Performance summary* | 30 Sept 2017 |
NAV per share** (USD): | 0.95 |
Change (Quarter-on-quarter) | 1.1% |
Total NAV** (USD 'm): | 227.4 |
Share price (USD): | 0.81 |
Market cap (USD 'm): | 195.2 |
Premium/(discount) | -14.2% |
* Figures in USD. Return percentages are for the period, not annualized. Please note that NAV and share price figures in this report takes into consideration the capital distribution in June 2016. ** NAV and NAV per share data are calculated on a quarterly basis |
Manager's comment
As of 30 September 2017, VinaLand Limited (the "Company" or "VNL") posted an unaudited net asset value (NAV) of USD227.4 million or USD0.95 per share, an increase of 1.1% from the previous quarter's audited NAV per share of USD0.94. VNL's share price increased 4.8% to month-over-month to reach USD0.81, resulting in the company's share price to NAV discount to be 14.2% at the end of
the reported quarter.
As a result of a recent distribution of USD43 million through a tender offer that will be discussed in further detail below, the Company estimated on 23 October 2017, after adjusting for the distribution's accretive effect, that the pro forma NAV per share as at 30 September 2017 was USD0.9784.
Furthermore, the Company repurchased and cancelled 17.75 million ordinary shares during the third quarter of 2017, bringing the total number of cancelled ordinary shares since October 2011 to 259.73 million. The Company has cancelled 52.0% of the fund's total issued shares since the commencement of the share buyback program.
Portfolio information | 30 Sept 2017 |
Current assets | 12 |
Divestments | 34 |
Debt (fund and project level) | Nil |
Cash after future commitments (USD 'm) | 80 |
Shares outstanding | 240,237,620 |
Fund update
VNL announced on 9 October 2017 the result of its distribution of capital of up to USD60 million to shareholders through a tender offer to purchase Ordinary Shares of USD0.01 each in the Company. Based on the valid Tender Forms that were received by Standard Chartered Bank, 71.59% of the distribution of capital allocated, totaling USD42.95 million, was paid in the form of a cash payment. The tender offer was undersubscribed therefore tender applications were paid out in full to all shareholders who participated in the tender. Shareholders' accounts, including those held through Euroclear and/or Clearstream, were credited on/around the Settlement Date on Friday, 13 October 2017. The distribution of capital will result in an accretive effect on the NAV per ordinary share of approximately USD0.032 for shares remaining after the share buy-back cancellation. The accretive effect will be reflected in the VNL's NAV as at 31 December 2017.
VNL announced the divestment of its remaining stake in the My Gia township development project to a Vietnamese development company on 15 August 2017. The project, which was acquired by VNL in
Cumulative change (% change) | ||||
3mth | 1yr | 3yr | 5yr | |
NAV per share | 1.1 | 10.3 | 13.6 | -6.0 |
Share price | 4.8 | 23.4 | 67.3 | 111.4 |
2008, is located in the Khanh Hoa Province. The Company disposed of its entire remaining stake in the project to receive net proceeds of a further USD5.9 million. The total valuation was 0.7% above the 30 June 2017 unaudited NAV and 25.1% below the unaudited NAV at the time of VNL's extraordinary meeting (EGM) in November 2016.
Additionally, VNL announced on 07 September 2017 that it had divested its entire stake in the
Vina Square project in Ho Chi Minh City. The project consists of a total land area of approximately 3.0 hectares and was acquired by VNL in 2007, at which time the land was designated as a future development site. VNL divested its stake in the project for net proceeds of approximately USD41.2
NAV, share price performance and buy back activity55.00
VNL shares repurchased (millions)
Key investments | |||
Project | Location | Type | % portfolio NAV |
Pavilion Square | South | Mixed Use | 20.8% |
Aqua City | South | Township | 18.8% |
Green Park Estate | South | Mixed Use | 15.5% |
Trinity Garden | South | Residential | 14.1% |
Capital Square | Central | Mixed Use | 12.8% |
Phu Hoi City | South | Residential | 9.7% |
Total | 91.7% |
50.00
45.00
40.00
35.00
30.00
25.00
20.00
15.00
10.00
5.00
0.00
VNL share repurchased (millions) VNL NAVps VNL share price
1.00
Share price and NAVps (USD)
0.90
0.80
0.70
0.60
0.50
0.40
VNL portfolio by sector (NAV %) VNL NAV by sector (USDm)200.0
3.9%
Residential Mixed Use Township Hospitality
18.8%
50.6%
26.7%
150.0
100.0
50.0
-
Hospitality Township Mixed Use Residential
Total Investment NAV
million, which includes the repayment of loans from shareholders. The total valuation was recorded at 0.3% above the 30 June 2017 unaudited NAV and 13.5% above the unaudited NAV at the time of the Company's EGM in November 2016.
These divestments were made in accordance with the Company's current stated policy to divest projects in a controlled and orderly manner, indicating that steady progress has been made with further pipeline disposals. The proceeds received from these disposals, in conjunction with collections from earlier disposals including prepayment advances for future pipeline disposals, will be used to cover VNL's commitments including operating costs, capital contributions and further distributions to shareholders.
VNL project revaluations were undertaken for the period ending 30 September 2017, including a project appraised by international valuation consultants and another project appraised by the Company's Valuation Committee. These projects, which are in the central and southern regions of Vietnam, experienced favorable valuations because of a steady market and increased confidence in real estate across the country during the third quarter of 2017.
Additionally, VinaCapital, the Investment Manager, held its annual Investor Conference from 11 to 13 October 2017 in Ho Chi Minh City where the Company presented an update which included details on the progress of project disposals and distributions to shareholders in addition to a proposed future strategy. This presentation is available for download.
On a final note, the Annual General Meeting (AGM) will be held on 10 November 2017 at the Zunfthaus Zur Waag, Zunftstube Room, 2nd Floor, Munsterhof 8, CH-8001 Zurich, Switzerland and will commence at 11:30 a.m. (local time). The formal business of the AGM will be preceded at 10:00 a.m. by arrival and
registration of attendees and an update from the investment Manager on the investment environment in Vietnam and on the portfolio.
Macroeconomic CommentaryVietnam's gross domestic product (GDP) grew 6.4% y-o-y in the first nine months of 2017 (9M17), exceeding consensus expectations, and therefore effectively placing the government's GDP growth target of 6.7% back within reach. This acceleration was driven by an increase in manufacturing activities during the year, and real retail sales growth reaching 9.2% y-o-y in 9M17. Notably, according to AC Nielsen, Vietnam's consumer confidence currently achieved a five-year high. Furthermore, the reduction of Vietnam's trade deficit from approximately 2.6% of the GDP in the first half of the year to approximately 0.3% of the GDP in 9M17 was driven by exports growing 20%, the fastest growth in five years.
Manufacturing growth accelerated to an estimated 16% growth rate in the third quarter, driven by a 13% y-o-y increase in foreign direct investment (FDI) inflows to USD12.5 billion in 9M17, and by the launch of new, large industrial facilities, including Formosa's mega-steel mill. Manufacturing growth was previously restrained in the first quarter relating to the Samsung Galaxy Note 7 smartphone issues, but the group's production rebounded in the third quarter.
Outside of manufacturing, improvements in the services and agricultural sectors contributed to the country's GDP growth rate. Vietnam's services sector (41% of the GDP) improved from 6.7% in 9M16 to 7.3% in 9M17, and was bolstered by a 30% y-o-y increase in tourist arrivals. Furthermore, agricultural output growth reached 2.8% in 9M17, reflecting a tremendous improvement after a severe draught constrained agricultural output in 2016.
GDP's growth, however, continues to be weighed down by a circa 13% decline in oil production volume, which in effect, exacerbated the falling output in the mining sector; a drop of 8% y-o-y in 9M17.
Finally, Vietnam's macroeconomy continued to show a high degree of stability in September. The unofficial USD/VND exchange rate was essentially unchanged during the month, and both headline and core CPI inflation were unchanged from August at 3.4% y-o-y and 1.3% increases respectively, despite two fuel prices that lifted retail petrol prices by over 3% in September - or by nearly 13% since mid-July (local petro prices were hiked five times since 20 July 2017).
7.0
6.0
5.0
4.0
3.0
2.0
1.0
0.0
60
55
50
45
40
30.0
25.0
20.0
15.0
10.0
5.0
0.0
1,500
1,000
500
- (500)
(1,000)
(1,500)
(2,000)
Feb-15 Mar-15 Apr-15 May-15 Jun-15 Jul-15 Aug-15
Sep-15 Oct-15 Nov-15 Dec-15 Jan-16 Feb-16 Mar-16 Apr-16 May-16 Jun-16 Jul-16 Aug-16
Sep-16 Oct-16 Nov-16 Dec-16 Jan-17 Feb-17 Mar-17 Apr-17 May-17 Jun-17 Jul-17 Aug-17
Sep-17
(2,500)
Quarterly GDP growth (%)Mar Jun Sep Dec Mar Jun Sep Dec Mar Jun Sep Dec Mar Jun Sep Dec Mar Jun Sep Dec Mar Jun Sep 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
Purchasing Managers' Indexexpanding
Dec-12 Mar-13 Jun-13 Sep-13 Dec-13
Mar-14
Jun-14
Sep-14
Dec-14 Mar-15
Jun-15
Sep-15
Dec-15
Mar-16
Jun-16
Sep-16
Dec-16 Mar-17
Jun-17
Sep-17
Registered and disbursed FDI (USDbn)Jan-16 Feb-16 Mar-16 Apr-16 May-16 Jun-16 Jul-16 Aug-16 Sep-16 Oct-16 Nov-16
Dec-16 Jan-17 Feb-17 Mar-17 Apr-17 May-17 Jun-17 Jul-17 Aug-17
Sep-17
Disbursed (YTD) Registered (YTD)
Monthly trade balance (USDm)Macroeconomic indicators | ||||
2016 | Sep-17 | 2017 YTD | YTD Y-O-Y | |
GDP growth1 | 6.2% | 6.4% | ||
Inflation (%) | 4.7% | 0.6 | 1.8 | 3.4% |
FDI commitments (USDbn) | 24.4 | 2.1 | 25.5 | 34.3% |
FDI disbursements (USDbn) | 15.8 | 2.2 | 12.5 | 13.4% |
Imports (USDbn) | 174.1 | 18.2 | 154.0 | 22.7% |
Exports (USDbn) | 176.6 | 19.3 | 154.3 | 20.0% |
Trade surplus/(deficit) (USDbn) | 2.5 | 1.1 | 0.3 | |
Exchange rate (USD/VND) | 22,720 | 22,690 | 0.1% | |
Sources: GSO, Vietnam Customs, SBV, VCB l 1. Annualised rate, updated quarterly |
YoY CPI
MoM C
Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec | Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec | Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec | Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec | Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep |
8 1.2
71.0
0.8
6
0.6
50.4
4 0.2
30.0
(0.2)
2
(0.4)
1(0.6)
- (0.8)
2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
YoY CPI MoM CPI
Source: GSO, Vietnam Customs, Bloomberg
Current strategyFollowing the outcome of the 2016 AGM and EGM, the Investment Manager is continuing with the orderly realisation of the Company's investment portfolio enabling further distributions to shareholders. Proceeds received from disposals less future commitments (distributable proceeds) will be used for distributions to shareholders via a range of methods including but not limited to share buybacks and re-purchase of shares via tender offers while the trading discount is equal to or greater than 15% of NAV per ordinary share. In addition, if considered appropriate, the Board may also consider making capital distributions by way of returns of capital from the Company's share capital and additional paid in capital. In all cases, the appropriate method of returning distributable proceeds to shareholders will remain at the discretion of the Board.
Disposals and Distributions post November 2015 EGMNAV at exit (USDm) Net proceeds to VNL (USDm) Cumulative distribution value post November 2015 EGM
USD208.4m
(inclusive of USD43m of tender offer)
220
200
180
160
Tender Offer (USD40m)
140
120
100
80
Capital return (USD35m) + Buy-back (USD3.8m)
60
40
20
0
Project Marina
Project C21
Project Golf
HBT
Court
Project Pham Hung
Resort Project
Project Ceana
Project BD
Dai Phuoc Lotus Project
Times Square Project
My Gia Project
Vina Square Project
Nov-15
Apr-16
May-16
May-16
May-16
Jun-16
Aug-16
Nov -16
Jan-17
Apr-17
May-17 Aug-17 Sep-17 Oct 17
Post EGM (November 2015)Full Divestments | Project Marina | Project C21 | Project Golf | HBT Court | Project Pham Hung | Resort Project | Project Ceana | Project BD | Dai Phuoc Lotus Project | Times Square Project | My Gia Project | Vina Square Project |
Exit Date | Apr-16 | May-16 | May-16 | May-16 | June-16 | Aug-16 | Nov-16 | Jan-17 | Apr-17 | May-17 | Aug-17 | Sep-17 |
NAV at exit (USDm)1 | 1.3 | 75.2 | 37.5 | 0.6 | 16.3 | 7.0 | 6.7 | 13.2 | 43.9 | 34.1 | 11.4 | 41.1 |
Net proceeds to VNL (USDm)2 | 1.3 | 75.4 | 37.5 | 0.5 | 16.2 | 7.0 | 7.6 | 10.9 | 48.8 | 41.0 | 11.4 | 41.2 |
Net proceeds v.s NAV (%) | 0.4% | 0.2% | 0.0% | -11.0% | -0.2% | -1.0% | 12.9% | -17.4% | 11.2% | 20.4% | 0.4% | 0.3% |
NAV at EGM (USDm)3 | 2.5 | 63.5 | 40.1 | 1.1 | 9.6 | 21.0 | 13.2 | 15.0 | 40.1 | 27.7 | 13.1 | 36.3 |
Net proceeds v.s NAV at EGM (Adjusted) (%) | -49.2% | 18.8% | -6.4% | -52.1% | 69.8% | -66.8% | -42.5% | -27.2% | 21.8% | 48.1% | -12.9% | 13.5% |
All "NAV at exit" figures are based on most recent audited numbers prior to the exit date.
Net proceeds from exit include all transfers of money between the fund and project companies, including dividends, shareholder loans, and capital contributions.
For comparison purposes, the NAV has been adjusted for subsequent investments and returns. For all disposals up to Project Ceana, the 2012 EGM NAV has been reported while all disposals from Project BD use the 2016 EGM NAV.
Vietnam's gross domestic product (GDP) growth rate accelerated from 6.3% in the second quarter of this year (2Q17) to 7.5% in the reported quarter (3Q17) due to the significant contributions from the processing and manufacturing industries and a significant increase in exports. The State Bank of
Vietnam issued a decision to cut policy interest rates by 25 basis points (bps) and the policy decision is expected to lift Vietnam's GDP growth rate towards the government's 6.7% goal for 2017. As at 30 September 2017, the Ministry of Planning and Investment reported that the total registered foreign direct investment (FDI) into the real estate sector reached nearly USD1,142 million, up approximately 13.8% against the same period last year. The Vietnam Dong (VND) remained stable despite the Fed rate hike as the Vietnamese government continues to maintain foreign currency reserves that is reported to be USD45 billion.
Because of continued momentum in the local real estate market and improving foreign interest, market conditions and deal activity in the real estate sector continued to remain steady during the first nine months of 2017. Nevertheless, banks reached their credit limits, per revised Circular 36, on 01 January 2017 and developers are now experiencing difficulty in borrowing for real estate investments. Furthermore, there are some indications that an over-supply in the condominium
sector is beginning to impact sales rates in the market, an imbalance which may increase gradually in the coming years.
Landed property sectorAccording to CBRE Vietnam, an additional 1,500 units in Ho Chi Minh City and Hanoi were launched in the third quarter of 2017. Due to limited supply, average selling prices in both cities increased by 20-30% year-on-year during the reported quarter. Newly launched supply enjoyed steady absorption rates in all segments, ranging from 55-65%. Townhouses accounted for 60-65% of new launched units during the quarter. Landed property sector in recent years have seen steadily rising numbers
of purchasers; in particular, demand for landed property in gated communities or in fast-developing residential areas of non-CBD-locations continues to attract new buyers, therefore providing high absorption rates and high return for developers. Furthermore, these developments can offer buyers attractive landscaping, amenities, as well as a greater sense of privacy. Developments from local developers such as Khang Dien House and Nam Long Company, have seen good sales within a short time after launch, given their reasonable price.
Condominium sectorCBRE reported that during the third quarter of 2017, an additional 16,082 units in Ho Chi Minh City and Hanoi were launched, a decline of 20% year-on-year. The mid-end segment with primary
prices from USD800 to USD1,500 per sqm recorded the most impressive performance in terms of the number of units sold and primary selling price. Sales momentum in both cities decreased between
3-10% year-on-year. Even with the decrease in condominium launches in this quarter, new projects are expected to launch into the market by the end of 2017, particularly
high-end and luxury condominium units. Oversupply in some areas of the condominium sector are beginning to impact sales rates in the market, an imbalance which is expected to gradually increase in the coming years.
Retail sectorFixed supply in Ho Chi Minh City and Hanoi allowed landlords to slightly increase rental prices during the third quarter. During the reported quarter, Vincom Centre Dong Khoi in Ho Chi Minh City welcomed the first H&M (Hennes & Mauritz AB) store, an international fashion retailer, to the local market. This tenant occupied over 3,000 sqm of floor area on the first and medium level. H&M also
selected Hanoi to open its second store in Vietnam in the coming quarters. Also at Vincom Centre of Ho Chi Minh City, Pull & Bear, Stradivarius and Massimo Dutti from Spain opened their first fashion stores this September. As a result, youth focused mass fashion continued to dominate the new tenant market during the third quarter of 2017.
Office sectorThe grand opening of Saigon Centre Phase 2 in Ho Chi Minh City added a total of 32,000sqm to the office market during the reported quarter. Due to the developer's aggressive pre-commitment
campaign, the building achieved approximately an 85% occupancy rate. New supply in office building in Saigon lowered rental prices in the southern city while fixed supply currently holds Hanoi's
market in balance. Expansion and relocation to newer buildings continues and leasing enquires are increasing for spaces from 300sqm to 700sqm.
Vinaland Ltd. published this content on 07 November 2017 and is solely responsible for the information contained herein.
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