First Quarter Results Conference Call
May 5, 2021
Safe Harbor Statement
Note to Our Investors
This presentation contains forward-lookingstatements. Forward-looking statements include, without limitation, any statement that predicts, forecasts, indicates or implies future results, performance, liquidity levels or achievements, and may contain the words " believe,"" anticipate,"" expect,"" estimate,"" intend,"" project," "plan," "will be, "be, "will likely continue, "continue," "will likely result" or words or phrases of similar meaning. Forward-looking statements involve risks and uncertainties that may cause our business, strategy, or actual results to differ materially from the forward-looking statements. The forward-looking statements in this presentation include statements about our strategic imperatives and priorities, and our focus thereon; our ability to capitalize on our geographic footprint to grow our national dealer and home center customer markets; our local entrepreneurial initiatives; our focus on reducing non-essential costs and our ability to, and the potential success of, investing in resources to support strategic sales growth; our market and business outlook, including the outlook for the residential housing construction markets, and trends in wood-based commodity prices; trends in deurbanization, housing inventory and prices; trends in residential repair and remodel activity; the influence of wood-based commodity price inflation on specialty product sales; our efforts to manage commodity price volatility and the potential success thereof; and the COVID-19 pandemic and our response thereto, including statements about the potential trajectory of the pandemic and its potential effects.
Forward-looking statements in this presentation are based on estimates and assumptions made by our management that, although believed by us to be reasonable, are inherently uncertain. Forward-looking statements involve risks and uncertainties that may cause our business, strategy, or actual results to differ materially from the forward-looking statements. These risks and uncertainties include those discussed in greater detail in our filings with the Securities and Exchange Commission. We operate in a changing environment in which new risks can emerge from time to time. It is not possible for management to predict all of these risks, nor can it assess the extent to which any factor, or a combination of factors, may cause our business, strategy, or actual results to differ materially from those contained in forward-looking statements. Factors that may cause these differences include, among other things: pricing and product cost variability; volumes of product sold; changes in the prices, supply, and/or demand for products that we distribute; the cyclical nature of the industry in which we operate; housing market conditions; the COVID-19 pandemic and other contagious illness outbreaks and their potential effects on our industry; effective inventory management relative to our sales volume or the prices of the products we produce; information technology security risks and business interruption risks; increases in petroleum prices; consolidation among competitors, suppliers, and customers; disintermediation risk; loss of products or key suppliers and manufacturers; our dependence on international suppliers and manufacturers for certain products; business disruptions; exposure to product liability and other claims and legal proceedings related to our business and the products we distribute; natural disasters, catastrophes, fire, or other unexpected events; successful implementation of our strategy; wage increases or work stoppages by our union employees; costs imposed by federal, state, local, and other regulations; compliance costs associated with federal, state, and local environmental protection laws; our level of indebtedness and our ability to incur additional debt to fund future needs; the risk that our cash flows and capital resources may be insufficient to service our existing or future indebtedness; the covenants of the instruments governing our indebtedness limiting the discretion of our management in operating our business; the fact that we lease many of our distribution centers, and we would still be obligated under these leases even if we close a leased distribution center; changes in our product mix; shareholder activism; potential acquisitions and the integration and completion of such acquisitions; the possibility that the value of our deferred tax assets could become impaired; changes in our expected annual effective tax rate could be volatile; the costs and liabilities related to our participation in multi-employer pension plans could increase; the possibility that we could be the subject of securities class action litigation due to stock price volatility; and changes in, or interpretation of, accounting principles. Given these risks and uncertainties, we caution you not to place undue reliance on forward-looking statements. We expressly disclaim any obligation to update or revise any forward-looking statement as a result of new information, future events or otherwise, except as required by law.
Non-GAAPFinancial Measures. BlueLinx reports its financial results in accordance with accounting principles generally accepted in the United States ("GAAP"). We also believe that presentation of certain non-GAAP measures, such as Adjusted EBITDA, net debt, the ratio of our total net debt to Adjusted EBITDA, and free cash flow, may be useful to investors and may provide a more complete understanding of the factors and trends affecting the business than using reported GAAP results alone. Explanations of these non-GAAP measures are included in the accompanying Appendix to this presentation, and any non-GAAP measures used herein are reconciled herein or in the financial tables in the Appendix to their most directly comparable GAAP measures. We caution that non-GAAP measures should be considered in addition to, but not as a substitute for, our reported GAAP results.
Immaterial Rounding Differences. Immaterial rounding adjustments and differences may exist between slides, press releases, and previously issued presentations.
This presentation and the associated remarks made during this conference call are integrally related and are intended to be presented and understood together.
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Executive Summary
First Quarter 2021 Performance
Market Conditions
- Single-familyresidential housing remains strong. Q1 single-familyhousing starts continue to be well below prior cyclical peak in 2005. Mortgage rates, low housing inventory, deurbanization, and improving employment conditions currently fuel housing start trends
- Commodity wood prices at historic levels. Framing Lumber increased 56% & Structural Panel prices increased 78% in Apr-21compared to Dec-20,continuing to rise given ongoing strong residential demand and production constraints
-
Builders' Confidence Index remains elevated. NAHB Builders' Confidence Index
65% above the 20-year average at 83 as of Apr-21; anticipate double digit percent growth in SFHS in 2021 - Remodeling activity continues to improve. LIRA Index and NAHB RMI both indicate continued R&R momentum with LIRA reaching record levels in Q1
- Economic measures trending positively. Employment conditions improving; national unemployment rate down in March to 6.2%, a 30-basispoint improvement from December. The rate on a 30-yearfixed rate mortgage continues to stay at historically low levels
Note: All comparisons versus the prior-year period unless otherwise noted
Company Performance
- Record first quarter results. Record operating income, net income and Adjusted EBITDA, driven by higher commodity wood prices, specialty products margin expansion, and operational effectiveness
- Significant leverage reduction while enhancing liquidity. Reduced bank debt outstanding by $101 million year over year; Paid off Term Loan in full eliminating higher interest debt; Excess availability and cash increased to $238 million as of quarter end
- Broad-basedsales increase. Specialty and Structural product net sales higher by 34% and 92%, respectively
- Margin expansion across both product categories. Total gross margin +350 bps to 17.6%; Record specialty products gross margin +290 bps to 19.3%; Structural products gross margin +540 bps to 15.5%
-
Disciplined cost controls. Cost containment efforts from 2020 sustained through
Q1' 21 - Improved profitability. Net income increased $63 million; earnings per diluted share of $6.28 vs. $(0.08) in prior year period; Adjusted EBITDA of $107 million, up $87 million
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Single-Family Housing Demand
Our business is correlated to single-family housing starts (SFHS)
- 2021 SFHS forecasted at 1.2 million units, 12% above 50-year average; expected growth over next 3 years(1)
- Months of supply for new and existing home inventory 38% below the 20-year average, builder confidence remains near the Nov-20all-time high
- Average U.S. home prices currently 6% higher than a year ago; anticipate double-digit % growth for full year 2021(1)
- Low mortgage rates continue to support market growth
Total U.S. Single Family Housing Starts | Total U.S. Monthly Single-Family Residential Home Supply | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Housing starts in thousands(1) | Months of inventory(2) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
2,000 | 14 | Single-family residential home supply is 38% below the 20-year average | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
1,800 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
1,600 | 2021 SFHS annual estimate ~33% below the | 12 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
1,400 | prior cyclical peak achieved in 2005 | 10 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
1,200 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
8 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
1,000 | 50-year average | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
800 | 6 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
20-year average | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
600 | 4 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
400 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
2 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
200 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
- | 0 | 2016 | 2021 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
2000 | 2001 | 2002 | 2003 | 2004 | 2005 | 2006 | 2007 | 2008 | 2009 | 2010 | 2011 | 2012 | 2013 | 2014 | 2015 | 2016 | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021E | 2022E | 2023E | 2024E | 2000 | 2001 | 2002 | 2003 | 2004 | 2005 | 2006 | 2007 | 2008 | 2009 | 2010 | 2011 | 2012 | 2013 | 2014 | 2015 | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 |
30 Year Fixed Mortgage Rate | NAHB "Builders' Confidence" Market Index | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
18.0% | 16.6% | Composite index(3) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
100 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
16.0% | Builders' confidence reached a 35-yearhigh in Nov-20 and remains elevated | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
90 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
14.0% | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
80 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
12.0% | 70 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
10.0% | 60 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
8.0% | 40-year average | 50 | 20-year average | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
6.0% | 40 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
30 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
4.0% | 3.2% | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
20 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
2.0% | 10 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.0% | 1980 | 1982 | 1984 | 1986 | 1988 | 1990 | 1992 | 1994 | 1996 | 1998 | 2000 | 2002 | 2004 | 2006 | 2008 | 2010 | 2012 | 2014 | 2016 | 2018 | 2020 | 0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||
2021P | 2023P | 2000 | 2001 | 2002 | 2003 | 2004 | 2005 | 2006 | 2007 | 2008 | 2009 | 2010 | 2011 | 2012 | 2013 | 2014 | 2015 | 2016 | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 |
- Source: Historical data is U.S. Census Bureau; Forecast: John Burns Real Estate Consulting, LLC subject limitations and disclaimers - not for redistribution
- Source: U.S. Census Bureau. The months' supply is the ratio of houses for sale to houses sold. This statistic provides an indication of the size of the for-sale inventory in relation to the number of houses currently being sold. The months' supply indicates how long the current for-sale inventory would last given the current sales rate if no additional new houses were built.
- Source: NAHB. The NAHB Housing Market Index (HMI) is based on a monthly survey of NAHB members designed to take the pulse of the single-family housing market. The survey asks respondents to rate market conditions for the sale of new homes at the present time and in the next six months as well as the traffic of prospective buyers of new homes.
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Residential Repair & Remodel Activity Remains Healthy
U.S. Installed base of more than 125 million homes expected by the end of 2021
Total Installed Base of U.S. Homes, Including Renter and | U.S. Private Residential Construction Put-In-Place (CPP) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||
• | U.S. Homes installed base | Owner-Occupied Homes | Dollars in millions(2) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||
Homes in millions(1) | $1,400 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||
forecasted to continue it's rise | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||
$1,200 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||
supporting both residential | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||
129 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||
construction and repair and | 128 | $1,000 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||
remodel end markets | 127 | $800 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||
126 | $600 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||
• CPP and remodeling data indicate | 125 | $400 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||
124 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||
continued elevating R&R activity, | $200 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||
123 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||
with the LIRA index at record | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||
122 | $0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||
levels | 121 | 2002 | 2003 | 2004 | 2005 | 2006 | 2007 | 2008 | 2009 | 2010 | 2011 | 2012 | 2013 | 2014 | 2015 | 2016 | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | ||||||
120 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||
• | Monitoring commodity price | 119 | LIRA Remodeling Activity Index | ||||||||||||||||||||||||
118 118 | TTM Moving Total - Dollars in Billions(3) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||
inflation impact on future R&R | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||
117 | $400 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||
activity | 116 117 | $350 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||
• Existing home sales remain | $300 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||
$250 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||
elevated generating an optimistic | $200 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||
outlook on R&R spend | $150 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||
$100 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||
$50 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||
$0 | 2Q02 1Q03 | 4Q06 3Q07 | 2Q11 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||
1Q00 4Q00 | 3Q01 | 4Q03 | 3Q04 2Q05 | 1Q06 | 2Q08 1Q09 | 4Q09 | 3Q10 | 1Q12 | 4Q12 | 3Q13 | 2Q14 | 1Q15 | 4Q15 | 3Q16 | 2Q17 | 1Q18 | 4Q18 | 3Q19 2Q20 | 1Q21 (P) | 4Q21 (P) |
- Source: HIRL Research; updated annually
- Source: Historical data is from the U.S. Census Bureau; The Value of Construction Put in Place Survey (VIP) provides monthly estimates of the total dollar value of construction work done in the U.S. The survey covers construction work done each month on new structures or improvements to existing structures for private and public sectors.
- Source: Joint Center for Housing Studies at Harvard University. The Leading Indicator of Remodeling Activity (LIRA) provides a short-term outlook of national home improvement and repair spending to owner-occupied homes. The indicator, measured as an annual rate-of-change of its components, is designed to project the annual rate of change in spending for the current quarter and subsequent four quarters, and is intended to help identify future turning points in the business cycle of the home improvement and repair industry.
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BlueLinx Holdings Inc. published this content on 04 May 2021 and is solely responsible for the information contained therein. Distributed by Public, unedited and unaltered, on 04 May 2021 23:38:03 UTC.