Cincinnati Financial Corporation provided earnings guidance for the fourth-quarter 2022. For the period, the company's consolidated fourth-quarter results are expected to include pretax catastrophe losses of approximately $141 million – representing an impact on the fourth-quarter 2022 combined ratio of approximately 7.8 percentage points, based on estimated property casualty earned premiums. The company's 5-year historical average contribution of catastrophe losses to the combined ratio is 3.9 percentage points for the fourth quarter. The catastrophe loss estimate includes $161 million from Winter Storm Elliott, net of reinsurance and excluding any effects of reinstatement premiums assumed or ceded, in addition to less severe storms and favorable loss reserve development on previous catastrophe events, primarily ones that occurred in 2022. The estimate for total fourth-quarter 2022 catastrophe losses incurred includes approximately $100 million for the commercial lines insurance segment; $38 million for the personal lines insurance segment; $2 million for the excess and surplus lines insurance segment and $1 million in total for Cincinnati Re® and Cincinnati Global Underwriting LtdSM.  Estimated losses and expenses from catastrophe-related claims are expected to bring the company's fourth-quarter 2022 property casualty combined ratio to approximately 95%.

The combined ratio before catastrophe losses for the quarter was approximately 2.5 percentage points better than that ratio for the first nine months of 2022 but continued to reflect increased uncertainty of estimated ultimate losses, due in part to elevated paid losses reflecting economic or other forms of inflation. Net written premium growth is estimated to be approximately 10% for the quarter.