Lockdowns are back in several countries or geographical areas, with worrying indications from Tokyo, Scotland and South Korea.

However, it looks like the main indices on Wall Street are to begin the first trading session of 2021 on a positive note as investors welcome news of vaccine rollouts and fiscal stimulus.

This weekend, Donald Trump reached a new low. He asked the Secretary of State of Georgia to “find” the necessary votes to invalidate Joe Biden's victory in the state. Little did he know that a recording of the call would later be published by The Washington Post. Donald Trump has not yet addressed the growing scandal. Some lawyers told the press that this could constitute a criminal offense.

The wait-and-see attitude that sometimes prevails at the dawn of a new year will probably not be seen in 2021 because the important political deadlines for financial markets are very close. As early as tomorrow, a crucial vote will take place in Georgia for the control of the US Senate. Two seats are at stake. At present, the Republicans hold 50 seats against 48 for the Democrats. If the Democrats win the two vacant seats, they will level the playing field in the upper house. But the ties will be decided by the Senate President, Joe Biden's Vice President, Kamala Harris. The Democrats would therefore have de facto control of both houses, which would result in a very different political equation than if Republicans were to retain a parliamentary blocking power. Following this vote, the new president of the United States will be inaugurated on January 20. 

The year starts on the December manufacturing PMIs of the world's major economies accompanied by construction spending in the United States.

PMIs so far are generally positive, the manufacturing sector is growing for the sixth consecutive month in Europe and is at its highest level since May 2018. Germany played a leading role in this growth despite tighter containment. German plants did not close and allowed the index to grow to levels not seen for three years at 58.2. This growth was partly due to strong British demand before the end of Brexit's transition.

In Japan, the final manufacturing GDP reached neutrality at 50 points, against 49.7 anticipated. In China, the Caixin manufacturing PMI index disappointed, at 53 points against 54.7 expected. This morning, Singapore reported a 5.8% contraction of its GDP in 2020, slightly less than the consensus had feared (-6%).