NAPERVILLE, Illinois, July 12 (Reuters) - The U.S. Department of Agriculture made an atypical reduction to U.S. corn yield on Wednesday because of last month’s unusually dry weather, though next month’s estimate will give a more precise reading on the crop.
USDA pegged U.S. corn yield at 177.5 bushels per acre, down from the trendline yield of 181.5 but still a record by 0.8 bpa, and that could be supported in future outlooks by this month’s favorably mild, wet weather.
This was the first time July U.S. corn yield landed below the June figure since USDA’s current methodology began 10 years ago, though June yield was lower than in May twice (2013, 2019) because of slow planting.
Over the last decade, U.S. corn yield in August was lower than in July four times, including the past two years. The Corn Belt was notably dry in one of those Julys and near normal in the rest, and temperatures were also within normal range.
The recent years with higher August corn yields versus July have featured some sizable moves. Yield rose 2% in 2019 and 2020 and 2.5% in 2018, though it was up more than 4% in 2016, which was the Midwest’s wettest-ever July-August period.
The government's corn and soybean yields will rely heavily on survey data next month and field observations will be added in September. Field visits also occurred in August prior to 2019, though there is no evidence this change has reduced analysts’ ability to anticipate yield adjustments.
Last month was the Midwest’s driest June since 1988, though USDA left U.S. soybean yield untouched from the 52-bpa trendline. That is the first time in nine years that the July yield would represent a new record, which could possibly impact August’s recent rising bias.
August soybean yield has come in lower than in July only twice in the past 10 years (2013, 2021). The years where yields increased have even included a couple of abnormally dry Julys, but those dry Julys followed wet Junes and preceded wet Augusts.
The all-time high U.S. bean yield of 51.9 bpa was set in 2016, though USDA published that same number last August before the final yield was whittled to 49.5. The only higher August print came in 2020 at 53.3 bpa.
Forecasts on Wednesday show normal-to-cool temperatures prevailing across most of the Corn Belt through at least the next week. Precipitation opportunities will be heavier in the east versus west, but recent rains and milder temperatures should continue to support western corn in pollination. Karen Braun is a market analyst for Reuters. Views expressed above are her own. (Reporting by Karen Braun Editing by Matthew Lewis)
