Lleidanetworks Serveis Telemàtics S A : Checkpoint · May 2024

Lleida.netBUY

The signals, the signals !!! … the rebound continues

Analyst: Guillermo Serrano - [e-mail]

Following a good set of 1Q24 results, lleida.net published last week a 4-month trading update that comes to consolidate the positive trends already seen during the start of the year.

We have isolated and compared just the month of April 24 vs April 23 with 1Q24 vs 1Q23 to conclude the signals remain positive, reaffirming our expectations for the whole of 2024.

A 33% increase in Sales during April 2024 vs a 7% in 1Q24 vs 1Q23. The most noteworthy among the divisions is the strong ICX recovery of +75% in April compared with a 34% decline throughout 2023.

Software services (Contracting, Notification and Other SaaS) started the first quarter of the year with 4% decline, to then recover some 13% in April compared to last year. Similar trend seen in SMS Solutions with a 16% revenue increase in April.

On the operating costs side, the good news continues as well. April saw a 15% decline and the monthly cash Opex was slightly below the average of the 1Q24, which suggests that costs remain under control.

lleida.net is proving it can now begin to do more with less, which is positive for shareholders.

We are maintaining our 12-18 month price target of €3.00, which would place the stock on a 2025 EV/Ebitda (cash) multiple of 20x to reflect our unchanged estimates.

We fundamentally believe that Lleida.net remains a sound SaaS play with a strong franchise in the SMS space.

7am, 27th May 2024*

Equities

BME Growth

Price (5pm 6/5/24): €1,32

RIC: LLN.MC

Target Price (12-18 m): €3.00

52-Wk range (€):	1.83 - 0.80
Cap. Bur. (€ millones):	21,2
No. Shares (millions):	16,05
Avg. daily Vol. (€,12m):	48k
Daily volatility (avg. LTM):	4,7%

Price Chart (12 months)

This report was written by Checkpoint Partners (España) S.L.U.

*Date of publication and elaboration of this report

Stronger reported April 24 numbers compared to 1Q24

Lleida Net has published accumulated numbers for the first four months of the year, and we have just subtracted the announced numbers with the first quarter to arrive at the single April performance.

The positive trend points towards better 2Q24 results, which should provide greater confidence to our forecasts.

Source: LLN, Checkpoint partners

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Profit and Loss Account 2023-2026e

Source: LLN, Checkpoint partners

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Balance Sheet 2023-2026e

• The Net Financial Debt forecasts takes into account the €1.1million owed in shares to InDenova´s selling shareholders and held bylleida.netas Treasury Stock.

Source: LLN, Checkpoint partners

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Checkpoint Recommendation System

The Checkpoint Recommendation System is based on absolute returns, measured by the upside potential (including dividends and capital reimbursement) over a 12-month time horizon. Checkpoint recommendations (or ratings) for each stock comprises 3 categories: Buy (B),

Neutral (N) and Sell (S).

Buy: the stock is expected to generate total return of over 15% during the next 12 months time horizon

Neutral: the stock is expected to generate total return of -15% to +15% during the next 12 months time

Sell: the stock is expected to generate total return under -15% during the next 12 months time horizon.

History of recommendations

Date	Recommen.	Price (€)	Target P.(€)	Period	Analyst
16.03.2018	BUY	0,84	1,13	12 months	Guillermo Serrano
17.03.2018	BUY	1.11	1.53	12 months	Guillermo Serrano
17.07.2018	BUY	1.15	1.53	12 months	Guillermo Serrano
17.10.2018	BUY	1.03	1.53	12 months	Guillermo Serrano
24.01.2019	BUY	1.06	1.53	12 months	Guillermo Serrano
24.04.2019	BUY	0.92	1.40	12 months	Guillermo Serrano
23.07.2019	BUY	0.87	1.40	12 months	Guillermo Serrano
21.10.2019	BUY	1.01	1.60	12 months	Guillermo Serrano
21.01.2020	BUY	1.35	1.80	12 months	Guillermo Serrano
21.04.2020	BUY	1.75	3.00	12 months	Guillermo Serrano
21.07.2020	BUY	4,34	6.00	12 months	Guillermo Serrano
26.10.2020	BUY	8,90	12.00	12 months	Guillermo Serrano
26.01.2021	BUY	6.00	11.35	12 months	Guillermo Serrano
20.04.2021	BUY	6.28	11.15	12 months	Guillermo Serrano
22.07.2021	BUY	5.59	11.15	12 months	Guillermo Serrano
11.11.2021	BUY	4.38	9.00	12 months	Guillermo Serrano
22.02.2022	BUY	3.24	9.00	12 months	Guillermo Serrano
04.05.2022	BUY	4.06	9.00	12 months	Guillermo Serrano
11.08.2022	BUY	2.50	7.50	12 months	Guillermo Serrano
25.10.2022	BUY	1.84	6.00	12 months	Guillermo Serrano
09.03.2023	BUY	2.27	5.00	12 months	Guillermo Serrano
10.05.2023	BUY	1.64	5.00	12 months	Guillermo Serrano
05.09.2023	BUY	1.15	3.00	12 months	Guillermo Serrano

Checkpoint does and seeks to do business with companies covered in its research reports. As a result, investors may take the view this could affect the objectivity of the report and therefore should consider this report as only a single factor in making their investment decision.

Frequency of analyst reports:at present Checkpoint has committed to a quarterly update of Lleida.net financial and operational performance.

Investment horizon:our reports focus mainly on small capitalization and illiquid stocks where standard Venture Capital investment criteria should apply. An investment into a small market capitalization stock should be done on a 3-5 year time horizon in order to realized the full potential of the investment opportunity.

Disclaimer:

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Checkpoint Partners (Spain) SLU [Checkpoint] is a financial advisory firm primarily specializing in the technology sector. Further information can be obtained from our website www.checkpointp.com or by writing to us at [e-mail].

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