After two weeks of strong gains on hopes of progress in the talks between Russia and Ukraine, the European markets have finally paused in this weekly sequence. Traders are trying to digest the Federal Reserve's first monetary tightening, the continuing clashes, the sanctions against Russia and the new surge in oil prices. Risk appetite has therefore dissipated somewhat, in favor of more defensive sectors, but volatility has been significantly reduced over the month.
Weekly variations*
DJ INDUSTRIAL
34861.24  +0.31%
Chart DJ INDUSTRIAL
NASDAQ 100
14754.31  +2.32%
Chart NASDAQ 100
FTSE 100
7483.35  +1.06%
Chart FTSE 100
GOLD
1957.69$  +2.02%
Chart GOLD
WTI
112.64$  +5.96%
Chart WTI
EURO / US DOLLAR
1.10$  -0.54%
Chart EURO / US DOLLAR
This week's gainers and losers
  • GameStop (+57%): This was another crazy week for the star of meme stocks. Shares bounced back with no particular justification other than a snowball effect, and then soared after Chairman Ryan Cohen's announcement of a 100,000 share buyout by his investment firm.
  • Allegheny (+25%): Berkshire Hathaway acquired insurance holding company Alleghany Corporation for $11.6 billion in cash. Warren Buffett, who says he's been following this company for 60 years, is delighted with the acquisition.
  • Tesla (+12%): The car manufacturer just inaugurated its 5th "Gigafactory" and the first in Europe, in Germany. It took only 22 months from the laying of the foundation stone to the first vehicle rolling off the production line.  
  • Anglo American (+8.17%): Under pressure from investors to exit its coal businesses across the globe, the miner got rid of its entire stake in its South African coal mines into Thungela. It also rose this week due to higher oil prices.
  • Shopify (-10%): The stock fell sharply this week, but this is mostly a consolidation after the very big rebound (+44%) of the previous week. 
  • Okta (-20.7%) the US identity and access management software company, has been the target of a large-scale hack. Several hundred of its customers could be affected by the data theft. It fell 20.7% in 5 days.
Chart Commodities
Commodities
Oil prices have resumed their upward trend, due to supply problems in the Black Sea. On the other hand, if the European Union is working to reduce its dependence on Russian hydrocarbons, it has no intention of imposing a total embargo on Russian oil, which has curbed this buying fever at the end of the week. Russia provides 30% of European oil needs. 

Metal prices have also resumed their upward trajectory. The resurgence of the Covid-19 pandemic continues to disrupt supply in China, a constraint that exacerbates tensions on supply chains, which are already strained by the Russia-Ukraine war. This supply shock, which is characterized by less short-term availability, is pressing prices higher. Copper is trading at USD 10,420, aluminum at USD 3670 and zinc at USD 4140. Nickel, which regularly reaches its daily trading limit (now set at +/- 15%), is trading at USD 37,200.

In agricultural commodities, on the contrary, it is time to relax and stabilize. Wheat is trading around 1080 cents per bushel in Chicago. In Europe, the European Commission said that wheat yields are above their five-year average, a trend that should continue due to generally favorable weather in the region. 
Chart Commodities
Macroeconomics
Thought you wouldn't hear from Fed boss Jerome Powell this week? Nope, he gave another speech on Monday, and spared no effort to make financial markets understand that the Fed would probably accelerate its rate hikes to calm inflation. All this communication was probably carefully orchestrated: flexibility first, firmness second. On the investor side, the ploy worked rather well, since it pushed stocks higher. There is no alternative to stocks (the famous "TINA" concept), it seems the market is saying. 

There were other surprising elements this week. Like the strength of the PMI activity indicators for major economies, even though the surveys were conducted among purchasing managers of large companies from March 11, in the midst of the war in Ukraine. Apparently, the end of pandemic-related restrictions outweighed fears about the conflict. 

In the foreign exchange market, the dollar continued to rise against the yen, reaching JPY 122.1 by the end of the week. The ruble saw a small improvement after Vladimir Putin asked Russian fossil fuel buyers to settle the bill in his country's currency. It currently takes 99 RUB for 1 USD. The EUR/USD pair has been fluctuating gently around the 1.10 pivot. 

The Fed's hawkish stance helped push the yield on 10-year debt in the US back up to 2.46%. In Germany, the Bund rose to 0.56% while in France, the OAT flirted again with 1%.

On the crypto-currency side, we're seeing renewed energy this week, with bitcoin recovering almost 10% and returning to a position around $45,000 at the time of writing. But the crypto-currency still seems tied to the Nasdaq. Correlated for many weeks to the US technology index, but with much higher volatility, bitcoin is proving, even more so during this hot geopolitical environment, that it is not a safe haven.

Two important statistics are in sight next week in the US: February PCE inflation (Thursday) and March employment figures (Friday). In Europe, the focus will be on the preliminary March inflation numbers, particularly for Germany (Wednesday) and the Eurozone (Friday).
Historical Chart
Apocalypse (not) now
This week was marked by a rebound in equity markets and a return to calm in the minds of investors after the volatility of recent weeks. Jerome Powell is getting serious. To counter inflation, he announced a faster than expected rate hike, in half points instead of quarter points, for a total increase of up to 2.5 points by the end of the year. These rate hikes seem rather accommodating in the face of rising inflation. As a result, the apocalypse is being postponed. Even the IMF is saying that the global economy should escape recession this year. The clouds seem to be clearing a bit, but good weather should never be taken for granted.
Things to read this week
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Every time I place a buy order for a stock pic.twitter.com/qkDU9fFKFE — Dr. Parik Patel, BA, CFA, ACCA Esq. March 16,... Read more
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*The weekly movements of indexes and stocks displayed on the dashboard are related to the period ranging from the open on Monday to the sending time of this newsletter on Friday.
The weekly movements of commodities, precious metals and currencies displayed on the dashboard are related to a 7-day rolling period from Friday to Friday, until the sending time of this newsletter. These assets continue to quote on weekends.