foley . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .	91,035	94,128	90,382	93,418	3,084	3,308	2,943	2,967
Decatur ..............................	68,368	70,529	68,448	70,536	2,398	2,457	2,248	2,205
Dothan ..............................	62,175	62,848	61,659	62,702	2,281	2,561	2,206	2,239
Florence-Muscle Shoals . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .	64,782	66,614	64,508	66,407	2,566	2,711	2,398	2,399
Gadsden ............................	42,691	43,567	42,860	43,440	1,629	1,730	1,530	1,561
Huntsville ............................	216,501	227,940	217,735	227,893	6,970	7,658	6,591	6,703
Mobile ...............................	185,865	190,219	185,237	189,695	7,823	8,472	7,553	7,562
Montgomery .........................	172,190	175,570	172,087	175,081	6,077	6,674	5,722	5,913
Tuscaloosa ..........................	113,676	116,257	113,436	116,043	3,849	4,088	3,773	3,723
Alaska .................................	359,848	354,094	359,192	352,824	24,543	20,497	25,753	22,053
Anchorage ...........................	202,015	199,528	203,955	201,005	12,727	10,573	13,192	11,076
Fairbanks ............................	46,987	45,960	47,013	45,803	2,780	2,323	2,988	2,512
Arizona ................................	3,336,707	3,454,477	3,349,772	3,491,136	155,387	155,987	151,672	154,954
Flagstaff .............................	76,582	78,161	75,624	77,920	3,772	3,831	3,720	3,854
Lake Havasu City-Kingman . . . . . . . . . . . .	82,514	85,491	82,878	85,877	4,488	4,518	4,518	4,651
Phoenix-Mesa-Scottsdale . . . . . . . . . . . . . .	2,320,449	2,411,848	2,337,124	2,442,579	93,274	93,302	92,756	94,657
Prescott .............................	102,441	105,870	102,603	106,518	4,276	4,359	4,352	4,541
SierraVista-Douglas ..................	49,404	49,222	49,090	50,045	2,673	2,604	2,659	2,680
Tucson ..............................	476,677	489,549	477,348	494,366	20,267	20,156	20,241	20,632
Yuma ...............................	98,069	101,164	95,215	100,423	17,034	17,857	14,366	14,998
Arkansas ..............................	1,359,086	1,353,831	1,352,672	1,349,735	43,597	44,668	44,046	45,040
Fayetteville-Springdale-Rogers . . . . . . . . .	276,726	276,651	274,486	275,730	6,796	6,887	6,888	6,802
FortSmith ...........................	119,311	117,652	119,233	117,312	4,682	4,131	4,694	3,979
HotSprings ..........................	39,659	39,466	39,407	39,059	1,430	1,525	1,409	1,513
Jonesboro ...........................	64,419	64,921	64,371	64,823	1,769	1,813	1,771	1,807
Little Rock-North Little Rock-Conway . . . .	356,163	357,735	354,989	355,955	10,370	10,813	10,409	10,729
PineBluff ............................	35,481	34,800	35,299	34,607	1,535	1,636	1,562	1,673
California ..............................	19,374,412	19,630,287	19,383,662	19,715,573	816,310	780,216	812,588	777,497
Bakersfield ...........................	387,218	390,635	382,677	388,268	28,163	25,609	28,811	25,742
Chico ...............................	104,572	107,076	103,417	106,328	4,832	4,455	4,975	4,582
ElCentro ............................	73,265	75,204	73,729	75,958	14,215	14,323	13,550	13,765
Fresno ..............................	446,056	452,859	447,026	454,530	31,993	28,695	34,794	31,359
Hanford-Corcoran .....................	57,099	57,247	57,062	57,507	3,979	3,638	4,395	4,037
Los Angeles-Long Beach-Anaheim . . . . .	6,772,653	6,818,794	6,778,807	6,845,129	276,364	290,368	271,223	285,458
Madera ..............................	61,071	61,166	60,081	60,679	3,808	3,592	4,136	3,786
Merced ..............................	117,584	120,255	116,224	119,094	7,911	7,300	8,822	7,975
Modesto .............................	241,602	244,949	241,618	245,854	14,569	13,308	15,612	14,011
Napa ................................	74,992	75,216	72,316	72,912	2,357	1,962	2,444	1,998
Oxnard-Thousand Oaks-Ventura . . . . . . .	424,930	431,177	426,128	433,182	17,585	15,892	17,597	15,938
Redding .............................	75,115	76,551	74,290	76,066	3,581	3,290	3,629	3,331
Riverside-San Bernardino-Ontario . . . . . .	2,035,427	2,073,434	2,052,623	2,094,975	94,849	85,884	91,018	82,615
Sacramento--Roseville--Arden-Arcade. . .	1,083,818	1,096,309	1,086,082	1,104,404	42,857	38,634	42,169	38,437
Salinas ..............................	223,229	225,866	216,118	220,471	10,080	9,351	11,922	10,868
SanDiego-Carlsbad ..................	1,586,193	1,613,114	1,590,911	1,623,279	57,506	52,488	55,905	51,257
San Francisco-Oakland-Hayward . . . . . . .	2,580,850	2,622,928	2,586,405	2,643,307	76,921	68,766	73,821	66,687
San Jose-Sunnyvale-Santa Clara . . . . . . .	1,075,272	1,104,946	1,077,637	1,115,245	31,349	27,771	30,669	26,995
San Luis Obispo-Paso Robles-Arroyo
Grande ............................	142,747	145,145	142,972	145,730	4,494	3,997	4,414	3,943
Santa Cruz-Watsonville . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .	144,841	147,277	143,152	145,977	5,845	5,216	6,813	5,982
Santa Maria-Santa Barbara . . . . . . . . . . . .	219,620	220,060	217,985	219,920	8,157	7,369	8,494	7,472
SantaRosa ..........................	263,884	270,916	262,119	268,149	7,910	6,774	7,810	6,695
Stockton-Lodi ........................	326,507	332,413	324,104	332,319	18,985	17,271	19,962	18,256
Vallejo-Fairfield .......................	209,692	211,310	210,175	212,724	8,743	7,661	8,701	7,653
Visalia-Porterville .....................	201,257	204,843	201,885	206,612	18,379	17,053	18,705	17,769
YubaCity ............................	73,872	74,225	73,600	74,199	4,547	4,262	5,087	4,727
Colorado ..............................	3,034,052	3,118,588	3,032,759	3,123,331	83,759	96,332	87,030	105,604
Boulder ..............................	188,209	195,592	190,120	196,184	4,600	5,383	4,681	5,644
ColoradoSprings .....................	343,461	361,904	343,456	362,106	10,918	13,005	11,301	14,235
Denver-Aurora-Lakewood . . . . . . . . . . . . . .	1,610,520	1,650,347	1,612,353	1,651,676	43,429	49,478	44,586	53,827
FortCollins ..........................	199,844	205,381	198,303	205,976	4,787	5,506	4,875	5,910
GrandJunction .......................	75,467	76,691	75,316	76,572	2,574	2,748	2,704	3,100
Greeley ..............................	162,068	167,706	161,170	166,220	4,080	4,690	4,184	5,027
Pueblo ..............................	75,435	76,111	75,398	76,662	3,135	3,499	3,320	3,854
Connecticut ............................	1,900,360	1,915,283	1,902,380	1,925,885	78,219	73,396	77,595	58,407
Bridgeport-Stamford-Norwalk . . . . . . . . . . .	462,369	466,176	465,216	471,564	19,240	18,128	18,995	14,383
Danbury .............................	106,500	107,796	107,199	109,217	3,481	3,364	3,405	2,676
Hartford-West Hartford-East Hartford . . . .	624,664	629,534	623,725	632,038	25,671	24,022	25,554	19,127
NewHaven ..........................	326,224	329,167	326,159	329,574	13,480	12,475	13,284	9,839
See footnotes at end of table.

November
2017 2018p	2017
3.6	3.8	3.4	3.4
4.1	4.5	3.9	4.0
3.2	3.4	3.1	3.1
3.3	3.5	3.1	3.1
3.4	3.5	3.3	3.2
3.5	3.5	3.3	3.1
3.7	4.1	3.6	3.6
4.0	4.1	3.7	3.6
3.8	4.0	3.6	3.6
3.2	3.4	3.0	2.9
4.2	4.5	4.1	4.0
3.5	3.8	3.3	3.4
3.4	3.5	3.3	3.2
6.8	5.8	7.2	6.3
6.3	5.3	6.5	5.5
5.9	5.1	6.4	5.5
4.7	4.5	4.5	4.4
4.9	4.9	4.9	4.9
5.4	5.3	5.5	5.4
4.0	3.9	4.0	3.9
4.2	4.1	4.2	4.3
5.4	5.3	5.4	5.4
4.3	4.1	4.2	4.2
17.4	17.7	15.1	14.9
3.2	3.3	3.3	3.3
2.5	2.5	2.5	2.5
3.9	3.5	3.9	3.4
3.6	3.9	3.6	3.9
2.7	2.8	2.8	2.8
2.9	3.0	2.9	3.0
4.3	4.7	4.4	4.8
4.2	4.0	4.2	3.9
7.3	6.6	7.5	6.6
4.6	4.2	4.8	4.3
19.4	19.0	18.4	18.1
7.2	6.3	7.8	6.9
7.0	6.4	7.7	7.0
4.1	4.3	4.0	4.2
6.2	5.9	6.9	6.2
6.7	6.1	7.6	6.7
6.0	5.4	6.5	5.7
3.1	2.6	3.4	2.7
4.1	3.7	4.1	3.7
4.8	4.3	4.9	4.4
4.7	4.1	4.4	3.9
4.0	3.5	3.9	3.5
4.5	4.1	5.5	4.9
3.6	3.3	3.5	3.2
3.0	2.6	2.9	2.5
2.9	2.5	2.8	2.4
3.1	2.8	3.1	2.7
4.0	3.5	4.8	4.1
3.7	3.3	3.9	3.4
3.0	2.5	3.0	2.5
5.8	5.2	6.2	5.5
4.2	3.6	4.1	3.6
9.1	8.3	9.3	8.6
6.2	5.7	6.9	6.4
2.8	3.1	2.9	3.4
2.4	2.8	2.5	2.9
3.2	3.6	3.3	3.9
2.7	3.0	2.8	3.3
2.4	2.7	2.5	2.9
3.4	3.6	3.6	4.0
2.5	2.8	2.6	3.0
4.2	4.6	4.4	5.0
4.1	3.8	4.1	3.0
4.2	3.9	4.1	3.1
3.3	3.1	3.2	2.5
4.1	3.8	4.1	3.0
4.1	3.8	4.1	3.0

Percent of labor force October November 2018 2017 2018p

State and areaCivilian labor force October NovemberUnemployedNumberOctober