BANCOLOMBIA S.A. Breakfast with Bancolombia
Equities Bancolombia - Tables & Graphics
Economic, Industry and Market Research | January 10, 2020 |
Breakfast with Bancolombia
Equity Market
COLCAP Index Performance | LATAM Markets Performance* |
1.800
1.700
1.600
1.500
1.400
1.300
INDEX | Close | 1 Day | YTD | YTD | 1 YR | 1 YR |
USD | USD | |||||
COLCAP | 1.654 | -0,2% | -0,5% | 0,3% | 20,0% | 15,5% |
BOVESPA | 115.947 | -0,3% | 0,3% | -1,5% | 23,9% | 11,9% |
IPSA | 4.898 | -0,2% | 4,9% | 2,8% | -7,0% | -17,9% |
SPBLPGPT | 20.420 | 0,2% | -0,8% | -1,0% | 4,4% | 4,8% |
1.200 | MEXBOL | 44.572 | 0,2% | 2,1% | 2,3% | 2,1% | 4,1% | ||||||
Jan-17 | Jul-17 | Jan-18 | Jul-18 | Jan-19 | Jul-19 | ||||||||
Source: Grupo Bancolombia, Bloomberg. | Source: Grupo Bancolombia, Bloomberg. | ||||||||||||
*To last night's closing level | |||||||||||||
Colcap vs Andean Region | Colcap vs Bovespa & Mexbol | ||||||||||||
Colcap | IPSA | SPBLPGPT | ||
130 | ||||
120 | ||||
110 | ||||
100 | ||||
90 | ||||
80 | ||||
Jan-19 | Apr-19 | Jul-19 | Oct-19 | Jan-20 |
Source: Grupo Bancolombia, Bloomberg
Colcap | Bovespa | Mexbol | ||
130 | ||||
120 | ||||
110 | ||||
100 | ||||
90 | ||||
Jan-19 | Apr-19 | Jul-19 | Oct-19 | Jan-20 |
Source: Grupo Bancolombia, Bloomberg
Colcap Top Advancers* | Colcap Top Decliners* | |
Equity | Precio de | Variación |
cierre | diaria | |
Éxito | 13.600 | 1,5% |
Bogota | 87.120 | 1,3% |
Corficol | 31.900 | 1,3% |
Aval pf | 1.460 | 1,0% |
Cemargos pref | 5.550 | 0,9% |
Equity | Closing Price | Daily |
Variation | ||
Promigas | 8.000 | -2,9% |
Bancolombia pref | 44.540 | -2,3% |
Davivienda | 44.680 | -1,8% |
CLH | 4.355 | -1,7% |
Grupo Argos ord | 18.360 | -1,6% |
Source: Grupo Bancolombia, Bloomberg. | Source: Grupo Bancolombia, Bloomberg. |
*To last night's closing level | *To last night's closing level |
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Equity Market
Balance in REPOS on local shares | REPOS and total shares outstanding of the underlying | |
stock | ||
Billions COP
1,760 | |||||
1,560 | |||||
1,360 | |||||
1,160 | |||||
960 | |||||
760 | |||||
560 | |||||
360 | |||||
Jan-10 | Jan-12 | Jan-14 | Jan-16 | Jan-18 | Jan-20 |
Source: Grupo Bancolombia, Bloomberg
Equity | Number of Shares | Shares | % |
in Repos | Outstanding | ||
PFAVAL | 126.020.797 | 7.116.706.674 | 1,8% |
CORFICOLCF | 2.815.679 | 279.912.944 | 1,0% |
CEMARGOS | 5.574.315 | 1.151.672.310 | 0,5% |
ISA | 4.825.930 | 1.107.677.894 | 0,4% |
PFDAVVNDA | 423.563 | 107.993.484 | 0,4% |
GEB | 21.233.600 | 9.181.177.017 | 0,2% |
GRUPOARGOS | 1.320.918 | 645.400.000 | 0,2% |
NUTRESA | 916.885 | 460.123.458 | 0,2% |
CELSIA | 1.830.685 | 1.069.972.554 | 0,2% |
Source: Grupo Bancolombia, Bloomberg
Our Coverage Universe
Equity | 9-ene. | Last review | 12-month target price | Expected | Total Return | Recommendation | |
Base | Var (%) | Dividend Yield | |||||
COLCAP | 1654 | nov.-19 | 1870 | 13,1% | |||
Avianca | $ 1.760 | nov.-19 | $ 3.230 | 83,5% | 0,0% | 83,5% | Overweight* |
Bogotá | $ 87.120 | nov.-19 | $ 86.200 | -1,1% | 4,5% | 3,4% | Underweight |
Canacol | $ 11.400 | nov.-19 | $ 15.380 | 34,9% | 0,0% | 34,9% | Overweight |
Celsia | $ 4.480 | nov.-19 | $ 5.500 | 22,8% | 4,2% | 27,0% | Overweight |
Cemargos | $ 6.810 | nov.-19 | $ 9.750 | 43,2% | 3,7% | 46,9% | Overweight |
Cemex Latam Holdings | $ 4.355 | nov.-19 | $ 9.200 | 111,3% | 0,0% | 111,3% | Overweight* |
Conconcreto | $ 477 | nov.-19 | N.A | N.A | N.A | N.A | Under review |
Corficol | $ 31.900 | nov.-19 | $ 35.600 | 11,6% | 5,1% | 16,7% | Overweight* |
Davivienda | $ 44.680 | nov.-19 | $ 45.300 | 1,4% | 2,1% | 3,5% | Underweight |
Ecopetrol | $ 3.345 | nov.-19 | $ 3.370 | 0,7% | 5,1% | 5,8% | Marketweight |
El Cóndor | $ 1.355 | dic.-19 | $ 3.330 | 145,8% | 3,9% | 149,6% | Overweight |
ENKA | $ 7,57 | nov.-19 | $ 19 | 152,3% | 0,0% | 152,3% | Overweight |
ETB | $ 274 | nov.-19 | $ 470 | 71,5% | 0,0% | 71,5% | Overweight* |
GEB | $ 2.280 | nov.-19 | $ 2.550 | 11,8% | 6,1% | 18,0% | Overweight |
Grupo Argos | $ 18.360 | nov.-19 | $ 22.000 | 19,8% | 2,0% | 21,8% | Marketweight |
ISA | $ 19.760 | nov.-19 | $ 20.500 | 3,7% | 2,9% | 6,7% | Underweight |
Nutresa | $ 25.020 | nov.-19 | $ 34.000 | 35,9% | 2,6% | 38,5% | Overweight |
Promigas | $ 8.000 | nov.-19 | $ 7.510 | -6,1% | 4,6% | -1,5% | Underweight |
Terpel | $ 10.320 | nov.-19 | $ 17.720 | 71,7% | 5,7% | 77,4% | Overweight |
* speculative |
Source: Grupo Bancolombia, Bloomberg
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Local Equity Market
Closing | Performance | Multiples | |||||||||||||
Mkt Cap | Volume | % | 1 YR ADTV | ||||||||||||
Index(Stock | Price | PE (x) | EV/EBITDA (x) | Div | |||||||||||
(US$ mn) | (US$) | Volume | 12 | 52 Weeks 52 Weeks | (US$) | ||||||||||
(COP) | Yield (%) | ||||||||||||||
1 Day | YTD | ||||||||||||||
Months | Min | Max | |||||||||||||
2019E | 2020E | 2019E | 2020E | 2019 | |||||||||||
COLCAP | 1.654 | 109.260 | - | - | -0,2% | -0,5% | 20,0% | 1.368,4 | 1.677,6 | 0,0 | 0,0 | 0,0 | 0,0 | - | 0,0 |
Avianca Holdings PF* | 1.760 | 539 | 48.193 | 0,1% | 0,0% | -4,1% | -1,1% | 1.035,0 | 2.015,0 | 9,0 | 3,0 | 5,3 | 5,3 | 2,8% | 288.768,0 |
Bancolombia | 43.300 | 12.962 | 1.477.685 | 3,8% | -0,4% | -1,6% | 31,3% | 32.220,0 | 45.500,0 | 12,4 | 10,9 | na | na | 2,5% | 2.647.970,4 |
Bancolombia PF | 44.540 | 12.962 | 9.982.111 | 25,9% | -2,3% | -2,8% | 32,1% | 32.460,0 | 47.000,0 | 12,7 | 11,2 | na | na | 2,5% | 6.359.199,5 |
Banco de Bogota | 87.120 | 8.863 | 191.407 | 0,5% | 1,3% | 2,3% | 50,2% | 56.100,0 | 90.000,0 | na | na | na | na | 4,4% | 245.043,2 |
BVC | 11.600 | 216 | 1.960 | 0,0% | 0,0% | 0,0% | -2,5% | 10.500,0 | 12.600,0 | na | 14,7 | na | na | 9,7% | 124.214,3 |
Canacol* | 11.400 | 628 | 132.053 | 0,3% | 0,9% | -4,7% | 12,9% | 9.520,0 | 13.000,0 | 15,3 | 6,4 | 6,1 | 3,7 | na | 355.490,2 |
Celsia* | 4.480 | 1.472 | 120.311 | 0,3% | 0,1% | 1,6% | 14,3% | 3.910,0 | 4.680,0 | 44,3 | 18,9 | 8,9 | 7,9 | 4,1% | 373.574,0 |
Cementos Argos* | 6.810 | 2.765 | 551.909 | 1,4% | -1,0% | -6,7% | -3,8% | 6.040,0 | 8.400,0 | 51,8 | 51,2 | 9,8 | 8,5 | 3,6% | 2.885.652,4 |
Cementos Argos PF | 5.550 | 2.765 | 18.110 | 0,0% | 0,9% | -2,3% | -1,2% | 4.990,0 | 7.320,0 | 30,6 | 35,2 | 10,8 | 11,2 | 4,4% | 170.600,6 |
CLH* | 4.355 | 773 | 113.960 | 0,3% | -1,7% | -1,1% | 15,5% | 3.670,0 | 5.640,0 | 37,2 | 16,3 | 7,7 | 7,2 | 0,0% | 262.044,5 |
Corficol | 31.900 | 2.904 | 1.306.925 | 3,4% | 1,3% | 3,6% | 108,5% | 14.832,2 | 32.000,0 | na | na | na | na | 5,2% | 705.980,9 |
Davivienda PF | 44.680 | 6.197 | 1.371.677 | 3,6% | -1,8% | -2,8% | 34,5% | 32.700,0 | 45.980,0 | 12,4 | 10,1 | na | na | 1,9% | 1.377.386,3 |
Ecopetrol* | 3.345 | 42.237 | 2.406.642 | 6,2% | 0,6% | 0,9% | 14,0% | 2.545,2 | 3.415,7 | 10,0 | 11,3 | 5,1 | 5,4 | 8,4% | 7.360.390,4 |
GEB* | 2.280 | 6.429 | 461.073 | 1,2% | 0,9% | 2,7% | 29,5% | 1.750,0 | 2.320,0 | 10,2 | 9,9 | 10,6 | 10,2 | na | 1.304.807,8 |
Éxito* | 13.600 | 1.869 | 26.196 | 0,1% | 1,5% | -2,0% | 6,8% | 12.600,0 | 17.980,0 | 23,4 | 14,0 | 0,7 | 5,7 | 2,3% | 2.371.614,9 |
Grupo Aval PF | 1.460 | 10.037 | 4.772.428 | 12,4% | 1,0% | 0,0% | 41,7% | 1.005,0 | 1.480,0 | 10,8 | 9,5 | 9,1 | 8,4 | 4,1% | 1.714.478,4 |
Grupo Sura | 33.400 | 5.809 | 942.614 | 2,4% | 0,0% | -1,8% | 3,5% | 31.020,0 | 37.500,0 | 11,2 | 9,4 | na | na | 1,6% | 2.929.334,1 |
Grupo Sura PF | 28.780 | 5.809 | 106.715 | 0,3% | -0,4% | -1,8% | -6,9% | 26.280,0 | 35.600,0 | 9,6 | 8,1 | na | na | 1,9% | 1.469.568,8 |
Grupo Argos | 18.360 | 4.509 | 1.691.808 | 4,4% | -1,6% | 3,1% | 8,0% | 15.120,0 | 18.980,0 | 25,2 | 24,7 | 16,8 | 16,6 | 1,9% | 1.655.730,7 |
Grupo Argos PF | 13.380 | 4.509 | 98.356 | 0,3% | 0,1% | -0,9% | -2,3% | 12.540,0 | 16.000,0 | na | na | na | na | 2,6% | 368.717,7 |
ISA* | 19.760 | 6.722 | 1.225.025 | 3,2% | 0,8% | 0,8% | 39,5% | 13.740,0 | 20.880,0 | 15,6 | 16,4 | 8,9 | 7,6 | 2,8% | 2.475.360,2 |
Nutresa* | 25.020 | 3.535 | 347.384 | 0,9% | 0,0% | -1,5% | 6,4% | 23.020,0 | 27.180,0 | 14,9 | 12,5 | 8,0 | 7,6 | 2,4% | 1.201.581,0 |
Promigas | 8.000 | 2.788 | 0 | 0,0% | -2,9% | 0,0% | 48,7% | 5.104,4 | 8.432,3 | na | na | na | na | 5,2% | 262.539,9 |
Mineros | 3.230 | 260 | 66.596 | 0,2% | -0,8% | -0,6% | 61,5% | 1.800,0 | 3.565,0 | na | na | na | na | 21,6% | 114.291,2 |
Non-index: | |||||||||||||||
Terpel* | 10.320 | 575 | 14.427 | 0,0% | 0,2% | 3,2% | 7,5% | 9.050,0 | 11.300,0 | 9,2 | 6,0 | 4,7 | 4,9 | 3,6% | 133.055,6 |
Conconcreto | 477 | 166 | 62.420 | 0,2% | -0,4% | 5,1% | 24,9% | 307,0 | 592,0 | na | na | na | na | 0,0% | 44.446,8 |
ETB | 274 | 299 | 79.839 | 0,2% | 5,4% | 5,8% | 7,9% | 194,0 | 300,0 | na | na | na | na | 0,0% | 69.585,7 |
Grupo Aval | 1.470 | 10.037 | 19.204 | 0,0% | 3,2% | 0,3% | 40,0% | 1.020,0 | 1.500,0 | 10,9 | 9,6 | 9,1 | 8,4 | 4,1% | 101.659,7 |
El Cóndor | 1.355 | 239 | 6.862 | 0,0% | 3,8% | 3,0% | 27,8% | 1.015,0 | 1.355,0 | na | na | na | na | 12,1% | 37.573,5 |
Enka* | 10 | 36 | 0 | 0,0% | 0,0% | 0,0% | 41,6% | 7,5 | 11,4 | 8,1 | 6,4 | 4,2 | 3,4 | 0,0% | 9.324,0 |
Fabricato | 6 | 16 | 0 | 0,0% | 0,0% | 10,0% | -15,4% | 5,0 | 8,0 | na | na | na | na | 0,0% | 8.009,3 |
HCOLSEL | 15.400 | 419 | 0 | 0,0% | 0,0% | -0,1% | 21,4% | 12524,0 | 15464,0 | na | na | na | na | na | 1.677.732,1 |
*P/E and EV/EBITDA estimated by Bancolombia |
Source: Grupo Bancolombia, Bloomberg
Economic Calendar and Forecasts
COUNT RY | INDICAT OR | UNIT | PERIOD | RELEASE | FORECAST | ACT UAL |
Trade Balance | USD Millones | Dec | 7/01/2020 | 6.28e+08 | 1.46e+09 | |
Copper Exports | USD Millones | Dec | 7/01/2020 | -- | 3.45e+09 | |
International Reserves | USD Millones | Dec | 7/01/2020 | -- | 4,0558E+14 | |
Chile | Exports Total | USD Millones | Dec | 7/01/2020 | -- | 6,644E+12 |
Imports Total | USD Millones | Dec | 7/01/2020 | -- | 5,184E+12 | |
Vehicle Sales Total | USD Millones | Dec | 7/01/2020 | -- | -- | |
CPI MoM | Porcentaje | Dec | 8/01/2020 | 0.2% | 0,10% | |
CPI YoY | Porcentaje | Dec | 8/01/2020 | 3.1% | 3% | |
Consumer Confidence Index | USD Millones | Dec | 7/01/2020 | -- | 3,9E+12 | |
El Salvador | International Reserves | Porcentaje | Dec | 8/01/2020 | -- | 0,01% |
CPI MoM | Porcentaje | Dec | 8/01/2020 | -- | 0,12% | |
CPI YoY | Porcentaje | Dec | 7/01/2020 | -- | 0,60% | |
CPI MoM | Porcentaje | Dec | 7/01/2020 | -- | 3,41% | |
CPI YoY | USD Millones | 3Q | 7/01/2020 | -- | -- | |
Guatemala | Current Account Balance | Porcentaje | Oct | 7/01/2020 | -- | -- |
Economic Activity Indx YoY NSA | Porcentaje | 3Q | 7/01/2020 | -- | -- | |
GDP YoY | USD Millones | Dec | 7/01/2020 | -- | -- | |
Guatemala Remittances YoY | USD Millones | Nov | 7/01/2020 | -- | -- | |
Trade Balance | Porcentaje | Nov | 9/01/2020 | -- | -- |
Source: Grupo Bancolombia, Bloomberg
Breakfast with Bancolombia
Colcap
The local equity market declined for third consecutive session in line with several of its LatAm peers, replicating the pattern observed the prior session after the White House speech moderated the fears on escalation of the political tensions with Iran. This is how the regional decline contrasted developed markets advance. All these happened amid a still reduced transactional dynamism and the absence of relevant local news.
The Colcap index declined by 0.21% to 1,653.54 pts, accumulating YTD variation of -0.53% in local currency and
0.33% in USD. The session traded COP 98,805.2 mn / USD 30.3 mn.
Best performers were: EXITO (1.49%), BOGOTA (1.30%) and CORFICOL (1.27%).
Main decliners were: PROMIGAS (-2.91%), PFBCOLOM (-2.32%) and PFDVVDA (-1.76%).
Mineros to sell Nechi project for USD 5.5 mn
Mineros announced having started to divest Operadora Minera, the only owner of its Nechi project for USD 5,5 mn to Para Resources. The sale would be carried out in two phases. A first before March 28, in which 60% of the property will be transferred. And a second one in which the remaining 40% will be transferred when the necessary permits or the development of a new work front are obtained. With the aforementioned Mineros expect to focus is local operations in its alluvial operation, representing now 85% of its total production.
Breakfast with Bancolombia
Sovereign Bonds & FX Market
FX Performance- USD/COP y USD/BRL
USDCOP | USDBRL |
3.600 | 4,40 |
3.500 | 4,09 |
4,20 | |
3.400 | |
4,00 | |
3.300 | 3.257 |
3,80 | |
3.200 | |
3.100 | 3,60 |
3.000 | 3,40 |
15-Aug22-Aug29-Aug5-Sep12-Sep19-Sep26-Sep3-Oct10-Oct17-Oct24-Oct | 31-Oct7-Nov14-Nov21-Nov28-Nov5-Dec12-Dec19-Dec26-Dec2-Jan9-Jan |
Source: Grupo Bancolombia, Bloomberg
Commodity Prices by Category (Base 100, 12 months)
Agricultural | Precious Metals | |||
130 | Industrial Metals | Energy | ||
120 | ||||
110 | ||||
100 | ||||
90 | ||||
80 | ||||
Jan-19 | Apr-19 | Jul-19 | Oct-19 | Jan-20 |
Source: Grupo Bancolombia, Bloomberg
Fixed Income - TES Yield Curve (%)
2-ene.-20 | 9-ene.-20 | |||||
7,20% | ||||||
6,80% | ||||||
6,50% | ||||||
6,40% | 6,38% | |||||
6,10% | ||||||
6,00% | 5,80% | 6,12% | 6,28% | |||
5,60% | 5,34% | 5,90% | ||||
5,62% | ||||||
5,20% | 4,99% | 5,17% | ||||
4,80% | 4,88% | |||||
4,40% | ||||||
4,00% | 4,00% | |||||
jun-32 | ||||||
jul-20 | may-22 | jul-24 | ago-26 | abr-28 | sep-30 | |
Var bp | ||||||
10 | -11 | -18 | -18 | -20 | -26 | -22 |
Source: Grupo Bancolombia, Bloomberg
Commodity Prices by Category (var%)
Units | 09-Jan-20 | Daily | YTD | |
Reference Index | ||||
CRB Index | unit | 183,6 | 0,1% | -1,8% |
Energy | ||||
WTI | US$/bbl | 59,6 | -0,1% | -3,4% |
Brent | US$/bbl | 65,4 | -0,1% | -4,5% |
Coal | US$/tn | 69,0 | 2,8% | 1,8% |
Industrial Metals | ||||
Copper | US$/lb | 280,2 | -0,4% | -1,1% |
Precious Metals | ||||
Gold | US$/oz | 1554,3 | -0,4% | 2,4% |
Silver | US$/oz | 17,9 | -1,3% | -0,4% |
Agriculture | ||||
Coffee Arabica | cent US$/lb | 117,4 | -1,5% | -11,2% |
Wheat | cent US$/lb | 562,3 | 1,7% | 1,1% |
Corn | cent US$/bu | 383,3 | -0,3% | -1,3% |
Sugar | Usd/lb | 13,7 | 1,8% | 1,3% |
Source: Grupo Bancolombia, Bloomberg.
Economic, Industry and Market Research
Juan Pablo Espinosa Arango
Chief Economist and Head of Economic, Industry and Market Research
juespino@bancolombia.com.co
+571 7463991 ext. 37313
Economic research
Diego Fernando Zamora Díaz Head of Economic Research diezamor@Bancolombia.com.co +571 7463997 ext. 37319
Arturo Yesid González Peña
Quantitative Analyst
arygonza@bancolombia.com.co
+571 7463980 ext 37385
Santiago Espitia Pinzón
Macroeconomic Analyst
sespitia@bancolombia.com.co
+ 571 7463988 ext. 37315
Bryan Hurtado Campuzano
International and Regional Analyst
brhurtd@bancolombia.com.co
+571 7463980 ext. 37303
Juan Manuel Pacheco Perez
International and Markets Analyst
jupachec@bancolombia.com.co
+571 7464322 ext. 37380
Juan Camilo Meneses Cortes
Central Banking and Financial System
Analyst
juamenes@bancolombia.com.co
+571 7463994 ext. 37316
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Interrn
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Industry Research
Jhon Fredy Escobar Posada Head of Agroindustry Research jhescoba@bancolombia.com.co +574 4044649 ext 44649
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Head of Commerce Research nipineda@bancolombia.com.co +574 4042985 ext 42985
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Commerce Industry Analyst juneira@bancolombia.com.co
Paolo Betancur Montoya
Agroindustry Analyst
pabetanc@bancolombia.com.co
Javier David Villegas
Real Estate and Hotels Analyst javilleg@Bancolombia.com.co
Research Assistant
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Research Editor
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+574 6048904
Equity Research
Jairo Julián Agudelo Restrepo
Head of Equity Research
jjagudel@bancolombia.com.co
+574 6047048
Diego Alexander Buitrago Aguilar
Energy Analyst
diebuit@bancolombia.com.co
+571 7463984
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Financial Sector Analyst
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Cement & Infrastructure Analyst
juaguila@bancolombia.com.co
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Oil & Gas & Airlines Analyst
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Junior Analyst
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Intern
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The information and opinions in this research report constitute a judgment as of the date indicated and are subject to change without notice. The information may therefore not be accurate or current. Future projections, estimates, and forecasts are subject to several risks and uncertainties that prevent us from ensuring that they will prove correct or accurate, or that the information, interpretations, and knowledge on which they are based will be valid. In that sense, actual results may substantially differ from the forward-looking statements contained here. You should be aware of the fact that investments in securities or other financial instruments involve risks. Past results do not guarantee future performance.
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As regards to conflicts of interest, we declare that (i) Valores Bancolombia S.A. Comisionista de Bolsa and/or Banca de Inversión Bancolombia S.A. Corporación Financiera have participated in structuring or underwriting/placing equity securities for Bancolombia S.A., (ii) Grupo Bancolombia is the beneficial owner of 10% or more of the shares issued by Valores Simesa S.A., and Proteccion S.A., (iii) Bancolombia is one of the biggest shareholders of Fondo Inmobiliario Colombia - FIC, and (iv) Valores Bancolombia S.A. Comisionista de Bolsa is a wholly owned subsidiary of Bancolombia S.A. Nevertheless, it has been prepared by our Analysis Bancolombia department team based on strict internal policies that require from us objectivity and neutrality, as well as independence from our areas of brokerage and investment banking.
The information contained in this report is not based, does not include nor has been structured based on privileged or confidential information. Any opinions or projections contained herein are solely attributable to the author and have been prepared independently and autonomously in the light of the information available at the time.
The content of this message does not constitute a professional recommendation to make investments according to the terms of article 2.39.1.1.2 of the Decree 2555 of 2010 or the regulations that modify, replace or complement it.
Rating System
The investment recommendation on the issuers under coverage by Analysis Bancolombia is governed by the rating system presented below, subject to the following criteria:
The upside potential is the percentage difference between the target price of securities issued by a particular issuer and their market price. The target price is not a forecast of the price of a stock, but a fundamental independent valuation made by Analysis Bancolombia, which seeks to reflect the fair price the market should pay for the shares on a given date.
Based on an analysis of the relative upside potential amongst the securities of companies under coverage and the COLCAP index, the ratings of the assets are determined as follows:
Overweight: when the upside potential of a stock exceeds by 5% or more the return potential of the COLCAP index.
Market Weight: when the upside potential of a stock does not differ by more than 5% from the return potential of the COLCAP index.
Underweight: when the upside potential of a stock is 5% or more below the return potential of the COLCAP index.
Under Review: the company's coverage is under review and therefore there's no rating or target price.
Additionally, at the discretion of the analyst, the speculative qualification that complements the recommendation will continue to be used, taking into account the risks seen in the performance of the asset, its future development and the volatility the movement of the stock may show.
The fundamental potential of the index is determined based on the methodology established by the BVC for the calculation of the COLCAP index, considering the target prices published by Analysis Bancolombia. This will be made with the Colcap basket on the dates of calculation May and November of every year. For the companies part of the index but not covered, the consensus of market analysts will be used.
Currently, Analysis Bancolombia has 19 companies under coverage, distributed as follows:
Overweight | Market Weight | Underweight | Under Review | |
Number of issuers with ratings of: | 12 | 2 | 4 | 1 |
Percentage of issuers with ratings of: | 63.2% | 10.5% | 21.1% | 5.3% |
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Bancolombia SA published this content on 10 January 2020 and is solely responsible for the information contained therein. Distributed by Public, unedited and unaltered, on 10 January 2020 13:52:04 UTC
