Rabobank has published a new report on the global pork industry, looking at the industry outlook in the wake of PEDv and Russian ban.

In the report, the bank’s Food & Agribusiness Research team says that the global pork market experienced a mixed 2014:

  • the porcine epidemic diarrhea virus (PEDv) drove prices to all-time highs in the Americas and parts of Southeast Asia,
  • the Russian ban induced an oversupply environment in the EU,
  • continued weakness in China.

In 2015, Rabobank predicts that turbulence will remain, with uncertainty about possible reemergence of PEDv, developments regarding African swine fever (ASF), the Russian ban, and exchange rate developments across the globe.

“Our expectations are that markets, driven by production growth after PEDv, will cool further and result in price pressure in Q1 2015,” says Albert Vernooij, animal protein analyst.

  • In the U.S. and Mexico, the size of recovery after PEDv will dictate local markets with recovering production and further declining prices. Especially in the U.S., the increased price competitiveness will be partly offset by the strengthening U.S. dollar. However, with declining feed costs the outlook for producer profitability remains positive.
  • EU prospects remain weak for 1Q 2015, with continuing pressured consumption. The only positive signs are the drop of the value of the euro and the resuming negotiations of Russia with individual EU countries to partly reopen the market, both of which would support exports.
  • Brazil and China will experience a positive Q1. The Brazilian industry will be supported by positive domestic and export demand. In China, the declining sow herd will only be partly compensated by increasing sow productivity, resulting in pressured production which will support prices.

For more information about this publication please contact Albert Vernooij at albert.vernooij@rabobank.com or +31 30 71 23834

Rabobank Group is a global financial services leader providing wholesale and retail banking, leasing, real estate services, and renewable energy project financing. Founded over a century ago, Rabobank is one of the largest banks in the world, with nearly $1 trillion in assets and operations in more than 40 countries. In North America, Rabobank is a premier bank to the food, beverage and agribusiness industry. Rabobank’s Food & Agribusiness Research and Advisory team is comprised of more than 80 analysts around the world who provide expert analysis, insight and counsel to Rabobank clients about trends, issues and developments in all sectors of agriculture. www.rabobank.com/f&a

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